Allsnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Looks great but I feel like the GEFS is more accurate. Just trying to illustrate my point that TPV position will be important 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Amazing difference still between GEFS and EPS. Negative AO and NAO GEFS Positive on EPS. Both still have the trough in east coast. This difference would have major implications on storm tracks 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Amazing difference still between GEFS and EPS. Negative AO and NAO GEFS Positive on EPS. Both still have the trough in east coast. This difference would have major implications on storm tracks Those would be +AO. For negative you’d want ridging near the pole. GEFS has the -NAO but east based and not too useful for us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Went down to 10 here this morning, slightly disappointed I didn’t hit single digits after a high of 18 that was a few degrees below forecast. Last temps were that low was Jan 31, 2019 when I went down to 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 58 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Those would be +AO. For negative you’d want ridging near the pole. GEFS has the -NAO but east based and not too useful for us. I thought we did ok with east based, especially City on east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 A strong storm will bring a period of snow or freezing rain changing to rain to much of the region late tonight into tomorrow. A moderate to significant snowfall is likely across central and upstate New York into central and northern New England. Western and Upstate New York, along with parts of Ontario and Quebec could see a significant snowfall. Some of those areas could pick up a foot or more of snow. Eastern New England and much of Long Island will likely experience mostly or all rain. High winds will produce coastal flooding especially during high tide tomorrow morning. Snowfall estimates: Allentown: 1"-3" Baltimore: 1"-3" Bridgeport: 1" or less New York City: 0.5" or less Newark: 1" or less Philadelphia: 1" or less Poughkeepsie: 2"-4" Washington, DC: 1"-3" The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 27th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative. Some of the guidance suggests that the AO could go negative around or just after January 20th for a time. Overall, the cold pattern currently in place will likely last into at least the closing days of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -14.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.870. On January 14 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.312 (RMM). The January 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.697 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.9° (2.8° below normal). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On 1/9/2022 at 9:29 PM, forkyfork said: we entered a snow blitz pattern Hey Forky do you still feel the same given the recent rain event? Obviously understood that favorable patterns do not always produce. If you still feel this is still on track no need to respond. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 the good stuff will come with the pac ridge pattern toward the end of the month 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Kicking than can... end of the month... February... March... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Interesting trends with the anafrontsl feature during the week . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I see 0z Euro is back to giving us a snowstorm for saturday. The heavier snow misses us just to the south on this run, but it's a good look this early. The position of the ridge out west gives us a decent chance with this threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 A lot of baroclinicity just offshore and a strong high to the north anchoring the cold air. Could be interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 21 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Walt! I am going to be extremely un-scientific here and say "somethin's gonna get us" I am fascinated with this extreme cold followed by rain followed by extreme cold. I feel like the 1980s and early 90s had this happen often. it's our normal weather pattern.....simplifying it think of it this way.....northwest and north winds, cold and dry....storms come from the west or southwest....counterclockwise flow brings in mild air from the ocean, so it almost always warms up before the storm comes, and then north to northwest winds behind the storm means the cold air comes back after the storm. Thats why cold to rain and back to cold is our most stable weather pattern. Nothing really fascinating about it-- it's how our weather is supposed to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 21 hours ago, bluewave said: The low of 6° at Newark is the coldest in 3 years. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2022-04-30 6 105 2021-04-30 16 0 2020-04-30 12 0 2019-04-30 2 0 2018-04-30 4 0 2017-04-30 12 0 2016-04-30 0 0 2015-04-30 1 0 2014-04-30 3 0 2013-04-30 11 0 2012-04-30 12 0 2011-04-30 5 0 2010-04-30 14 0 no single digits at any of the city locations, Chris? How close did the park and two city airports get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 20 hours ago, wdrag said: Will start Jan 21-23 open ended east coast storm thread-threat to likely (not categorically) followed by coldest weather of the season around the 24th. I think we're noticing each cold surge getting a little colder here in the northeast as the month proceeds. I see two more potentially big shots of cold air around here (24th), 27th)... dates fluid. 921A/16 maybe chances of getting below zero even in the city, Walt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 19 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: It's coming back! whats coming back? AO index seems to be all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 15 hours ago, snowman19 said: A trough down to Southern California is bad for us. Numbers don’t matter, I don’t care if the PNA index is -1 or -2, look at the actual synoptic setup, it’s not going to magically be a good pattern for us because the PNA is only -1. If a western trough is dumped down to Tijuana, it’s a bad pattern for us. There are also hints of a +NAO in February, if that’s the case and the NAO is +, along with the RNA, we got big problems of the SE ridge type….. actually it's not February but March when such a pattern can work, with troughs on both coasts you need shorter wavelengths, which don't happen in February. February is going to the month of thaw this season (and we deserve it with how cold January has been.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 15 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Will have to see the EPS but that is a pretty classic SRN US/MA snow setup at 140-170....and also its fairly common to see a few Op runs or even ensembles lose those sort of events at this range because they bury the shortwave in the Gulf. I would not be shocked at all if this makes a comeback and I think it does but I'd favor the SE US and SRN MA for now we've been seeing this more and more over the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 15 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: And the EPS has it mostly as an inland snow event LOL. So much for that prediction by me it could still be an inland southern snow event though....those are the ones that have become more common again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 14 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Amazing difference still between GEFS and EPS. Negative AO and NAO GEFS Positive on EPS. Both still have the trough in east coast. This difference would have major implications on storm tracks what if we split the difference and those indices are close to neutral? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A strong storm will bring a period of snow or freezing rain changing to rain to much of the region late tonight into tomorrow. A moderate to significant snowfall is likely across central and upstate New York into central and northern New England. Western and Upstate New York, along with parts of Ontario and Quebec could see a significant snowfall. Some of those areas could pick up a foot or more of snow. Eastern New England and much of Long Island will likely experience mostly or all rain. High winds will produce coastal flooding especially during high tide tomorrow morning. Snowfall estimates: Allentown: 1"-3" Baltimore: 1"-3" Bridgeport: 1" or less New York City: 0.5" or less Newark: 1" or less Philadelphia: 1" or less Poughkeepsie: 2"-4" Washington, DC: 1"-3" The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 27th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative. Some of the guidance suggests that the AO could go negative around or just after January 20th for a time. Overall, the cold pattern currently in place will likely last into at least the closing days of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was -14.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.870. On January 14 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.312 (RMM). The January 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.697 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.9° (2.8° below normal). Don when was the last time we had a month average below freezing? Seems to becoming much more rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 9 hours ago, eduggs said: Kicking than can... end of the month... February... March... dude end of the month is when the coldest air is supposed to be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: maybe chances of getting below zero even in the city, Walt? Will look at this in the evening. No time for next 4 hours cleaning up this the heavy load here. Thanks for the tip. I was just below zero at this time yesterday but NYC 10F. Nice pattern. Hope it can deliver something nice for NYC beyond 1-2 hours. Walt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, wdrag said: Will look at this in the evening. No time for next 4 hours cleaning up this the heavy load here. Thanks for the tip. I was just below zero at this time yesterday but NYC 10F. Nice pattern. Hope it can deliver something nice for NYC beyond 1-2 hours. Walt Thanks so much for the storm thread Walt, it was unexpectedly exciting with the severe weather and water spouts thrown into the mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 30degs.(25/35) or -3. Month to date is 32.3[-1.8]. Should be 31.5[-2.2] by the 25th. Reached 40 by midnight, from 12 at 6:30am. Today: Low 40's early, falling slowly to 27 tomorrow AM, drizzle early, cloudy, wind e. changing to w., breezy. Snow outlook not looking good for next 10 days. EURO with 4" on Saturday is the best. 45*(85%RH) here at 6am.{was 46* at 5am}. 44* at 6:30am. 42* at 8am. 40* at 9am. 38* at 11am. 34* at 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Coldest January so far for NYC in 4 years. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 16 Missing Count 2022-01-16 32.3 0 2021-01-16 37.7 0 2020-01-16 42.6 0 2019-01-16 35.3 0 2018-01-16 26.5 0 2017-01-16 35.9 0 2016-01-16 35.9 0 2015-01-16 29.1 0 2014-01-16 32.0 0 2013-01-16 38.7 0 2012-01-16 36.3 0 2011-01-16 31.2 0 2010-01-16 29.7 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JanClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2022 32.3 15 2021 34.8 0 2020 39.1 0 2019 32.5 0 2018 31.7 0 2017 38.0 0 2016 34.5 0 2015 29.9 0 2014 28.6 0 2013 35.1 0 2012 37.3 0 2011 29.7 0 2010 32.5 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 A few chances of snow coming up Snow showers possible today Some snow from the anafront on Thursday Models are still split about phasing the 1st wave or 2nd wave this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 38 here as of 7:30 AM, down 3 in the past hour. Total of 1.5" in the rainbucket overnite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Looks like the southeast has a better chance of seeing snow than the northeast going into the upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, LoboLeader1 said: Looks like the southeast has a better chance of seeing snow than the northeast going into the upcoming weekend. That graph % ends saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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