January 2022

[lee59]

Temperature starting to drop, 39. Wind picking up gusting to 30.

[LoboLeader1]

30* here under a clear sky

[donsutherland1]

Another frigid air mass is currently overspreading the region. Tomorrow will be very cold despite partly sunny skies. Temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 20s.

After a dry weekend, a strong storm could bring snow changing to rain to much of the region late Sunday night and Monday. A small accumulation of snow and sleet appears likely in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. A moderate to significant snowfall is likely across central and upstate New York into central and northern New England. Western and Upstate New York into Quebec could see a significant snowfall. Eastern New England and much of Long Island will likely experience mostly or all rain. High winds could produce coastal flooding especially during high tide on Monday morning.

January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will very likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks until late in the month.

The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 24th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative. Some of the guidance suggests that the AO could go negative around or just after January 18th for a time.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was -9.70 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.500.

On January 12 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.069 (RMM). The January 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.338 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.3° (2.4° below normal).

 

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I see a few opportunities for snow before things change. Maybe the 20/21st then 24-26th and likely Jan 30-Feb 3 period. 

It's very frustrating that we're missing an opportunity with the sunday night into monday storm, but consistent cold weather means chances are very high that we'll see more snow in the next couple weeks. It would be pretty difficult to have a cold 2nd half of January and not get any snow out of it. Obviously it can happen, but it would take very bad luck.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Another frigid air mass is currently overspreading the region. Tomorrow will be very cold despite partly sunny skies. Temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 20s.

After a dry weekend, a strong storm could bring snow changing to rain to much of the region late Sunday night and Monday. A small accumulation of snow and sleet appears likely in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. A moderate to significant snowfall is likely across central and upstate New York into central and northern New England. Western and Upstate New York into Quebec could see a significant snowfall. Eastern New England and much of Long Island will likely experience mostly or all rain. High winds could produce coastal flooding especially during high tide on Monday morning.

January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will very likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks until late in the month.

The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 24th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative. Some of the guidance suggests that the AO could go negative around or just after January 18th for a time.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was -9.70 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.500.

On January 12 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.069 (RMM). The January 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.338 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.3° (2.4° below normal).

 

Looks like the AO/NAO are both going down Don?

Should be good for snow after the 20th?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

It's very frustrating that we're missing an opportunity with the sunday night into monday storm, but consistent cold weather means chances are very high that we'll see more snow in the next couple weeks. It would be pretty difficult to have a cold 2nd half of January and not get any snow out of it. Obviously it can happen, but it would take very bad luck.

Not necessarily-- if it's too cold it means a suppressed storm track.  We want average cold.

[lee59]

Wind gusting to 39mph. and temperature down to 25.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like the AO/NAO are both going down Don?

Should be good for snow after the 20th?

 

It should be more promising, but favorable patterns don’t always produce. Next weekend (1/22-23) might provide one snowfall opportunity.

[Rjay]

23 with north winds gusting over 40mph

[LoboLeader1]

18 here

[BxEngine]

Fire in passaic on radar….

[Intensewind002]

Winds still ripping pretty good rn, I just recorded a gust to 40 mph. Temp down to 21 here

[Rjay]

16 degrees. Winds continue to gust between 35-40mph in Holbrook. 

[LoboLeader1]

8 degrees here as of 5:15 this AM

[Rjay]

10 in Holbrook.   Winds continue to gust between 35-40 mph

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 13 here. 

[Snowlover11]

12F in Yonkers.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 27degs.(20/33) or -6.

Reached 43 here yesterday.

Today: 23-25, wind n. and breezy early, skies variable, about 10 tomorrow AM.

EURO has 70mph gusts for me at 4am, Monday.      GFS is 50mph.    Only model with snow for the next 10 days is the CMC.

14*(50%RH) here at 6am.{was 24 at midnite}.     13* at 7am.      17* at Noon.      22*  at 3pm.

[EasternLI]

Next weekend is still on the radar. Let's see how we can get this one to track into Cleveland 

[gravitylover]

5° up here on the (windy) hill, 2-3° down below. 

[LoboLeader1]

29 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Next weekend is still on the radar. Let's see how we can get this one to track into Cleveland 

Don't count on it, this winter has been a disappointment thus far.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 in Highalnd mills. Orange County. 

[lee59]

10 degrees here, Saranac Lake in the Adirondacks is -22.

[uofmiami]

8 in Syosset 

[bluewave]

Let’s hope we can cash in in this +PNA -EPO while we have it in late January. The latest ensembles moved to the EPS idea of a pattern reversal in early February. The big ridge pulls back to the Aleutians allowing a more neutral to eventually -PNA in early February.

 

 

[the_other_guy]

13 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Don't count on it, this winter has been a disappointment thus far.

When guys are tracking things 8/9 days out and creating 30 page threads that overshadow the whole forum what do you expect?

Within any reasonable timeframe the storm was always going to be rain.

 

 

 

[the_other_guy]

7F Hastings on Hudson

[gpsnavigator]

2 in Sparta with a refreshing breeze.  Those dewpoints are way down there this morning.  We have the humidifier cranked way up.  Having eczema is no fun on these kinds of days.

[Allsnow]

9 degrees lowest in two winters. This is real cold 

[SnoSki14]

18 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

When guys are tracking things 8/9 days out and creating 30 page threads that overshadow the whole forum what do you expect?

Within any reasonable timeframe the storm was always going to be rain.

 

 

 

Agreed Monday never really looked like snow even several days out. I figured the high placement was totally off. 

Ocean storm wasn't a real threat either. The real disappointments are the storm that consistently show snow only to fail 1-2 days out.