HVSnowLover Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 4:16 PM, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: I know its been a horrible winter but this place is dead with a strong storm signal at the end of the month Expand We've had strong storm signals two weekends in a row and both failed so I don't think people are going to be too excited until multiple models agree on a storm hitting us within 96 hours. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 4:18 PM, HVSnowLover said: Gonna be OTS this run but at this point all that matters is strong storm signal still there. Would be wild and also painful if NC/Virgina coast get another snowstorm. Expand has been the theme this winter. I think OTS is a possible outcome compared to a cutter. lets see what the ensembles say 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 4:22 PM, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: has been the theme this winter. I think OTS is a possible outcome compared to a cutter Expand I agree although its not even that cold next weekend so climo would argue this could come further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 4:23 PM, HVSnowLover said: I agree although its not even that cold next weekend so climo would argue this could come further north. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 4:16 PM, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: I know its been a horrible winter but this place is dead with a strong storm signal at the end of the month Expand Too many red flags and a hostile wave interference "pattern." People will tune back in next week if the threat remains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 CMC develops it late for our area. I do have fairly high confidence a significant storm will happen somewhere along the east coast next weekend (just as it has the past two weekends). Just don't know where yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 4:59 PM, HVSnowLover said: CMC develops it late for our area. I do have fairly high confidence a significant storm will happen somewhere along the east coast next weekend (just as it has the past two weekends). Just don't know where yet. Expand Gefs is a good look at this range 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 4:09 PM, EastonSN+ said: Thanks for this! It seems that Feb will be a battle between shorter wavelengths, negative EPO and RNA ++AO NAO. Probably warmer to much warmer than average with more snow opportunities than Dec since we will not have the Negative NAO causing the meat grinder (trailing wave). Just a hunch that March with be back to a + PNA similar to now with no blocking giving the 30 day pattern window we are in. Expand The lack of solid Atlantic blocking has been a big issue so far for us this winter. While we were able to score the 6-10 snow with the early January PNA rise and tail end of the brief late December -AO, the Pacific flow has been too overpowering since then. The fast northern stream combined with +AO and been suppressing the southern stream. A solid Greenland block would have forced the stronger northern stream to buckle underneath getting us closer to the most active storm track. It’s always more of a challenge to rely exclusively on a North Pacific block without help from the Greenland -AO block. Hopefully, we can put together a nice snow event near the end of January and start of February just on the lingering +PNA and -EPO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 The 12z runs highlight the problems of fast flow. Unless we have a very strong PNA ridge it'll be a struggle to get a phase going so I'm not very optimistic right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 4:21 PM, HVSnowLover said: We've had strong storm signals two weekends in a row and both failed so I don't think people are going to be too excited until multiple models agree on a storm hitting us within 96 hours. Expand Yes, sit we have been burnt and are now rightfully so gun-shy . A week away ? The models can not even latch onto things a day before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 tools to hunt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 5:00 PM, MJO812 said: Gefs is a good look at this range Expand you have been saying this storm after storm since November - look at other guidance and you will see how unfavorable the pattern really is - fast flow - no phasing - suppression all combined.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 4:39 PM, eduggs said: Too many red flags and a hostile wave interference "pattern." People will tune back in next week if the threat remains. Expand Yep, this year at this range I couldn’t care less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 3:26 PM, bluewave said: Simon Lee has a great tweet illustrating the differences so far between this year and last. Expand Yea, nothing supports a SSWE right now. We are literally a 180 degree opposite of last winter when we had that major SSW occur. The SPV looks like it will be extremely strong and coupled come early - mid February. And the models are actually getting more aggressive with the -PNA and +AO/+NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 5:43 PM, snowman19 said: Yea, nothing supports a SSWE right now. We are literally a 180 degree opposite of last winter when we had that major SSW occur. The SPV looks like it will be extremely strong and coupled come early - mid February. And the models are actually getting more aggressive with the -PNA and +AO/+NAO Expand Yup PNA on a 30 day flip pattern. Therefore no reason to think we don't flip back to positive PNA March 1st. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 5:19 PM, NEG NAO said: you have been saying this storm after storm since November - look at other guidance and you will see how unfavorable the pattern really is - fast flow - no phasing - suppression all combined.... Expand I'm just stating what the gefs show. I haven't said anything so don't put words in my mouth. I'm tracking this along with others. You don't have to track it if you don't want to. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Watch us get a bowling ball right in the middle of an epic warm stretch in mid/late Feb. Bad luck in good pattern good luck in bad pattern (yeah yeah I know I know multiple waves interference spacing fast flow on and on w/r/t this month). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Its funny seeing ORF covered in snow and not us. Whole interior of SE really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 euro wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 The progressive pattern is killing us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 5:53 PM, EastonSN+ said: Yup PNA on a 30 day flip pattern. Therefore no reason to think we don't flip back to positive PNA March 1st. Expand Please. The PNA doesnt know the Gregorian Calendar. Some of these posts are getting ridiculous Too many posters writing off the entire month of February on 1/20 like its Gospel. Meanwhile, going all in for 2-4 last week with a frontal passage when it was 48F outside. Let’s all breathe a bit. Soon, we can talk about Sun Angel!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 6:40 PM, the_other_guy said: Please. The PNA doesnt know the Gregorian Calendar. Some of these posts are getting ridiculous Too many posters writing off the entire month of February on 1/20 like its Gospel. Meanwhile, going all in for 2-4 last week with a frontal passage when it was 48F outside. Let’s all breathe a bit. Soon, we can talk about Sun Angel!! Expand Learn how to spell before you criticize others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 17z/22 WPC D7... no 30% and the 12z ops also say, not likely right now for next weekend so not threading. Actually happy no 12z op has gone ballistic. Gives a chance of working nwwd. Have not viewed 12z/ensembles but will try and review everything tomorrow morning. I like the idea of only once/day close looks at D4+..allows the vaccinations to smooth out a bit. Hoping tomorrow mornings models hold onto a bit of snow late Sun or late Mon. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Euro is east, but better at H5 than 00z was. This is closer to a really good solution than 00z. I actually prefer this look at this time because it leaves a little room incase it comes in more amplified in the future. Which we see often. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 6:42 PM, EastonSN+ said: Learn how to spell before you criticize others. Expand ANGLE!!! Happy? See you 3/1/22 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 6:47 PM, EasternLI said: Euro is east, but better at H5 than 00z was. This is closer to a really good solution than 00z. I actually prefer this look at this time because it leaves a little room incase it comes in more amplified in the future. Which we see often. Expand The lack of high latitude blocking is going to make this hard to pull off. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 because you may not want to track....but you check in to look!!!! simple - refined - if you are not having fun in life....you may be doing it wrong!!!! dm 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Nice hit at the end of the run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 6:54 PM, Rjay said: The lack of high latitude blocking is going to make this hard to pull off. Expand Well yeah, never claimed it would be easy. Personally, I feel like there's absolutely no situation where these things are easy. Even in a perfect setup. There's always something to worry about. It's either no blocking, or a kicker, or something else. Is it a needle threader, sure I guess. But I hate that term because I think they all are anyway. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 7:12 PM, EasternLI said: Well yeah, never claimed it would be easy. Personally, I feel like there's absolutely no situation where these things are easy. Even in a perfect setup. There's always something to worry about. It's either no blocking, or a kicker, or something else. Is it a needle threader, sure I guess. But I hate that term because I think they all are anyway. Expand Exactly, nobody realistically thinks the odds are in favor of a major storm hitting that's shown on the models 7+ days in advance, but if it's there it's worth having on the radar and discussing a bit. This is a winter weather thread after all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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