HeadInTheClouds Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Up here in Albany visiting family. 31 with flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Was 58 earlier with sun and birds chirping, down to 52 now with the CAA beginning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: 60 degrees here right now. I just went for a run outside with a t-shirt on, and it's possible I could be shoveling snow tomorrow. A Colorado-like weather swing that's becoming much more common for our area. Yeah I was riding my bike, felt pretty good. I have to remind myself it's early Jan, and to get near home before the cold air sweeps in, I felt the change beginning by 230. Been trying to enjoy those 55+ winter days but reality is on the horizon. If it comes with snow I'll take the tradeoff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 Not threading Jan 7 til i get a handle, either 9P tonight or 6A or 6P Monday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Borrowed this image from the New England Region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Borrowed this image from the New England Region Is there blocking? Still a decent amount in western NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 GFS is southeast of the NYC metro again with the 7th, but it had the storm at least, unlike 12z which basically lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: More day 8-10 volatility on the EPS recently than we usually see. Such big 500 mb jumps may mean that it’s still struggling with the Pacific forcing. Very challenging combination of factors for the models to resolve. New run Old run Pretty ugly after the late week threat 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Noticeably colder air is now overspreading the region. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy, breezy, and cold. A snowstorm passing to the south could bring a period of light snow. Farther south, a moderate to significant snowfall is possible in parts of the Middle Atlantic region. Snowfall estimates include: Atlantic City: 5"-10" Baltimore: 3"-6" Islip: 1"-2" New York City: 0.5" or less Newark: 0.5" or less Norfolk: 1" or less Philadelphia: 2"-4" Richmond: 3"-6" Salisbury: 5"-10" Washington, DC: 4"-8" Wilmington, DE: 3"-6" Washington, DC will likely see among its highest snowfall amounts the day following a high temperature of 63° or above (today's high temperature). The five biggest such snowfalls are: 1. 5.7", February 17, 1967 2. 4.0", March 21, 1943 3. 3.3", March 16, 2014 4. 2.5", February 11, 1955 5. 1.9", March 24, 1990 The January mark is 1.5", which was set on January 20, 1915. Should Washington, DC receive measurable snow prior to the end of today, the coming storm would mark the first time on record that January saw measurable snowfall both on the day of a 60° or above high temperature and the day after, and only the 3rd time on record. This would also be the first case when the temperature reached 63° or above. January has commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the overall tendency toward cooler weather will occur. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly could be near or even somewhat below normal. Late in the first week of January, the PNA could go positive. As that happens, the prospects for measurable snowfall could increase. Since 1990, 66% of days with 1" or more snow in New York City occurred when the PNA was positive. In addition, 81% of days with 4" or more snow occurred when the PNA was positive. The latest guidance continues to suggest that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada during that time. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. Modified Arctic air could reach the Middle Atlantic region during the second week of January. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -2.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.484 today. On December 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.044 (RMM). The December 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.887 (RMM). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 hours ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, that's fascinating. Really interesting stuff. it's called coming full circle lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 hours ago, weathermedic said: JFK broke their record high temp for the day with 59 degrees. Old record was 57. They could have a couple of inches of snow on the ground by this time tomorrow. so close to 60 but I think we already hit 60 last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 hours ago, dseagull said: Hmmm... back to Central Jersey Coast jackpot zone this year? Tom's River to ACY look to be sitting pretty. thats still very good for the south shore of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 hours ago, lee59 said: Quite a snow event just to our south. Areas not to far from us will possibly get double digit amounts. Some models even have our southern and coastal areas getting as much as 2-4 inches. Should be interesting to watch in such a non event winter so far. south shore of nassau looks good here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Noticeably colder air is now overspreading the region. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy, breezy, and cold. A snowstorm passing to the south could bring a period of light snow. Farther south, a moderate to significant snowfall is possible in parts of the Middle Atlantic region. Snowfall estimates include: Atlantic City: 5"-10" Baltimore: 3"-6" Islip: 1"-2" New York City: 0.5" or less Newark: 0.5" or less Norfolk: 1" or less Philadelphia: 2"-4" Richmond: 3"-6" Salisbury: 5"-10" Washington, DC: 4"-8" Wilmington, DE: 3"-6" Washington, DC will likely see among its highest snowfall amounts the day following a high temperature of 63° or above (today's high temperature). The five biggest such snowfalls are: 1. 5.7", February 17, 1967 2. 4.0", March 21, 1943 3. 3.3", March 16, 2014 4. 2.5", February 11, 1955 5. 1.9", March 24, 1990 The January mark is 1.5", which was set on January 20, 1915. Should Washington, DC receive measurable snow prior to the end of today, the coming storm would mark the first time on record that January saw measurable snowfall both on the day of a 60° or above high temperature and the day after, and only the 3rd time on record. This would also be the first case when the temperature reached 63° or above. January has commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the overall tendency toward cooler weather will occur. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly could be near or even somewhat below normal. Late in the first week of January, the PNA could go positive. As that happens, the prospects for measurable snowfall could increase. Since 1990, 66% of days with 1" or more snow in New York City occurred when the PNA was positive. In addition, 81% of days with 4" or more snow occurred when the PNA was positive. The latest guidance continues to suggest that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada during that time. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. Modified Arctic air could reach the Middle Atlantic region during the second week of January. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -2.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.484 today. On December 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.044 (RMM). The December 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.887 (RMM). I see you upped your totals Don.... think we could get 2 inches or more here on the south shore 4 miles SE of JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I see you upped your totals Don.... think we could get 2 inches or more here on the south shore 4 miles SE of JFK? I suspect you'll see 1"-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 EPS comes around beyond that. Not quite as good as yesterday but it's still good. It's in the process of retrograding that ridge to the west coast during that time posted above. It's not certain how long the western ridge will last however. Hopefully we can make the most of it. It's hinting at retrograding it further into the Pacific towards the end. Albeit with a trough still in the east. Mid month looks good. Closer to the end of the month, might not. We'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, EasternLI said: EPS comes around beyond that. Not quite as good as yesterday but it's still good. It's in the process of retrograding that ridge to the west coast during that time posted above. It's not certain how long the western ridge will last however. Hopefully we can make the most of it. It's hinting at retrograding it further into the Pacific towards the end. Albeit with a trough still in the east. Mid month looks good. Closer to the end of the month, might not. We'll see how it goes. Eps is fine in the long range . Nice ridge. Not ugly at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, nyrangers1022 said: Is there blocking? Still a decent amount in western NY Not sure on the blocking. Hopefully the parent low in western NY transfers over to the costal in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is fine in the long range . Nice ridge. Not ugly at all. Noticed that ridge trying to retrograde a little more at the very end. That's all I was trying to say. It does still look good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 We're not necessarily going to see storms like tomorrow in the long-range anomaly charts. Averaging also skews and masks the details. But the details are everything with local weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Re Jan 7: Mentioned this in the banter... Sensitivity - to me - resides two fold: one is in the correct handling of the western N/A ridge aspect as the PNA enters mode change during this week. That can be a problem as to the true arc extent of the ridge envelopment; particularly if/when ejecting a very potent mid/u/a/ S/W through the field - if handled improperly and is bigger ... the burgeoning does so immediately aft of the S/W which is an accelerating constructive feed-back. Moreover feel the antecedent table is setting with height reduction/resistance over the Gulf/FL/ and adjacent Atlantic. These S-SE regions down toward lower 580s dam, with less than 50 kts balance geo-str wind, signals less destructive interference. Watch out for rapid rising PNA with nested mechanics! We await the the ridge amplitude and the following... 2ndly, the bifurcation in the 30 to 40 hour range wrt to the SPV over the NE Pac. The PNA changing mode disrupts that...and recent GFS operational takes the ballast on a retrograde motion, whilst the Euro cluster takes more SE as our S/W in question. Depending on which is crucial. I suspect the Euro at this range, however, given to it's superior resolution and correction/tech in play. Basically... watch this for more than merely SNE and points NE for impact. Plenty of time... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Pretty ugly after the late week threat The cold air in canada lifts out, then we go zonal. I never trusted the cold looks progged that we were supposed to be in the midst of now, nor do I trust the cold that is supposed to arrive post day 10. Mirages this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: More day 8-10 volatility on the EPS recently than we usually see. Such big 500 mb jumps may mean that it’s still struggling with the Pacific forcing. Very challenging combination of factors for the models to resolve. New run Old run Going to need to wait for the pna to go poleward closer to the 15th. Next week might have a few mild days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 11 hours ago, Allsnow said: Fine details like that will only be fined tuned as we get closer. But overall, it had the correct idea. Biggest issues is that people are going to expect it to be correct next time lol Yea, I figured the GFS was doing it’s normal, notorious wave spacing screw up….it was the only model showing it. I was wrong lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Eps is fine in the long range . Nice ridge. Not ugly at all. Days 10-15. Ok. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: Days 10-15. Ok. 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: Days 10-15. Ok. Not sure why he thought what he posted somehow invalidates your previous post that it turns mild for a time before that but whatever… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 A little over 3 days away and the Euro and GFS with completely different depictions of what is going to happen Thursday night/Friday morning lol let’s see who wins this one. I will say this, now that today’s storm really blew up more than expected up the coast, it may help to push the baroclinic zone way off shore. Guess we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and cold today A storm passing to the south will bring a moderate to significant snowfall from Richmond to central New Jersey. Light snow is likely in New York City, Newark, and nearby suburbs. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 34° Newark: 33° Philadelphia: 33° Snowfall estimates include: Atlantic City: 5"-10" Baltimore: 3"-6" Islip: 1"-2" New York City-JFK: 1”-2” New York City-LGA: 0.5” or less New York City-NYC: 0.5" or less Newark: 0.5" or less Norfolk: 1" or less Philadelphia: 2"-4" Richmond: 3"-6" Salisbury: 4"-8" Washington, DC: 4"-8" Wilmington, DE: 3"-6" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 No thread on Friday but GEFS-EPS ensembles have decent interior snowfall for 96+ hours away. Euro and GGEM continue steady for the event and 06z GFS working its way west. Waiting on results for today before looking ahead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 33degs.(28/38) or just Normal>>>-2 nowadays. Reached 60 here yesterday. Today: 34 down to 23 by tomorrow AM, wind nne. and breezy, snow 2" south from 10am-4pm. 34*(58%RH) here at 6am. 33* at 7am. 32* at 8am. 28* at 4pm. Never more than snow flurries, no white anywhere. 24* at 10am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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