NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: The kicker is annoying me. Lotta potential here but it's too many little vorts and a displaced baroclinic zone. May have to wait until next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: A day 11 OP model? Really? Belongs in banter Yeah the ensemble looked nothing like it...it was an example though once the Pac jet gets strong of how you run into that same issue of the cold not pressing south at all...that can even happen without a SER if the Pacjet is strong enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 We're all tired of looking for threats out past day 7. We need something trackable inside of day 5. Otherwise it's hard to believe it's real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: We're all tired of looking for threats out past day 7. We need something trackable inside of day 5. Otherwise it's hard to believe it's real. Cmc for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Cmc for this weekend and if you have a little patience the GFS will be ok too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 It's not worth looking at surface charts out past 168hr. H5 and H3 maybe, but still probably not. Ensembles are okay out a little further I guess. But LR surface maps will imprint you with expectation and lead to disappointment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I know it's crazy but I ain't giving up on the ocean storm for Friday. The trends on the GEFS are notable. I'm giving it another day or so to see what the trends are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc for this weekend Mid-Atlantic special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Canadian going in the GFS direction for weekend event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I know it's crazy but I ain't giving up on the ocean storm for Friday. The trends on the GEFS are notable. I'm giving it another day or so to see what the trends are. That storm is a long shot. It’s best for it to get out asap to allow heights to recover enough to get the weekend storm to come up the coast. The GFS OP took a step towards that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Really think the fat lady is singing about any hope this weekend for snow. Too bad because it's going to be cold. The ocean storm and the high are just not going to let it happen. Oh well, hopefully something happens next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Really think the fat lady is singing about any hope this weekend for snow. Too bad because it's going to be cold. The ocean storm and the high are just not going to let it happen. Oh well, hopefully something happens next week. You realize it's only Monday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Really think the fat lady is singing about any hope this weekend for snow. Too bad because it's going to be cold. The ocean storm and the high are just not going to let it happen. Oh well, hopefully something happens next week. Hold your horses. Plenty of time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Lets start talking about the weekend in the thread Walt Started 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Big shift south on the CMC for the weekend. This could be painful. Still time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You realize it's only Monday Not bad that the models have a storm missing us to the south that's 6 days away. North trend happens often. We have a decent chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You realize it's only Monday I do but I just don't think it's going to happen. Both Euro and GFS also have the storm suppressed south. It's early but I think we may have to wait for next week. I hope things change because I have a lousy 3 inches so far this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Follow ensembles outside day 3. Not a bad spot to be 5 days out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1984-85 vrs 2021-22...monthly average temp...2021-22 snowfall is close to what 1984-85 had on this date...it ended up with 25" for the season...Feb warmed the second half of 85 and March was mild...will it happen again??? year.....Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan... 1984...61.8...47.3...43.8...28.8 2021...62.0...46.2...43.8...??? looks cold so far... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 48 minutes ago, eduggs said: Big shift south on the CMC for the weekend. This could be painful. Still time though. We may have to wait until after 1/18 for something. The pattern will still be favorable at that point through about 1/25. I think after 1/25 things may become hostile with a +NAO and a tanking -PNA….. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We may have to wait until after 1/18 for something. The pattern will still be favorable at that point through about 1/25. I think after 1/25 things may become hostile with a +NAO and a tanking -PNA….. Can we get through this favorable period first before posting doomsday posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Can we get through this favorable period first before posting doomsday posts. That’s not a doomsday post. I just said we are in a very favorable snowstorm pattern before then. There is a window. You don’t like if anyone mentions that there may be a time frame with a beginning and end to a good pattern 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Day 5 on the Euro is sad. Such a potent looking wave but it will be a struggle to get it close enough to us with that suppressive Atlantic height field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, eduggs said: Day 5 on the Euro is sad. Such a potent looking wave but it will be a struggle to get it close enough to us with that suppressive Atlantic height field. I know that things can change, but we probably need to face reality and lay low for a week until the pattern matures some and then we can come back and track more legit threats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I hate suppression more than I do cutters. At least with a cutter you may be able to get something on the front end or back end depending on setup. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 The enthusiasm on this subforum just collapsed. Personally my pessimism is at a high for the season. Locally we are approaching a year since the last significant snow event. The spread in the ensembles offers some hope, but the run to run and intermodel continuity in the medium range is disheartening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, Tatamy said: As shown above the models do not have a handle on what will be happening next weekend. These are the 12z outputs from the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Can we get through this favorable period first before posting doomsday posts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 To each their own, but I feel exactly how I felt yesterday TBH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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