January 2022

[Albedoman]

4 hours ago, USCG RS said:

Wrote this elsewhere as well

We need to stop focusing on the verbatim outcome at 7 days out. 

1) GFS and EPS are East of the Euro Op

2) Pattern Recognition. Just like the writing was on the wall for the first storm which torched the coast and today's storm which became suppressed to SC/NC/VA, the pattern for this wave is more likely to support a coastal over inland. You have an advertised pattern flip, yes, but in early Feb, not late Jan. Not to mention, pattern flips are notoriously delayed, not normally the other way around. I actually spoke to this weeks ago, patterns are rather hard to change once engrained. They flip, yes, however.... seasonal variability tends to help a lot more with that. 

That being said, the pattern would not support a storm torching into Canada, even if it exploded. You have a very cold and dense airmass preceding this storm with reinforcing shots. I know the Euro wants to just move the HP out of the way, however, this is not how physics works. With the storm a couple of weeks back, you had a stale airmass with nothing to reinforce behind it. With this, you have a negative AO and continual reinforcements of cold air. To think that this can just cut into that is just not taking into account physics. WAA is a killer, but only when you have retreating cold air, not when you have entrenched cold air. 

For a storm to form -and maintain- you need several things with one of them being a constant temperature gradient. When you have a locked in cold air mass, that gradient tends to be off the coast due to the land having less of an ability to hold onto heat and water having the ability to do so. This is why you see cold fronts stall off the coast and see LP develop along coastal waters - the cold air and warm air meet over the water rather than over land when you have continual shots of cold air. 

Models are tools, not gods. As such, forecasting is using these models as the tools they are. When a model shows something which does not fit the overall pattern, it needs to be seriously questioned. Can it be right? Sure. Yet, as forecasters, it is your job to find out what is changing to support the solution. If it doe not make sense, take it with a HUGE grain of salt. 

Lastly, it needs to be recognized which models are handling the patterns the best. This pattern has been handled the most correctly by the GFS. It does not mean that the GFS is the gold standard, however, it needs to be taken into account. The Euro has had a hard time handling this pattern, and this too must be taken into account. It should be questioned as to why each model is handling a given pattern better than another. Then, use this knowledge to help you interpret. 

Models are tools. Treat them as such. 

I want to say that this entire post is the most well written post that I have read in many years on this forum. As a physical geographer/meteorologist, this was an excellent response to our existing weather patterns and mimics my exact thoughts as well. 

[Volcanic Winter]

@bluewave

That was a phenomenal read, thank you! 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

From all the historical accounts, the winter of 1779-1780 was the coldest winter on record during that era. 

https://www.nps.gov/morr/learn/education/classrooms/upload/HARD-WINTER-P.pdf

ALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE WINTER OF 1779-80 IS THE WORST WINTER EVER KNOWN IN THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
David M. Ludlum in his book Early American Winters 1604-1820, in the chapter on “The Hard Winter of 1779- 80” writes that it was“the most hard difficult winter....that ever was known by any person living. There has been only one winter in recorded American history during which the waters surrounding New York City have frozen over and remained closed to all navigation for weeks at a time...the Hard Winter of 1780.”
According to Ludlum, January 1780 rated as the most persistently cold calendar month in the history of the eastern United States and “The severity of the 1780 season reached all parts of the colonies Reports from Maine southward along the seaboard to Georgia, and from Detroit down through the interior waterways to New Orleans, all chronicled tales of deep snow, and widespread suffering.”
Ludlum believed that his research definitely showed that the season of 1779-80 in the eastern United States well deserved  the name given to it by the people that experienced its effects....The Hard Winter

EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS SUPPORT THIS BELIEF
William Smith (a loyali<t living in New York City) record< in his diary that on January 16, 1780, people were walking across the frozen Hudson River from New York to Paulus Hook (today Jersey City) New Jersey.
A Hessian <oldier, Johann Dohla recorded in hi< diary on January 30, “The North (Hudson) and East rivers were frozen solid. The ice was checked and found to be eighteen feet thick. All ships  were frozen in, and it was possible to cross over the North (Hudson) River on foot, riding or driving, without fear.” Later, (on February 22) Dohla wrote “Today the North River ice began to break, after having been frozen for nearly seven weeks.” A German officer, Major Baurmei<ter wrote, “The severe winter covered the North River with ice early in January; even where the current of the rivers <wifte<t, the ice was eleven feet thick, in spite of the fact that it is 1,800 yard< wide between Fort George (today Battery Park, New York City) and Powles Hook.”
February 1780 seems to have been even colder: On February 10, William Smith mentionsin his diary that a few days earlier a “24 Pounder” (that i<, a cannon that fired a solid ball weighing 24 pounds—the entire cannon weighed three tons) was rolled across the Hudson  River to PaulusHook (today part of Jersey City, New Jersey.) Smith goes on to say that even a heavy load as this  it

made no impression on the ice. On the night of February 10th, Smith heard that four to five hundred British cavalry rode their horses across the river
IIIIIIIIIII
MANY ACCOUNTS MENTION UNPRECEDENTED CONDITIONS
A teacher in Yale College (New Haven, Connecticut) recorded approximately twenty days with snowfall, and a total of 95 inches of snow that winter. People walked across the Sound from Stanford, Connecticut to Long Island . Others walked from Rhode Island mainland to Block Island. Chesapeake Bay and the York River in Virginia froze over for the first time since Europeans settled there. Many people mentioned in letters that
they could not remember a winter as bad.
 

That's cool, although I have to call bs on walking to Block Island.

[uncle W]

the cold December of 1831...

NYC averaged 22.2...-2.7 lower than the lowest December in Central Park...Average came from Fort Columbus on Governors Island NY...I found a daily record from Erasmus Hall in Brooklyn NY...Highs and lows are the morning observation and afternoon observation...Highs and lows could be a little higher or lower each day...

day max...min...snow...depth...

01... 32.....23.....T.......1"

02... 32.....23.....0.......1"

03... 26.....22.....0.......1"

04... 30.....20.....2"......3"

05... 25.....14.....0.......3"

06... 25.....15.....0.......3"

07... 26.....14.....0.......3"

08... 28.....20.....0.......3"

09... 32.....24.....0.......3"

10... 30.....20.....0.......2"

11... 35.....20.....0.......1"

12... 27.....18.....0.......1"

13... 25.....16.....0.......1"

14... 23.....17.....1"......2"

15... 21.....13.....2"......4"

16... 25.....11.....0.......4"

17... 26.....11.....T.......4"

18... 17.......9.....0.......4"

19... 26.....18.....0.......4"

20... 26.....18.....0.......4"

21... 38.....24.....0.......2"

22... 24.....10.....0.......2"

23... 24.......8.....0.......2"

24... 38.....26.....2"......2" might have started as rain...

25... 34.....26.....1"......2" White Christmas...

26... 30.....20.....1"......3"

27... 25.....18.....0.......3"

28... 29.....21...10"....13"

29... 33.....24.....0.....13"

30... 24.....13.....0.....13"

31... 32.....18.....2"....13"

http://www.glenallenweather.com/ex9/Very%20Cold%20Periods%20in%20the%20Eastern%20US.pdf

[Snowshack]

Love that snow cover every day in December - can’t imagine we’ll see that again

[WarrenCtyWx]

52 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the cold December of 1831...

NYC averaged 22.2...-2.7 lower than the lowest December in Central Park...Average came from Fort Columbus on Governors Island NY...I found a daily record from Erasmus Hall in Brooklyn NY...Highs and lows are the morning observation and afternoon observation...Highs and lows could be a little higher or lower each day...

day max...min...snow...depth...

01... 32.....23.....T.......1"

02... 32.....23.....0.......1"

03... 26.....22.....0.......1"

04... 30.....20.....2"......3"

05... 25.....14.....0.......3"

06... 25.....15.....0.......3"

07... 26.....14.....0.......3"

08... 28.....20.....0.......3"

09... 32.....24.....0.......3"

10... 30.....20.....0.......2"

11... 35.....20.....0.......1"

12... 27.....18.....0.......1"

13... 25.....16.....0.......1"

14... 23.....17.....1"......2"

15... 21.....13.....2"......4"

16... 25.....11.....0.......4"

17... 26.....11.....T.......4"

18... 17.......9.....0.......4"

19... 26.....18.....0.......4"

20... 26.....18.....0.......4"

21... 38.....24.....0.......2"

22... 24.....10.....0.......2"

23... 24.......8.....0.......2"

24... 38.....26.....2"......2" might have started as rain...

25... 34.....26.....1"......2" White Christmas...

26... 30.....20.....1"......3"

27... 25.....18.....0.......3"

28... 29.....21...10"....13"

29... 33.....24.....0.....13"

30... 24.....13.....0.....13"

31... 32.....18.....2"....13"

http://www.glenallenweather.com/ex9/Very%20Cold%20Periods%20in%20the%20Eastern%20US.pdf

Neat. It would be interesting to see some stats from other months that winter or during that general timeframe.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

the cold December of 1831...

NYC averaged 22.2...-2.7 lower than the lowest December in Central Park...Average came from Fort Columbus on Governors Island NY...I found a daily record from Erasmus Hall in Brooklyn NY...Highs and lows are the morning observation and afternoon observation...Highs and lows could be a little higher or lower each day...

day max...min...snow...depth...

01... 32.....23.....T.......1"

02... 32.....23.....0.......1"

03... 26.....22.....0.......1"

04... 30.....20.....2"......3"

05... 25.....14.....0.......3"

06... 25.....15.....0.......3"

07... 26.....14.....0.......3"

08... 28.....20.....0.......3"

09... 32.....24.....0.......3"

10... 30.....20.....0.......2"

11... 35.....20.....0.......1"

12... 27.....18.....0.......1"

13... 25.....16.....0.......1"

14... 23.....17.....1"......2"

15... 21.....13.....2"......4"

16... 25.....11.....0.......4"

17... 26.....11.....T.......4"

18... 17.......9.....0.......4"

19... 26.....18.....0.......4"

20... 26.....18.....0.......4"

21... 38.....24.....0.......2"

22... 24.....10.....0.......2"

23... 24.......8.....0.......2"

24... 38.....26.....2"......2" might have started as rain...

25... 34.....26.....1"......2" White Christmas...

26... 30.....20.....1"......3"

27... 25.....18.....0.......3"

28... 29.....21...10"....13"

29... 33.....24.....0.....13"

30... 24.....13.....0.....13"

31... 32.....18.....2"....13"

http://www.glenallenweather.com/ex9/Very%20Cold%20Periods%20in%20the%20Eastern%20US.pdf

Wow I think that was one of those seasons where NYC and Philly had around 100" of snow.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

From all the historical accounts, the winter of 1779-1780 was the coldest winter on record during that era. 

https://www.nps.gov/morr/learn/education/classrooms/upload/HARD-WINTER-P.pdf

ALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE WINTER OF 1779-80 IS THE WORST WINTER EVER KNOWN IN THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
David M. Ludlum in his book Early American Winters 1604-1820, in the chapter on “The Hard Winter of 1779- 80” writes that it was“the most hard difficult winter....that ever was known by any person living. There has been only one winter in recorded American history during which the waters surrounding New York City have frozen over and remained closed to all navigation for weeks at a time...the Hard Winter of 1780.”
According to Ludlum, January 1780 rated as the most persistently cold calendar month in the history of the eastern United States and “The severity of the 1780 season reached all parts of the colonies Reports from Maine southward along the seaboard to Georgia, and from Detroit down through the interior waterways to New Orleans, all chronicled tales of deep snow, and widespread suffering.”
Ludlum believed that his research definitely showed that the season of 1779-80 in the eastern United States well deserved  the name given to it by the people that experienced its effects....The Hard Winter

EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS SUPPORT THIS BELIEF
William Smith (a loyali<t living in New York City) record< in his diary that on January 16, 1780, people were walking across the frozen Hudson River from New York to Paulus Hook (today Jersey City) New Jersey.
A Hessian <oldier, Johann Dohla recorded in hi< diary on January 30, “The North (Hudson) and East rivers were frozen solid. The ice was checked and found to be eighteen feet thick. All ships  were frozen in, and it was possible to cross over the North (Hudson) River on foot, riding or driving, without fear.” Later, (on February 22) Dohla wrote “Today the North River ice began to break, after having been frozen for nearly seven weeks.” A German officer, Major Baurmei<ter wrote, “The severe winter covered the North River with ice early in January; even where the current of the rivers <wifte<t, the ice was eleven feet thick, in spite of the fact that it is 1,800 yard< wide between Fort George (today Battery Park, New York City) and Powles Hook.”
February 1780 seems to have been even colder: On February 10, William Smith mentionsin his diary that a few days earlier a “24 Pounder” (that i<, a cannon that fired a solid ball weighing 24 pounds—the entire cannon weighed three tons) was rolled across the Hudson  River to PaulusHook (today part of Jersey City, New Jersey.) Smith goes on to say that even a heavy load as this  it

made no impression on the ice. On the night of February 10th, Smith heard that four to five hundred British cavalry rode their horses across the river
IIIIIIIIIII
MANY ACCOUNTS MENTION UNPRECEDENTED CONDITIONS
A teacher in Yale College (New Haven, Connecticut) recorded approximately twenty days with snowfall, and a total of 95 inches of snow that winter. People walked across the Sound from Stanford, Connecticut to Long Island . Others walked from Rhode Island mainland to Block Island. Chesapeake Bay and the York River in Virginia froze over for the first time since Europeans settled there. Many people mentioned in letters that
they could not remember a winter as bad.
 

From what I've read there was a day in January 1780 that was even colder than the -15 recorded in February 1934, albeit only barely colder, still it's quite the accomplishment!

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

That's cool, although I have to call bs on walking to Block Island.

We do know there were shops set up in the middle of the Hudson River and people walked across from Manhattan to New Jersey.

[Snowshack]

36 minutes ago, Torch said:

Why not?

We can’t get through December without seeing 50’s or higher.  It’s basically a fall month.  

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

We can’t get through December without seeing 50’s or higher.  It’s basically a fall month.  

The fastest warming month

 

[Albedoman]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

From what I've read there was a day in January 1780 that was even colder than the -15 recorded in February 1934, albeit only barely colder, still it's quite the accomplishment!

 

wonder if this volcanic eruption was a major player in 1778 to create a cold winter  in 1779 like Pinatubo did  in 1991 for 1994  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raikoke?  If that is the case watch out  next winter with Tonga volcano 

[Volcanic Winter]

Kid in a candy store reading this link, thanks again:

 

http://www.glenallenweather.com/ex9/Very Cold Periods in the Eastern US.pdf

 

Reports from this time period are absolutely fascinating. Imagine a December without it reaching 40 degrees and having snow cover the entire month, just unbelievable stuff.

[Volcanic Winter]

29 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

wonder if this volcanic eruption was a major player in 1778 to create a cold winter  in 1779 like Pinatubo did  in 1991 for 1994  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raikoke?  If that is the case watch out  next winter with Tonga volcano 

VEI 4 is too small to impact the climate and VEI 5 at the high end usually has only a minor impact (-0.1-.2C). Pinatubo was substantially larger. According to the Smithsonian GVP (https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=290250) , this was a VEI 4 level eruption and thus wouldn't likely have had much of an impact.

The Laki eruption was a few years prior, while only classified as a VEI 4 or 5* as it only had a brief explosive phase, it erupted over 15km^3 of extremely sulphur rich magma and put so much gas into the atmosphere it was killing people in Europe. This was estimated to ultimately have a climate impact even though little was directly injected into the stratosphere, which is usually the driver for volcanic cooling.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki

https://www.volcanocafe.org/laki-deconstructed-ii-anatomy-of-an-eruption/

"[Laki] 120,000,000 long tons of sulfur dioxide was emitted, about three times the total annual European industrial output in 2006 (but delivered to higher altitudes, hence its persistence), and equivalent to six times the total 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption"

This eruption was essentially, mechanically, a miniature flood basalt.

*The VEI scale is somewhat flawed and cannot measure effusive eruptions well. Laki is a VEI 4-5 only because its explosive tephra production was limited, but it effused an absolutely massive amount of magma and an even more massive amount of sulphur. More on the scale of a VEI 6 like Pinatubo, though considerably more sulphur as mentioned above. Laki was highly anomalous and exceptional in many ways.

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

storm signal there for end of month all you can ask for this far out..

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

storm signal there for end of month all you can ask for this far out..

Best signal we had all winter 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

From what I've read there was a day in January 1780 that was even colder than the -15 recorded in February 1934, albeit only barely colder, still it's quite the accomplishment!

 

Also of note regarding February1934, the average temperature that month in NYC was 19.9°. Throw on top of that 27.9 inches of snow that fell that month and it's a winter lovers fantasy, come true.

It remains and probably always will, the coldest month recorded in NYC since official records (1870) have been kept. 1.8° colder than the second coldest month ever January 1918's 21.7° average.

[Jt17]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Best signal we had all winter 

969 just after passing the benchmark, would be pretty wild... only 8 days away, LOCK IT IN lolz

[MJO812]

[hooralph]

Team “Winter of 1717” here.

[hooralph]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What Blizzard of 78 fever dream is that?

[nycwinter]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

reminds me of nemo...

[Jt17]

00z no longer an inland runner at least and also sub 970 low like GFS - nice signal 7.5 days out 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Also of note regarding February1934, the average temperature that month in NYC was 19.9°. Throw on top of that 27.9 inches of snow that fell that month and it's a winter lovers fantasy, come true.

It remains and probably always will, the coldest month recorded in NYC since official records (1870) have been kept. 1.8° colder than the second coldest month ever January 1918's 21.7° average.

Makes you wonder what exactly happened that month to make it so cold?

It has to be something outside of the regular climate and weather forces.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, nycwinter said:

reminds me of nemo...

This would be Nemo on steroids with 2 feet of snow getting all the way back to SW Nassau (forget about these insane totals, the big picture is a larger area getting the heaviest snows.)

 

[EasternLI]

EPS with continued improvement for next weekend at 00z. 

[MJO812]

[EasternLI]

Getting some powerhouse looks at H5 on the models. Should be fun to track it this week. 

[SnoSki14]

Something is def going to happen end of January given strong and consistent signals from ensembles. 

Way too early to say what exactly though.

That's a strong signal from 06z GEFS. The problem is whether the trough axis will end up too far east leading to another close call. 

I'd like to see a sharper ridge out west moving forward. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 26degs. (21/32], or -7.

Month to date is  32.3[-1.6].        Should be  30.8[-2.9] by the 30th.

Reached 23 here yesterday.

Today: 27-30, wind n. and light, m. clear.   

GFS has the end of month storm again.

15*(48%RH) here at 6am.      19* at 9am.     24* at Noon.....but suddenly 27* at 12:30pm.       34* at 4pm.      28* at 8pm.