sussexcountyobs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: I have family up in Sussex. The difference in the winter weather between there and where I am on LI is like night and day, which we all know. In the 80s as a kid, I experienced one or two gut punches per season as they got socked up there with snow while we got rain. We got a little revenge with some of grazers of the last decade, but the score is about 100-2 in your favor. I've got no frozen lakes, and no snowcover - just a few measly parking lot snowpiles, and that's about it. Ah, it all pays off in early to mid April, though, when you'll occasionally get up to 72 under bright blue skies, while I'm backdoored with 49, low clouds, fog and drizzle. I understand. Not to add insult to injury by any means. But it has begun snowing lightly here about 15 minutes ago. 28° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 43 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: I gauge winter on cold. How deep ice is on lake for ice fishing and hockey. It's been cold here. My 20 something year old son is out on lake playing hockey. Ice is around a foot thick. Theres a a good 4-5" of snow on the ground. Still ice in the driveway I can't get rid of. There has been at least some snow on the ground since early January. Finally someone that grades winter Nov 25 - April 10, like I do. Temperatures have to at least average normal to below, there has to be a minimum of 45 days of snow cover, preferably 60+, and of course there has to be ice on the river and ponds must be frozen solid. I also throw in a white Christmas and solid December but the last several years those two have not been clicking most years. If i get all of that I'm even okay with somewhat below normal snowfall (about 50 inches per season where i am in Orange County). It's a large forum area wise and I know people in the city and south and east have a totally different criteria. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Finally someone that grades winter Nov 25 - April 10, like I do. Temperatures have to at least average normal to below, there has to be a minimum of 45 days of snow cover, preferably 60+, and of course there has to be ice on the river and ponds must be frozen solid. I also throw in a white Christmas and solid December but the last several years those two have not been clicking most years. If i get all of that I'm even okay with somewhat below normal snowfall (about 50 inches per season where i am in Orange County). It's a large forum area wise and I know people in the city and south and east have a totally different criteria. As a NYC dweller I'd say winter is Dec 15 - March 15. Like you mentioned, two different regions of a broader area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 43 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: I understand. Not to add insult to injury by any means. But it has begun snowing lightly here about 15 minutes ago. 28° Well done sco . “Insult to injury” an appropriate description of the East Coast January storm tracks. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Light snow falling. Very fine flakes. 27. Vehicles, driveway, walk and steps getting white. In street 90% wet, some whitening in spots because there has been so much salt put down over the last couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Best light snow of the afternoon falling. Street even starting to get white. 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Best light snow of the afternoon falling. Street even starting to get white. 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Honestly I miss Aprils that used have a 90 degree day or two, don’t think it’s happened in 10 years though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Think im ready for a pattern change since this so called great pattern is yielding nothing if next weeks storm is a miss. Cold and dry is frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The 18z GFS has literally no measurable precipitation for 2 weeks until it rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 18z GFS has literally no measurable precipitation for 2 weeks until it rains. Snowing here . Eyeballing it, approaching 1/2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said: Snowing here . Eyeballing it, approaching 1/2". I'm sure the hills will get at least a few hundredths of QPF. I meant no measurable on the GFS for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: I'm sure the hills will get at least a few hundredths of QPF. I meant no measurable on the GFS for the coastal plain. Its measurable. I have to throw on my robe to measure it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 29 and snow shower here, no accums yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, dave0176 said: Honestly I miss Aprils that used have a 90 degree day or two, don’t think it’s happened in 10 years though. Long live 2002 and 2010! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 A generally cold but dry week lies ahead. A strong cold shot is likely around midweek. Parts of the Northeast have the potential to experience their coldest temperatures of the winter. Afterward, the cold will likely begin ease. A pattern change toward persistent milder conditions could begin to evolve during the first week of February. The extended range of the EPS already shows the start of a warming trend in the closing days of January, so the timing remains somewhat uncertain. Such large-scale pattern changes have sometimes been preceded by or coincided with storms. The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 27th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative, especially in such cities as Washington and Philadelphia. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +11.17 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.406. On January 21 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.734 (RMM). The January 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.664 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.4° (3.3° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 hours ago, dave0176 said: Honestly I miss Aprils that used have a 90 degree day or two, don’t think it’s happened in 10 years though. I remember doing striped bass fishing on the Hudson April 2010. Very hot one day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 for what it's worth, we augered 12" ice thickness on Culvers Lake in Sussex County Nj to ice fish. At least we still can do that for another week to 10 days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 flurries here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: A generally cold but dry week lies ahead. A strong cold shot is likely around midweek. Parts of the Northeast have the potential to experience their coldest temperatures of the winter. Afterward, the cold will likely begin ease. A pattern change toward persistent milder conditions could begin to evolve during the first week of February. The extended range of the EPS already shows the start of a warming trend in the closing days of January, so the timing remains somewhat uncertain. Such large-scale pattern changes have sometimes been preceded by or coincided with storms. The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 27th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative, especially in such cities as Washington and Philadelphia. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +11.17 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.406. On January 21 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.734 (RMM). The January 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.664 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.4° (3.3° below normal). should be 100% implied probability nyc will be below normal for the month.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 hours ago, eduggs said: The 18z GFS has literally no measurable precipitation for 2 weeks until it rains. I'm still tracking next weekend's ocean storm which I do still believe is a threat to come up the east coast. I'm not saying it will but that it might. Back to your 18Z GFS. I liked it because it was slower than 12Z. If we can slow the speed of movement down, the trough might have a chance to deepen and go negative pulling this up the coast. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Currently 28* here after a high of 34 today. Light snow falling, grassy surfaces are now covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 23 minutes ago, nycwinter said: should be 100% implied probability nyc will be below normal for the month.. It’s pretty much there, except statistically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Light snow here starting to stick to most surfaces. 31.6 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 For the weekend, all the models at least getting closer with a snow-blitz. CMC almost perfect track. UKMET came much closer just a hair east of ideal, GFS came closer but has a ways to go. Still watching this here it seems many have given up on it prematurely. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and cool today. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 33° Newark: 34° Philadelphia: 36° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.2°; 15-Year: 39.7° Newark: 30-Year: 39.7°; 15-Year: 40.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.0°; 15-Year: 41.5° Tomorrow will be briefly milder before another very cold air mass overspreads the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The last 8 days of January are averaging 26degs.(21/31) or -7. Month to date is 31.7[-2.1]. January should end at 30.5[-3.2]. Reached 38 here yesterday. Today: T's pretty steady in mid 30's. Wind n. to s. late, m. cloudy. CMC {0Z}has the end of month storm today. {06Z}GFS looks similar. The football is still loose on the field. 31*(80%RH) here at 6am. 30* at 6:30am. 29* at 8am. 35* at Noon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 25* here this AM. Dusting over nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 6z gefs doesn't even look like a pattern change moving forward. Euro MJO is now stuck in the COD. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Flurries here now, dusting of new snow from overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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