forkyfork Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Unfortunately, I was too young to really embrace that year for what it was. I just remember it snowing every weekend that year. Hopefully, one year in the near future we repeat that pattern. we're probably never getting it again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 we're probably never getting it again. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 ‘98/‘02 me. I was too young to know what was going on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: Dateline forcing in 02-03. Hence the love affair with Modoki El Niño’s. Fortuitous little warm pool sitting right there that year. +PDO too. The Nino only works if the W PAC cools down. That seems like the issue with the 18-19 winter that could never act like a Nino because it kept the huge warm anomaly near Australia. This Nina is really acting up because of that warm pool. We might really need a mod to strong Nino to get it to couple if this warm Australia water is a semi permanent feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 19 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The Nino only works if the W PAC cools down. That seems like the issue with the 18-19 winter that could never act like a Nino because it kept the huge warm anomaly near Australia. This Nina is really acting up because of that warm pool. We might really need a mod to strong Nino to get it to couple if this warm Australia water is a semi permanent feature. Yes. One way or another. We need to see some sst gradients otherwise it's useless. I imagine other factors would just take over. Like a enso neutral. Not really much of a gradient in 18-19, just warm all over. Hopefully it's not a totally permanent feature yet, but the outlook isn't great. I'd like to give a moderate one a shot. We haven't done that in a while. But I think a strong one is coming sooner rather than later. This mjo has been downwelling that record warm water during this time. I'm curious to see what happens with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Classic forky post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Probably the greatest long range AFDs in NWS history. This! And he's still at it right here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 7 hours ago, Allsnow said: What I meant is that I don’t think this is a year like 11/12 or 19/20 when it’s a complete shut out. I feel we will finish below avg snowfall wise but still get a favorable 2-3 week period If the eps long range forecast is correct I’m optimistic that we make up for lost time fast and end up well above average snow. I was starting to get nervous about this winter a couple weeks ago once the trough out west kept deepening and refused to go away. I hate seeing a trough out west, that’s never good for us even if there is North Atlantic blocking. However, now that there are signs of the trough out west not only going away but being replaced by a massive ridge, I believe this January will be epic. February usually warms up in la ninas but this one is more east based, and Ray from the New England forum has mentioned how east based ninas tend to be more backloaded than central based ones. Hopefully that bodes well for Feb and March, but we will need to see how the polar vortex looks. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy New Year, everyone! May we all get buried in 20" of snow next Friday! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 December ended at 43.8[+4.7] nowadays, but +7.9 from my 1960's Almanacs for NYC. The first 8 days of January are averaging 39degs.[35/44],or +5(+3 nowadays) HNY2022---you can start your summer planning today. First run of the year: 51*(99%RH) here at 6am(Fog<0.25mi.) 52* at 9am, fog lifting, but drizzle continues. 55* at Noon. A few hundred people showed up for the Polar Bear Dip. 56* at 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy New Year everyone. After a mild start to the year, the Euro is bringing a very intense polar vortex to SE Canada. This is due to the very strong -EPO and +PNA around day 10. So it will be interesting to track the progress of this Arctic outbreak as we get closer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy New Year to every member that posts here! Am not threading anything yet for Jan 2-3, Jan 6-7 The reasons are in the graphics below. The uncertainties are largest in the gradients. If interested, click each for greater clarity. The 06z/1 raw 10 to 1 snow ratio'd operational EC and GDPS (Canadian). Both are nada and as is the NAM (not attached). My guess is a few ensemble members of the EPS/GEFS have a touch of snow in our forum but overwhelmingly it's unlikely. Saw the 06z GFS northern fringe but my guess on that is that not enough dry air is infused to dry out the northern fringe to virga. So, until the Canadian and NAM move north, I just cant get excited. Jan 6-7 is of more interest to me, at least I95 itself northwestward. Anything can happen at this point but it does look like a sizable wintery qpf event is coming to the northeast. How close it gets to NYC... unknown but I've alerted my I84 friends to monitor future forecasts for travel Friday morning. Click the graphics if interested for greater clarity. 06z/1 EC OP, 06z /1 GGEM=GDPS OP, NWS 09z/1 Ensemble prob of 1"---all these focused on Sunday night-Monday morning, and then the late Thu-Fri ensemble chance of 3" of snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Happy new year fellow weather enthusiasts. The 00z EPS agrees with bluewave's assessment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Happy New Year everyone. After a mild start to the year, the Euro is bringing a very intense polar vortex to SE Canada. This is due to the very strong -EPO and +PNA around day 10. So it will be interesting to track the progress of this Arctic outbreak as we get closer. If you want snowstorms hope that’s wrong. With a TPV in that position you are going to be very cold and dry. There is going to be screaming fast flow around it, any shortwaves are going to get put through the meat grinder and sheared, suppressed to bits…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If you want snowstorms hope that’s wrong. With a TPV in that position you are going to be very cold and dry. There is going to be screaming fast flow around it, any shortwaves are going to get put through the meat grinder and sheared, suppressed to bits…. Give me the cold and I’ll take my chances. It’ll find a way to snow be it a clipper, mauler, Archimbault as the trough lifts out whatever. But without the cold you have no chance and rarely is there a period in the MidAtlantic where it doesn’t snow because it’s too cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 12 hours ago, forkyfork said: we're probably never getting it again Aww, thanx for the input Mr Happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 6 hours ago, TriPol said: Happy New Year, everyone! May we all get buried in 20" of snow next Friday! This just about sums it up for the next 10 days the clunker winter in NYC of 21 - 22 continues......until further notice 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Happy New Year to every member that posts here! Am not threading anything yet for Jan 2-3, Jan 6-7 The reasons are in the graphics below. The uncertainties are largest in the gradients. If interested, click each for greater clarity. The 06z/1 raw 10 to 1 snow ratio'd operational EC and GDPS (Canadian). Both are nada and as is the NAM (not attached). My guess is a few ensemble members of the EPS/GEFS have a touch of snow in our forum but overwhelmingly it's unlikely. Saw the 06z GFS northern fringe but my guess on that is that not enough dry air is infused to dry out the northern fringe to virga. So, until the Canadian and NAM move north, I just cant get excited. Jan 6-7 is of more interest to me, at least I95 itself northwestward. Anything can happen at this point but it does look like a sizable wintery qpf event is coming to the northeast. How close it gets to NYC... unknown but I've alerted my I84 friends to monitor future forecasts for travel Friday morning. Click the graphics if interested for greater clarity. 06z/1 EC OP, 06z /1 GGEM=GDPS OP, NWS 09z/1 Ensemble prob of 1"---all these focused on Sunday night-Monday morning, and then the late Thu-Fri ensemble chance of 3" of snow. Nice discussion. 1/6-1/7 definitely looks like an I-84 - north snow/wintry event. Unfortunately, we lost the -NAO blocking, also lost the -AO. Any shortwave that amps is going to want to be an inland runner/cutter. With the +NAO, there nothing to stop a SE ridge flex and force secondary redevelopment off the coast. The blocking left at a real bad time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 safe to say new year, same shit? Man hopefully something changes soon. Happy New year’s fellow weens! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Morning thoughts... Today will be cloudy, rainy, and mild. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and even upper 50s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 54° Newark: 57° Philadelphia: 59° Tomorrow will start mild, but temperatures will fall sharply late in the day. 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 48.4° Average temperature: 48.3° Average error: 1.1° Newark: Average daily forecast: 51.2° Average temperature: 50.4° Average error: 1.6° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 52.5° Average temperature: 52.0° Average error: 1.6° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 44 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Give me the cold and I’ll take my chances. It’ll find a way to snow be it a clipper, mauler, Archimbault as the trough lifts out whatever. But without the cold you have no chance and rarely is there a period in the MidAtlantic where it doesn’t snow because it’s too cold. Exactly. That is definitely a cold dry look, but as you said when it lifts out we will get overrunning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 In the Northeast, both Newark and Boston saw their warmest year on record in 2021. Boston: 54.6 (old record: 54.2, 2012) Newark: 58.1 (old record: 57.9, 2012) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Currently 48 here, I was reading on another board that this month might be our best shot for snow. We shall see. Thus far a trace of snow here in HPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 29 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Currently 48 here, I was reading on another board that this month might be our best shot for snow. We shall see. Thus far a trace of snow here in HPN. The warm December aside, I honestly cannot remember the last time we have gone into the first week of January with less than an inch of snow. We got nothing in November and I only have 0.5 of snow total for December. In recent history, I think only 97-98 and 01-02 did this. Even 11-12 and 19-20 had much more snow by this time….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 See the problem? This is always 10 days out We had a winter like this several years ago 10 days out is fantasy land Anything in a reliable time frame shows the same pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 13 hours ago, forkyfork said: we're probably never getting it again Of course not. And that was the thinking before it happened and even right after. It was an anomalous winter and an all time record for NYC. Should not expect 75 inches. Yet other stations in the east have broken their all time records since 1996. DC broke the 1996 record in 2010 for example. Probably never, yes. Never? Probably no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: Of course not. And that was the thinking before it happened and even right after. It was an anomalous winter and an all time record for NYC. Should not expect 75 inches. Yet other stations in the east have broken their all time records since 1996. DC broke the 1996 record in 2010 for example. Probably never, yes. Never? Probably no. Never say never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 wall to wall winter from november to april? never again. we've warmed too much 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 you'll have better luck rooting for 80 in february 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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