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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

No thread on Friday but GEFS-EPS ensembles have decent interior snowfall for 96+ hours away.  Euro and GGEM continue steady for the event and 06z GFS working its way west. 

Waiting on results for today before looking ahead. 

Thanks Walt.

Interesting to see both the EURO and CMC show 4 to 10 inch accumulations in the tri state despite the low essentially riding the coast into LI. Even with the track the majority of the Tri state stays snow on both models.

I think that last storm to produce that much snow with that type of coastal running track was December 30 2000 (just in track not intensity or speed).

CurrSur-1600Z-30Dec00.jpg.2dc04e9706cd24aa86836642a1763ca0.jpg

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26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Walt.

Interesting to see both the EURO and CMC show 4 to 10 inch accumulations in the tri state despite the low essentially riding the coast into LI. Even with the track the majority of the Tri state stays snow on both models.

I think that last storm to produce that much snow with that type of coastal running track was December 30 2000 (just in track not intensity or speed).

CurrSur-1600Z-30Dec00.jpg.2dc04e9706cd24aa86836642a1763ca0.jpg

Feb 2021 big snowstorm had a low really tucked in

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Just now, MJO812 said:

Feb 2021 big snowstorm had a low really tucked in

Yup. Can happen as the models depicted. I chose Dec. 2000 given the progressive nature of the system, transfer from inland primary and ultimate track over eastern LI. 

Of course we could flip to rain or more likely dry slot, but I would gladly take 2 to 4 on the front end.

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The 6z EPS is really tucked in. With no -NAO block and a SE ridge, the risk here is an inland runner IMO, could be wrong, but I think that’s the risk

Quite possible but the euro and eps have a tendency of overamping storms.

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Walt.

Interesting to see both the EURO and CMC show 4 to 10 inch accumulations in the tri state despite the low essentially riding the coast into LI. Even with the track the majority of the Tri state stays snow on both models.

I think that last storm to produce that much snow with that type of coastal running track was December 30 2000 (just in track not intensity or speed).

CurrSur-1600Z-30Dec00.jpg.2dc04e9706cd24aa86836642a1763ca0.jpg

For all the snow we had last year, I think just one was all snow at the coast. The rest all had mixing in some part of it. If we have cold air going into the storm and the snow shield is heavy and not shredded we can pile it up fast before any changeover. The Dec storm last winter was something of a disappointment here since the snow shield went shredded and allowed the warm air to take over sooner. 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The 6z EPS is really tucked in. With no -NAO block and a SE ridge, the risk here is an inland runner IMO, could be wrong, but I think that’s the risk

 

Its not especially common to have an inland running Miller B...we usually either straight up fail because it redevelops at too far north a latitude or goes OTS....there are a few instances of classic Miller Bs which went over top of us or just west but its not a very long list.  They've tended to occur when the western ridge is on or off the W Coast vs over the Rockies.  What MAY happen here is this simply does not become a true Miller B and the primary goes way into OH/PA..

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36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Progressive flow counteracts that risk.

A whiff is much more probable imo 

Maybe, the ridge out west is very shallow and not particularly tall and amplified...but the shortwave drops in fairly far west in ID/MT/WY that despite that it has the time to still sharpen...as usual without the -NAO and a stout west ridge there are small differences which will impact this

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

MJO looks to stay around 7 to 8 occasionally so should be a back and forth pattern.

Potential for snows will exist through mid Jan probably the 20th. I still think late late and Feb are toast.

this winter is going too have uneven and unusual snowfall totals in the northeast and mid atlantic we are going in that direction already,,,,,,

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16 minutes ago, romba said:

Ukie looks way flatter for Friday, hard to tell how it progressed on the 24 hr panels though. Flatter/OTS seems to be the way that storm is trending with the GFS leading the way, lots of time for changes though.

 

GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

Gfs is an outlier to its ensembles 

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The ski resorts in the Poconos may have to shut down, maybe for the season if there is no snow this upcoming week. Making snow for their base only to see it gone by a typical January thaw is not productive and become really expensive especially in this Covid climate too. The only saving grace was the nearly one inch of rain we got last week in the drought stricken areas of Eastern PA to allow further pumping of water out of the ground or out of the streams to replenish the artificial snow base. Lets hope this progressive pattern goes away. 

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The 500 mb pattern with the ridge bridge near Alaska to Greenland can work for us with the right storm track. We also have another +PNA spike over the Rockies. So this may be our best shot of the season so far if things work out. While it’s not a perfect match, the Euro 500 mb pattern on Friday almost has a Feb 14 type look. Hopefully, we can put something together. 
 

7891692A-7C47-48AE-8376-26290732BCF3.thumb.png.b39702bd18a418f4bb530dbedb4fdb31.png
A6A270E1-CFFB-472E-8DE7-FE082BDEF4E7.gif.78f3a539c8cc1f15d5aea2bc2b47ebd0.gif

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