forkyfork Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 summer 96 had four 90 degree days at newark. that's also never happening again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Nice discussion. 1/6-1/7 definitely looks like an I-84 - north snow/wintry event. Unfortunately, we lost the -NAO blocking, also lost the -AO. Any shortwave that amps is going to want to be an inland runner/cutter. With the +NAO, there nothing to stop a SE ridge flex and force secondary redevelopment off the coast. The blocking left at a real bad time We can snow with an okay PNA. We don't need blocking to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 It wasn't wall to wall. There were several thaws. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Another gray 50 degree day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 ewr: nov -4.1 dec -6.3 jan -3.2 feb -1.5 march -3.8 five months in a row with negative departures with 4/5 -3 or lower. that's a pipe dream in the current climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 24 minutes ago, forkyfork said: wall to wall winter from november to april? never again. we've warmed too much In my lifetime, we never had wall to wall. Even 96 wasnt But yes, those days of getting close are gone. What is amazing to see are places in the Adirondacks like Lake Placid that used to be wall to wall no longer are. We went up there every christmas. Always snowy and cold. They havent has a good xmas week in years!! This change didnt happen gradually… it happen rapidly. All within 20 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, forkyfork said: ewr: nov -4.1 dec -6.3 jan -3.2 feb -1.5 march -3.8 five months in a row with negative departures with 4/5 -3 or lower. that's a pipe dream in the current climate CPK hit 56 on jan 9th, and 51 on the 18th. 56 was a daily record which I think still stands. So yeah, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, forkyfork said: ewr: nov -4.1 dec -6.3 jan -3.2 feb -1.5 march -3.8 five months in a row with negative departures with 4/5 -3 or lower. that's a pipe dream in the current climate It was as close to wall to wall as you can get around here in the modern era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The warm December aside, I honestly cannot remember the last time we have gone into the first week of January with less than an inch of snow. We got nothing in November and I only have 0.5 of snow total for December. In recent history, I think only 97-98 and 01-02 did this. Even 11-12 and 19-20 had much more snow by this time….. The winter of 1972-1973 holds the top spot for the least snowiest, with only 2.8 inches recorded in Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: CPK hit 56 on jan 9th, and 51 on the 18th. 56 was a daily record which I think still stands. So yeah, no. today and tomorrow are going to be in the 50s. it's just like january 1996! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: today and tomorrow are going to be in the 50s. it's just like january 1996! OK NOW you are trolling. That red tag is getting a brownish tinge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We can snow with an okay PNA. We don't need blocking to get snow. Agree... it's about timing. NOT a certain oscillation configuration. Preferred oscillations are valued as more lead time but even those fail, frequently. Thought this was worded I84 and particularly the Poconos and elsewhere just too far away in this overall pattern as described by others previously to this post. I do note quite bit of NO it won't happen, so that pattern recognized thinking-experience is considered. Think I want to wait it all out. Even 12z/1 GFS refuses to leave I95 dry, opting for a period of snow 4A-10A Monday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Gfs less amped for next weekends storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs less amped for next weekends storm GFS goes from a cutter at 0z to an inland runner at 6z to a DT special at 12z for the end of week potential event. These types of outputs reinforce the argument about how far out these OP runs should go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: summer 96 had four 90 degree days at newark. that's also never happening again There will probably be an ultra-plinian volcanic eruption in the next few hundred years that cools global temperatures for a year or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The GFS is almost certainly too far NW with the precip. shield for Monday. It has placed too much QPF into dry air a few times this winter season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 47 minutes ago, Rjay said: It was as close to wall to wall as you can get around here in the modern era. I remember plenty of rain that year. Wall to wall has never existed at our latitude in recorded history. Wall to wall warm is becoming increasingly possible, but there will continue to be intrusions of cold air following wound up storms regardless of CC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Newark nearly caught 95-96 in just 33 days during 10-11. So while wall to wall November to April cold and snow is unlikely in a warmer climate, a shorter period of intense snowfall could eventually rival 95-96. Philly beat 95-96 in a much shorter period in 09-10. Same for Boston beating 95-96 in 2015. Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 61.5 2011-01-27 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 1996-04-30 78.4 0 2 1961-04-30 73.5 0 3 2011-04-30 68.2 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, eduggs said: I remember plenty of rain that year. Wall to wall has never existed at our latitude in recorded history. Wall to wall warm is becoming increasingly possible, but there will continue to be intrusions of cold air following wound up storms regardless of CC. Of course it's going to rain but we had below normal temps every month and over 15 snow events iirc. It's as close as we can get around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, Tatamy said: GFS goes from a cutter at 0z to an inland runner at 6z to a DT special at 12z for the end of week potential event. These types of outputs reinforce the argument about how far out these OP runs should go. It's insane to run the GFS out to 384 hours. I don't trust any operational beyond 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 It's only 45 degrees warmer than it was at this time 4 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Virginia is really about to see more snow than all of the northeast lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 So, without the 12z/1 EC op in hand... I agree with the very recent post about GFS repeatedly too much snow into drying air nw fringe. IF the GFS is correct, it will have scalded the GGEM/EC, with only the ensembles prevailing for the minority of amounts (less than 1" in our area) and virtually always a dusting in the ensembles due to climo in our area in winter. So the WPC morning ensembles are out (14-16z ish) and they have slightly lowered the threat of 1" in NYC Monday, and decidedly lowered the chance of 3" just n of I84 Thu night-Fri. I did not add these graphics but if you do not trust, please go to the WPC Winter Weather page and check. Always uncertainty but for now, I take my chances on Friday morning being more productive in our area than Monday morning for one reason: Barring a 12z/1 EC northward shift, all the other primary modeling has a null event NYC Monday. Friday is still 6 days out and we know there are going to be changes in the modeling since confident lead-time in this pattern around here seems to be less than 84 hours. Examples below from the 06z/1 GEFS. Note the confluence zone is to our south for Monday morning. But Friday morning: note the confluence zone is in se Canada. The Friday event could still run inside and be mainly rain... but at least my confidence in an event is much higher than what is indicated to me by the 06z/1 500MB pattern for early Monday. Am not 100% null on Monday but still not excited til l i see the GGEM and EC come north. For now, continue Trace flurries at worst NYC Monday morning through the 16z/1 modeling guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Forgot to add but most importantly-thank you for your AFD complements. Those days are long gone. Ensembles-improved modeling have changed the game. Not being an MJO specialist leaves me kind of behind on the flow interactions. I just pattern recognize. I still think LR is very-very difficult to be constantly reliably accurate, especially timing the embedded 2-3 week periods of extreme weather. Since my understanding is that the NAM goes away sometime in 2023--- am unsure what replaces but I'd like to see the SPC HREF extended to 84 hours. However, am not sure if that will be useful. I always like the NAEFS 8-14 days and it might not hurt to start looking at NAEFS 15-21 Day. Again, there may not be any predictability? And here is the 12z/1 EC at 54 hours. Slightly further north... but still south of us. No thread for me as yet for Sunday night-Monday morning. Thanks to the ECMWF and Weather.US for this graphic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Euro starts Friday storm as frozen here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 12z euro for Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Mecs on 12Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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