January 2022

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't get my hopes up.

It's not like it's fantasy 

[wdrag]

I cannot confidently start a snow thread on Jan 2-3 in our area, because of poor ensemble (EPS about zero) amounts in the I95 slot DCA-BOS, as well as no CMC operational support. Here is the 04z/30 WPC ensemble chance of ~ 3" of snow - also very-very low probs for D4.  So for now, til CMC,EC,GFS sort of agree on an inch somewhere in our area, I will refrain and encourage further discussion of the risk in this current thread.

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wouldn't get my hopes up.

Gfs is a terrible model

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is a terrible model

The Grand Fantasy System (GFS) Model has skill scores that are so pathetically low, it ought to be classified as nothing more than wishcasting

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The Grand Fantasy System (GFS) Model has skill scores that are so pathetically low, it ought to be classified as nothing more than wishcasting

At 108 hours out, you would think the model would be right .

Terrible

 

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

The convection on the 12 EPS 360 forecast is strung out across the phase 6 and 7 regions. 
 

12z 360 hr EPS forecast

 

 

 

It’s the Niña standing wave…..there are no doubts, a classic canonical La Niña system is firmly in place and has been for months now: 

 

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s the Niña standing wave…..there are no doubts, a classic canonical La Niña system is firmly in place and has been for months now: 

This is more than the typical La Niña standing wave. The cat 4 marine heatwave in the area is enhancing the convection near Australia and New Zealand. So it’s no surprise that the models have been trying to decrease the convection in those areas too quickly.

 

 

 

[EasternLI]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is more than the typical La Niña standing wave. The cat 4 marine heatwave in the area is enhancing the convection near Australia and New Zealand. So it’s no surprise that the models have been trying to decrease the convection in those areas too quickly.

 

 

 

Yeah, step back on the EPS last night in regards to hope for any improvement in this area IMO. Not sure it's going to change much at this point. It's the warmest water on the planet, which matters. It's also playing right into the la Niña base state. It's been a concern all along like we've been discussing. I'm not going to sugar coat it. Toss whatever the RMM plots are showing. This is running the show, attempts at altering that have been futile. We'll keep monitoring but that's the way it looks honestly. 

[EastonSN+]

37 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, step back on the EPS last night in regards to hope for any improvement in this area IMO. Not sure it's going to change much at this point. It's the warmest water on the planet, which matters. It's also playing right into the la Niña base state. It's been a concern all along like we've been discussing. I'm not going to sugar coat it. Toss whatever the RMM plots are showing. This is running the show, attempts at altering that have been futile. We'll keep monitoring but that's the way it looks honestly. 

I REALLY hope the Euro is correct with the snowstorm as this window of opportunity is extremely tight. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is more than the typical La Niña standing wave. The cat 4 marine heatwave in the area is enhancing the convection near Australia and New Zealand. So it’s no surprise that the models have been trying to decrease the convection in those areas too quickly.

 

 

 

The increasing frequency of significant marine heatwaves is a fairly recent development that renders a lot of past analogs—for those who use them—largely irrelevant. If one recalls, there had been some social media chatter early this month that December 2021 could be compared to December 1995. But some of the major regional SSTAs were wildly different and the PDO was severely negative this time around. Not coincidentally, the 1995 idea did not have merit.

[Allsnow]

Not a ideal run on the eps last night. Let’s hope that’s wrong and the American guidance is correct 

[NEG NAO]

I would be careful totally discounting  early next weeks potential . Take a look back in this forum to the Dec 26, 2010 Boxing Day threads. Just 3 days before the event there was a post that the Euro was a complete miss to the east and other models were forecasting a quarter inch or less of liquid......We all remember what actually happened.............

[Allsnow]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

I would be careful totally discounting  early next weeks potential . Take a look back in this forum to the Dec 26 Boxing Day threads. Just 3 days before the event there was a post that the Euro was a complete miss to the east and other models were forecasting a quarter inch or less of liquid......We all remember what actually happened.............

At 500mb it’s a poor comparison 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The increasing frequency of significant marine heatwaves is a fairly recent development that renders a lot of past analogs—for those who use them—largely irrelevant. If one recalls, there had been some social media chatter early this month that December 2021 could be compared to December 1995. But some of the major regional SSTAs were wildly different and the PDO was severely negative this time around. Not coincidentally, the 1995 idea did not have merit.

I agree. These marine heatwaves have been interfering with the typical ENSO responses during recent winters. A marine heatwave in the WPAC didn’t allow the El Niño to couple in 18-19.  The next year we had the record warm SSTs associated with the record fall IOD. Studies found that this may have contributed to the supercharged polar vortex in the 19-20 winter. Last winter the record off equator SST warmth for a La Niña prevented the expected La Niña response. So using past analogs for winter forecasts hasn’t been working out in this new marine heatwave regime.

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, step back on the EPS last night in regards to hope for any improvement in this area IMO. Not sure it's going to change much at this point. It's the warmest water on the planet, which matters. It's also playing right into the la Niña base state. It's been a concern all along like we've been discussing. I'm not going to sugar coat it. Toss whatever the RMM plots are showing. This is running the show, attempts at altering that have been futile. We'll keep monitoring but that's the way it looks honestly. 

Can we take about 1000 B-52 bombers and dump blocks of ice on it?  Only somewhat kidding. 

Crazy how this anomaly is ruining our winter up here. 

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Can we take about 1000 B-52 bombers and dump blocks of ice on it?  Only somewhat kidding. 

Crazy how this anomaly is ruining our winter up here. 

It's certainly concerning. Studies suggest it may very well get worse in that area in the future. It seems to have allowed stronger coupling to the La Niña then there otherwise should have been. When you take into account the ONI really isn't overly impressive. MEI being more robust early on may have been a clue here. 

[MJO812]

Gefs closer for Monday 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Can we take about 1000 B-52 bombers and dump blocks of ice on it?  Only somewhat kidding. 

Crazy how this anomaly is ruining our winter up here. 

I love geoengineering and I hate the Pacific Ocean, move half of that useless ocean to Mars for settlement and use the resulting freed up land surface area for an expanding human population.  Moving water off the planet would also fix the sea level rise problem.

I'd also take out the Gulf of Mexico enough of the humid nonsense that causes.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

I agree. These marine heatwaves have been interfering with the typical ENSO responses during recent winters. A marine heatwave in the WPAC didn’t allow the El Niño to couple in 18-19.  The next year we had the record warm SSTs associated with the record fall IOD. Studies found that this may have contributed to the supercharged polar vortex in the 19-20 winter. Last winter the record off equator SST warmth for a La Niña prevented the expected La Niña response. So using past analogs for winter forecasts hasn’t been working out in this new marine heatwave regime.

we need geoengineering in the worst way, enough of this standing by and being mere observers and if we need to spend trillions of dollars on geoengineering the planet so be it.

 

[EasternLI]

+PNA +NAO +EPO sets up on the 12z EPS. That would probably get colder here. With the vortex near the NAO domain. Let's see if we can get 2 runs in a row lol.

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

+PNA +NAO +EPO sets up on the 12z EPS. That would probably get colder here. With the vortex near the NAO domain. Let's see if we can get 2 runs in a row lol.

Actually looks a little bit like that phase 6 composite @bluewave

[Allsnow]

20 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

+PNA +NAO +EPO sets up on the 12z EPS. That would probably get colder here. With the vortex near the NAO domain. Let's see if we can get 2 runs in a row lol.

Definitely a improvement from last night. The GEFS and geps are 2014 lol

[EasternLI]

That EPS run was back on board with getting the MJO moving again. Decent run this time. 

[EasternLI]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Definitely a improvement from last night. The GEFS and geps are 2014 lol

Yeah, that's much better than last night. 

[SnoSki14]

Basically back and forth pattern. Warm 1-2 days with rain, cold shot for a day or two then more warmth/rain and rinse/repeat. 

Looks like crap if you're looking for snow.

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

+PNA +NAO +EPO sets up on the 12z EPS. That would probably get colder here. With the vortex near the NAO domain. Let's see if we can get 2 runs in a row lol.

Also +AO. Any +PNA is going to be very transient and not last, there is no support whatsoever sustainable +PNA….there may be a short window for something come mid next month 

[EasternLI]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Also +AO. Any +PNA is going to be very transient and not last, there is no support whatsoever sustainable +PNA….there may be a short window for something come mid next month 

Well, just saying what it showed. More neutral AO. +NAO look to me. Let's see a couple of more runs anyway. It did make a move with the MJO this time too. 

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Actually looks a little bit like that phase 6 composite @bluewave

You can see the models continuing to struggle with the forcing. The GEPS was more in phase 6 and a flatter +PNA. While the GEFS has phase 7 and stronger +PNA ridge. Just goes to show how a  few degrees difference of forcing location can have such a big effect on the pattern. 
 

 

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Well, just saying what it showed. More neutral AO. +NAO look to me. Let's see a couple of more runs anyway. It did make a move with the MJO this time too. 

Agreed. The window for “wintry” here IMO is mid-January. As far as the pipe dream that the MJO is going into phase 8….we’ve been hearing that the MJO is going to phase 8 since Halloween now, it’s time for certain people to give that wishcast up, just like the SSW that we’ve been hearing is coming since November and the very weak SPV for Dec, Jan……

[EasternLI]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see the models continuing to struggle with the forcing. The GEPS was more in phase 6 and a flatter +PNA. While the GEFS has phase 7 and stronger +PNA ridge. Just goes to show how a  few degrees difference of forcing location can have such a big effect on the pattern. 
 

Yeah, this run with the EPS was better with moving the MJO again. It get wishy-washy sometimes so need a few more runs. But it was nice to see anyway.