January 2022

[EasternLI]

Sometime around the end of next week looks to be the next storm chance after the current one impending. So there's more opportunity ahead. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another mild day. Much of the region will see temperatures rise into the lower 40s. However, the mild period will be shortlived.

Another shot of Arctic air will move in during the weekend. Its arrival could be preceded by some snow or rain showers late Friday or Friday night. After a dry weekend, a strong storm could bring snow changing to rain to much of the region. Details remain to be resolved.

January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will very likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks until late in the month.

The PNA is now positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 24th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative. Some of the guidance suggests that the AO could go negative around or just after January 18th.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was -0.32 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.816.

On January 10 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.056 (RMM). The January 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.886 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.6° (2.1° below normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be another mild day. Much of the region will see temperatures rise into the lower 40s. However, the mild period will be shortlived.

Another shot of Arctic air will move in during the weekend. Its arrival could be preceded by some snow or rain showers late Friday or Friday night. After a dry weekend, a strong storm could bring snow changing to rain to much of the region. Details remain to be resolved.

January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will very likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks until late in the month.

The PNA is now positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 24th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative. Some of the guidance suggests that the AO could go negative around or just after January 18th.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was -0.32 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.816.

On January 10 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.056 (RMM). The January 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.886 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.6° (2.1° below normal).

 

Don any predictions for January monthly snowfall totals?

Over/under 15"?

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is correcting stronger with the -EPO +PNA for late January. So this will allow for even colder temperature potential than we’ll see this weekend. Places with a shorter period of observations like JFK could come near record lows later in January. We’ll see if some stations with longer observation periods can approach record lows.The last time JFK had record lows in late January was 2019.

 

 

1/25	5 in 1961	7 in 2004	8 in 1963
1/26	9 in 2007	9 in 1994	13 in 1961
1/27	2 in 1994	8 in 2003	9 in 2005
1/28	6 in 2005	7 in 2003	7 in 1966
1/29	3 in 1977	9 in 1966	10 in 2005
1/30	7 in 2019	8 in 1952	10 in 1977+
1/31	3 in 2019	10 in 1977	11 in 1962

 

 

 

 

 

Wait are you saying JFK could go below zero?

That did not happen on V Day 2016....let's see if we can beat that temperature.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is correcting stronger with the -EPO +PNA for late January. So this will allow for even colder temperature potential than we’ll see this weekend. Places with a shorter period of observations like JFK could come near record lows later in January. We’ll see if some stations with longer observation periods can approach record lows.The last time JFK had record lows in late January was 2019.

 

 

1/25	5 in 1961	7 in 2004	8 in 1963
1/26	9 in 2007	9 in 1994	13 in 1961
1/27	2 in 1994	8 in 2003	9 in 2005
1/28	6 in 2005	7 in 2003	7 in 1966
1/29	3 in 1977	9 in 1966	10 in 2005
1/30	7 in 2019	8 in 1952	10 in 1977+
1/31	3 in 2019	10 in 1977	11 in 1962

 

 

 

 

 

I remember the 2 in 1994.....that was the second arctic outbreak that month that got Central Park to 0 or below.

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

The BNL tower temperatures show how quickly the shallow colder radiational cooling temperatures near the surface can rise with a southerly flow off the Atlantic in the upper 40s.

 

Just an academic question, how high would a sea wall have to be to block this kind of wind and conversely, a sea breeze in the summer?  If we had a hypothetical 50 foot tall sea wall all around the south shore and east end would that be enough to ,reduce the influence of the ocean with sea breezes and southerly flow?  If not how tall would it have to be?

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild High temperatures will likely reach lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 43°

Newark: 45°

Philadelphia: 46°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.2°; 15-Year: 40.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 39.7°; 15-Year: 40.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.1°; 15-Year: 41.9°

Another shot of cold air is likely this weekend. Afterward, a storm will likely bring snow changing to rain late Sunday night or Monday.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don any predictions for January monthly snowfall totals?

Over/under 15"?

 

Probably under 15” but above where things currently stand.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 33degs.(27/39), or just Normal.

Reached 41 yesterday.

Today: 44-47, wind e. to s. to n., variable skies.      Sunday/Monday storm still rain mostly in City.     Jet streak gusts{from east to south} to 50mph in City early Mon. hours.    To 80mph at Montauk Pt.       Friday will be breezy{north} too, prior to above.

37*(65%RH) here at 6am.     36* at 7am.      41* at 10am.     47* at Noon.    45* at 1pm.      Back up to 48* at 3pm.

 

[LoboLeader1]

29* here currently. 

[EastonSN+]

Teles look great moving forward.

MJO on EURO only downside as it quickly moves back to phases 6 and 7.

For some reason cannot get GEFS MJO.

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Probably under 15” but above where things currently stand.

Thanks Don.

Would be disappointing given the favorable pattern, but we have scored big in unfavorable patterns while striking out in favorable patterns before.

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Teles look great moving forward.

MJO on EURO only downside as it quickly moves back to phases 6 and 7.

For some reason cannot get GEFS MJO.

Both the EPS and GEFS give us a classic MJO 8 look in late January as the forcing shifts to the EPAC.

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

That look above is why there are better opportunities after Monday's storm.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don.

Would be disappointing given the favorable pattern, but we have scored big in unfavorable patterns while striking out in favorable patterns before.

 

To avoid confusion, I was referring to Central Park. Other parts of the region could reach 15”.

[EastonSN+]

GEFS looks good to the end.

Only negative I guess is the western ridge keeps migrating west to off the coast at the very end. 

Not too worried as if we do go back to phases 6 and 7 perhaps we can get back to 8 at the start of March.

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEFS looks good to the end.

Only negative I guess is the western ridge keeps migrating west to off the coast at the very end. 

Not too worried as if we do go back to phases 6 and 7 perhaps we can get back to 8 at the start of March.

 

That's the end of winter

[bluewave]

The latest EPS weeklies continue the cold -EPO +PNA for the rest of January. The model begins to shift back to a more Nina-like pattern in early February. Moves the current Nino-like forcing from the Central and EPAC back to the Maritime Continent. So the temperatures begin to moderate then. Any delay in the La Niña forcing to return  would keep the colder pattern going a while longer. Plenty of time to check the actual status of the tropical convection once we get to the beginning of February.

Jan 17-24

Jan 24-31

Jan 31-Feb 7

 

[nycwinter]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's the end of winter

winter never arrived...

[leo2000]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The latest EPS weeklies continue the cold -EPO +PNA for the rest of January. The model begins to shift back to a more Nina-like pattern in early February. Moves the current Nino-like forcing from the Central and EPAC back to the Maritime Continent. So the temperatures begin to moderate then. Any delay in the La Niña forcing to return  would keep the colder pattern going a while longer. Plenty of time to check the actual status of the tropical convection once we get to the beginning of February.

Jan 17-24

Jan 24-31

Jan 31-Feb 7

 

Yeah probably rushed there I am thinking at the earliest February 20th onward before we revert back to La Nina base state. Given how strong the -EPO and +PNA will be. Patterns like this one take a long time to break down. 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That's the end of winter

We get crushed in March a lot. 2018. 2019.

[donsutherland1]

Colder air will begin to return to the region for this weekend. Tomorrow could see some rain or snow showers as an Arctic cold front moves across the region. Saturday will be very cold despite ample sunshine. Temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 20s.

After a dry weekend, a strong storm could bring snow changing to rain to much of the region. Details remain to be resolved. But a small accumulation of snow and sleet appears likely in Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. A moderate to significant snowfall is likely across central and upstate New York into central and northern New England. Western and Upstate New York into Quebec could see a significant snowfall. Eastern New England and much of Long Island will likely experience mostly or all rain. High winds could produce coastal flooding.

January commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the transition toward colder weather has occurred. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly will very likely be below normal. Based on the latest guidance, it appears that the colder pattern that is now in place could last 3-4 weeks until late in the month.

The PNA is positive and is likely to remain positive through at least January 24th. A positive PNA is associated with more frequent snowfalls in the Middle Atlantic region. However, big snowfalls typically occur when the AO is negative. Some of the guidance suggests that the AO could go negative around or just after January 18th for a short period of time.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.05°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +5.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.753.

On January 11 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.337 (RMM). The January 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.059 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (2.2° below normal).

 

[EastonSN+]

Not a fun GFS run. Kind of dry with a couple clippers.

Will probably change.

[eduggs]

I haven't experienced legit daytime snow in a while. All of the "events" this year have been at night. Scanning the LR ensembles... a little bit uninspiring ATM.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I haven't experienced legit daytime snow in a while. All of the "events" this year have been at night. Scanning the LR ensembles... a little bit uninspiring ATM.

Agreed disappointed with the ensembles.

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not a fun GFS run. Kind of dry with a couple clippers.

Will probably change.

I think we'll see snow events develop out of nowhere with short lead times like 13/14

[EasternLI]

Keep an eye on next weekend. Especially after this stemwinder gets out of the way. Nothing is going to blatantly stick out from long range in this type of pattern IMO. But there's something there. 

[Allsnow]

P8 in January dry cold look 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Keep an eye on next weekend. Especially after this stemwinder gets out of the way. Nothing is going to blatantly stick out from long range in this type of pattern IMO. But there's something there. 

Considering this is our upcoming storm, nothing is off the table.

 

 

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Considering this is our upcoming storm, nothing is off the table.

 

 

Yup, agree. It's been a wild ride watching how this thing has emerged. Just need to keep watching things. I feel like something will pop up next week at some point on models. Gotta get this thing out of the way first though.