MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: The Monday event is “ticking” NW today because of the SE ridge press and lack of a -NAO block….this is why the risk for Friday is an inland runner, I think that event most likely ends up further west than what the Euro and the other models are showing right now as we get closer to that event. Models underestimating the SE ridge until we get right up to the event. Once that shortwave amps for Friday’s event, there’s no -NAO block to force secondary redevelopment off shore or tame the SE ridge. If there’s any thunderstorm blowups over the SE as the storm develops, the latent heat release aloft from the t-storms pumps the SE ridge even more You called me a weenie for saying this current storm is going to come north. There will be a limit due to the fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 36degs.(32/40), or +3>>>+1 nowadays. Reached 56 yesterday with fog and drizzle going on and off. Today: 54 early, falling in PM to 30 by AM tomorrow, cloudy, wind w. to n, picking up. 53*(99%RH) here at 6am, Fog <0.25mi. 54* at 9am and earlier. Fog lifted 10am. 55* at 11am. 56* at Noon. 57* at 12:30pm. 58* at 1pm. 60* at 2:30pm. 51* at 6pm. 44* at 8pm. 40* at 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You need to at least admit that your bashing of the gfs was wrong with this system….. Alot of people were wrong Euro busted hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: was that a wall to wall winter? Not sure if I'd call it that. I'd say 95-96 was the one closest to wall to wall. Like bluewave posted. 02-03 was a good one though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 49 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You need to at least admit that your bashing of the gfs was wrong with this system….. The GFS had a very rare good moment with this storm yes I will admit. However I still don’t think it’s correct with the very northern edge of the precip it shows as accumulating snow, look at the sounding, that’s virga, it’s not going to overcome that dry layer. But yea, all in all the GFS did well this time 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 49 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS had a very rare good moment with this storm yes I will admit. However I still don’t think it’s correct with the very northern edge of the precip it shows at accumulating snow, look at the sounding, that’s virga, it’s not going to overcome that dry layer. But yea, all in all the GFS did well this time Fine details like that will only be fined tuned as we get closer. But overall, it had the correct idea. Biggest issues is that people are going to expect it to be correct next time lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Fine details like that will only be fined tuned as we get closer. But overall, it had the correct idea. Biggest issues is that people are going to expect it to be correct next time lol Any model that we can trust ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Maybe this first Nino-like WWB and STJ enhanced storm track can be a preview of an El Niño for next winter? But then we’’ll need the WPAC to back off an let it couple. So we’ll see how things go. Brief SOI dip to negative 2 Jan 2022 1011.96 1007.80 -2.11 12.36 10.40 1 Jan 2022 1013.42 1008.00 3.82 12.84 10.62 31 Dec 2021 1014.44 1007.60 16.19 13.07 10.76 30 Dec 2021 1013.61 1006.95 15.26 12.88 10.73 29 Dec 2021 1010.94 1004.90 12.04 12.75 10.68 28 Dec 2021 1009.59 1000.95 25.53 12.29 10.74 27 Dec 2021 1009.20 1000.15 27.66 11.65 10.80 26 Dec 2021 1012.82 1000.10 46.71 11.43 10.90 25 Dec 2021 1015.80 1003.15 46.34 10.90 10.65 Nino-like WWB near Dateline 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am hoping this first Nino-like WWB and STJ enhanced storm track can be a preview of an actual fully coupled El Niño for next winter. Brief SOI dip to negative 2 Jan 2022 1011.96 1007.80 -2.11 12.36 10.40 1 Jan 2022 1013.42 1008.00 3.82 12.84 10.62 31 Dec 2021 1014.44 1007.60 16.19 13.07 10.76 30 Dec 2021 1013.61 1006.95 15.26 12.88 10.73 29 Dec 2021 1010.94 1004.90 12.04 12.75 10.68 28 Dec 2021 1009.59 1000.95 25.53 12.29 10.74 27 Dec 2021 1009.20 1000.15 27.66 11.65 10.80 26 Dec 2021 1012.82 1000.10 46.71 11.43 10.90 25 Dec 2021 1015.80 1003.15 46.34 10.90 10.65 Nino-like WWB near Dateline I'm enjoying following the sst evolution related to those wind anomalies currently. It's nice to see the Indonesian waters cooling off for a change. The persistent convection in that area probably played a roll in that as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I'm enjoying following the sst evolution related to those wind anomalies currently. It's nice to see the Indonesian waters cooling off for a change. The persistent convection in that area probably played a roll in that as well. It would be pretty wild if the record Aleutians block actually triggered an El Niño event. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: It would be pretty wild if the record Aleutians block actually triggered an El Niño event. Yeah, that's fascinating. Really interesting stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and unseasonably mild today. Temperatures will fall rapidly late in the day or at night. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 55° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 62° A developing storm will bring a moderate snowfall to parts of the Middle Atlantic region late tonight and tomorrow. There has been a pronounced increase in snowfall amounts to the north on the overnight EPS. The differences between the 1/1 12z and 1/2 0z runs include: New York: 0% 1”; 29% 1”; Philadelphia: 4% 2”; 57% 2”; Washington, DC: 6% 4”; 63% 4”. Initial snowfall estimates include: Atlantic City: 4”-8”; Baltimore: 3”-6”; Islip: 1”-2”; New York City: 0.5” or less; Newark: 1” or less; Norfolk: 1” or less; Philadelphia: 2”-4”; Richmond: 3”-6”; Salisbury: 4”-8”; Washington, DC: 3”-6”; and, Wilmington, DE: 3”-6” 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Quite a snow event just to our south. Areas not to far from us will possibly get double digit amounts. Some models even have our southern and coastal areas getting as much as 2-4 inches. Should be interesting to watch in such a non event winter so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Any model that we can trust ? I don’t mind waiting until the day before a storm for the models to settle on snowfall amounts. This seems to be common for us. But it’s more of a problem when the day before forecast is way off. The NAM was the model that got the January 2016 record snowfall event correct the day before while the Euro was too suppressed. January 2015 was a disappointment for most areas west of Suffolk based on forecasts the day before. So it doesn’t pay to get invested in snowfall amounts beyond a day or two. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Regarding the long-range pattern (Jan 9-15 or so), looks like a classic phase 8 MJO composite across N. America but closer to a phase 1 composite across Euro-Atlantic sector. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Hmmm... back to Central Jersey Coast jackpot zone this year? Tom's River to ACY look to be sitting pretty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Temperatures as low as about -50 degrees in Alaska. They have had a cold winter so far, although they have had some brief warm ups. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 hours ago, EasternLI said: 00z EPS mid month I hope the EPS is correct as the GEFS 6z was much warmer, less of a east coast trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I hope the EPS is correct as the GEFS 6z was much warmer, less of a east coast trough. Yeah, we just need to monitor it for now. I prefer being in that situation, though instead of the reverse. We'll see how 12z's handle things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Nothing for 1/7 per GFS followed by cutter at 162. No block = cut per GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Nothing for 1/7 per GFS followed by cutter at 162. No block = cut per GFS. Cmc is amped for next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 UKie in the sweet spot for Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Euro has the low right over Montauk at Hr 120. Decent hit for north and west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 60 degrees here right now. I just went for a run outside with a t-shirt on, and it's possible I could be shoveling snow tomorrow. A Colorado-like weather swing that's becoming much more common for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 60 degrees here right now. I just went for a run outside with a t-shirt on, and it's possible I could be shoveling snow tomorrow. A Colorado-like weather swing that's becoming much more common for our area. Yup imagine we grab a couple of inches tomorrow and a moderate snowfall next Friday. Most of the area would be above normal snowfall With a plus 5 departure for the 1st 5 and a 1/2 weeks of Winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 JFK broke their record high temp for the day with 59 degrees. Old record was 57. They could have a couple of inches of snow on the ground by this time tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Approaching 60 here. I hear so many different species of birds chirping which is unusual for this time of year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 so muggy today glad i am back home under a.c 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Maybe the higher than forecast temps are a sign of stronger ridging. Prob not but wishcasting is fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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