psv88 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Up to 16. But midnight high of 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yup. This IS a repeat of December which is good as.... 1.) Highly unlikely we go recorded RNA twice in one season 2.) As Don and Snowgoose alluded to RNA is less hostile in February (2nd half). Also this may mean that the January look returns in March! As the wave lengths continue to shorten in March, snowstorms are more widely dispersed. The large scale patterns suggested by the teleconnections become relatively less important than smaller scale features. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Tropical convection on guidance currently is supportive of the Western trough showing up. So we probably will get to see how it plays out. That looks real this time as advertised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: COMPLETELY AGREE. Low over the lakes bothers me. Way more concerned about cutting. 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Very close I'm more worried about this running inland 23 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Agree but high is in a great position right now. But we know that can change in a week. AO looks to tank for next weekend, so the chance of a cutter looks rather low IMHO. The AO is flying up for the current storm, one of the reasons that I was really not too bullish for the storm hitting us tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 23 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. Good call on the RNA coming back the tail end of the month into February. Full-latitude trough back in the west Thanks. Let’s not forget my p8 call for January either lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Tropical convection on guidance currently is supportive of the Western trough showing up. So we probably will get to see how it plays out. That looks real this time as advertised. Pointed this out just before but the models are suggesting that we have +NAO to go along with the RNA this go around, unlike December. The CFS (which has surprisingly done very well so far since November) is suggesting a strong +NAO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 A deep trough in the West is never a good pattern for us during any month from December to March. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Pointed this out just before but the models are suggesting that we have +NAO to go along with the RNA this go around, unlike December. The CFS (which has surprisingly done very well so far since November) is suggesting a strong +NAO: NAO is a different animal. I don't trust models beyond the regular ensembles. The NAO can be forced in different ways. It's the most unpredictable domain. Need to take that one week at a time. Especially considering it has shown up already this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Preferably, in my humble opinion, if we do see a deep western trough again. I'd rather we didn't have a concurrent negative NAO this time. That just puts us in compression purgatory again like December. I'd prefer to just let the SE ridge allow some warmer weather in here. But we have no control, so we monitor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 At least we got a nice storm here. 9” on the season. Could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: A deep trough in the West is never a good pattern for us during any month from December to March. Well good at least this crappy cold will be gone. Cold/dry is just awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 ewr and nyc both got to 20. pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: ewr and nyc both got to 20. pathetic Below forecast highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: A deep trough in the West is never a good pattern for us during any month from December to March. 100% agree BUT what are the chances it's that deep again? December was almost if not record levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: A deep trough in the West is never a good pattern for us during any month from December to March. Yea, there’s kind of no way to spin a full-latitude trough dumped in the west into a good pattern for us…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yea, there’s kind of no way to spin a full-latitude trough dumped in the west into a good pattern for us…. Maybe it will be negative 1 instead of record levels this time and in February. Then we have snowfall opportunities. A lot up in the air but would think we avoid record RNA levels again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Well good at least this crappy cold will be gone. Cold/dry is just awful That wasn’t the point that I was trying to make. Models have been consistent in showing the Western Ridge pulling back to the Aleutians in early February. The EPS weeklies have been showing this for a while. Now the GEFS is picking up on the retrogression. This would allow the trough to return to the West. If this trough is too deep, then it just pumps the SE Ridge. This scenario would be a less favorable -PNA. The more favorable -PNA patterns for us in February involve a shallower trough over Western Canada with a flatter ridge over the SW US. A north based -PNA if you like. But the recent models are showing more of a deeper trough returning to the Western US in early February. But even that type of pattern could still allow for a small snow event like we got in February 2018. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I guess all in all February will hinge on whether or not we repeat record RNA vs. Typical RNA. Plus if the RNA returns what's to say the current pattern does not come back as well. Will be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: ewr and nyc both got to 20. pathetic What are your thoughts on February/March? You nailed the last storm and would like to get your opinion (believe the board as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I guess all in all February will hinge on whether or not we repeat record RNA vs. Typical RNA. Plus if the RNA returns what's to say the current pattern does not come back as well. Will be fun to watch unfold. I don't expect the RNA to be record territory this time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Yeah, we're talking about a western trough, but it's not determined how deep that would be. Simply that it's a favored feature at this time as February begins. Variations matter. Regardless, like it or not, there's a couple snow threats before then as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: That’s why we discuss the 500 mb patterns where the actual height anomalies are located. Raw teleconnection indices by themselves don’t tell you very much. Models are good at identifying the long range long wave patterns. These 500 mb patterns give a good broad sketch of what type of weather is possible within a certain domain. Back in December, the deep Western Trough that the models forecast from mid to late November was the dominant feature. So the lack of snow then was no surprise given the type of 500 mb pattern being shown. As soon as the trough began to lift out of the West in early January, we got the 6-10” snow event. This has matched the past climatology for our area following Pacific pattern changes. I'm just sick of the long range pattern talk in general. This week is a perfect example. The 500mb height anomalies for this whole week scream snowstorm potential, maybe even multiple events. But as always, snowstorms are determined by details at a finer scale. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 hours ago, jfklganyc said: As of today, Hunter Mt is reporting 6 inches os snow for season That is on par for 2015…which is a historically low season I didn't think a year like 2015 was possible for that area before it happened. Now it's happening again. I doubt it will finish as bad as that year, but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Good that means something is coming. The Nova Scotia-New Brunswick Ocean storm never came. The Delmarva, southern NJ storm never came. Plenty of storms don't come NW. If there's no strong, amplifying shortwave, it's not coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: The Nova Scotia-New Brunswick Ocean storm never came. The Delmarva, southern NJ storm never came. Plenty of storms don't come NW. If there's no strong, amplifying shortwave, it's not coming. Models didn't show any of those storms impacting us. Some showed a brush at best. Modeling has done a great job narrowing where the real impacts will be several days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 44 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I guess all in all February will hinge on whether or not we repeat record RNA vs. Typical RNA. Plus if the RNA returns what's to say the current pattern does not come back as well. Will be fun to watch unfold. Feb is 4 weeks long. There will be good stretches and bad. Personally I think Spring comes early and we better make the best of these next few weeks, especially near the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 16 currently. Not terrible in the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Models didn't show any of those storms impacting us. Some showed a brush at best. Modeling has done a great job narrowing where the real impacts will be several days in advance. Well one run of the GFS impacted us with the Ocean storm. And several model runs, particularly on the GFS, got plowable snow to NYC with the SNJ event. But I agree, guidance consistently showed those not impacting us. My point is that storms don't always trend NW, especially once models are locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 36 minutes ago, eduggs said: I'm just sick of the long range pattern talk in general. This week is a perfect example. The 500mb height anomalies for this whole week scream snowstorm potential, maybe even multiple events. But as always, snowstorms are determined by details at a finer scale. The long range pattern discussions have been doing very well this winter so far. Models were indicating a very warm and snowless December from as early as late November. This month we got a 6-10” snowstorm as soon as the Pacific flipped. While the 500 mb height anomalies for this last week were indicating cold, they never had the big classic snowstorm look for us. The PNA ridge was centered too far to the east indicating suppression potential for the ocean storm. The Monday cutter emerged due to the lack of blocking to hold the Canadian high in place over New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 If it becomes clear and the wind dies down, this could be the coldest night of the season in many suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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