eduggs Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On the 18z GFS, there is a little piece of energy that escapes the stagnant cutoff off Baja CA and slowly slides east and is near the TX panhandle on day 3. This shortwave and little packet of vorticity makes it just far enough east to be on the downstream side of an approaching shortwave in the northern stream, allowing it to phase and help initiate a negative tilt to the trof. It's a pretty spectacular progression. But it also seems like if this piece of energy is late or something else is off slightly, the trof is likely to end up too far SE. This was a fun run though! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Can we lock this in please Let it get a little further west first. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 52 minutes ago, Tatamy said: This would be a big wind producer as modeled. That would be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 55 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: January 2015 bust and 2/25/99 were two I clearly remember...both obviously much better evens for SNE. Early Jan 2017 (I think0 we had one which tracked basically from the Bahamas due north which most, including me poo pooed it 3-4 days out since rarely do systems originating in that spot ever impact us. I remember we recently had a tropical system that went from Bermuda to SNE...weird tracks lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Funny, 32 F used to be above normal for Jan in the 80s Most Jan averaged in the 20s back then Things are warmer now (1991-2020 base). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 No thread from myself this eve. will revisit either Thu or Sunday events in the morning. First up: Ice, at least I95 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, wdrag said: No thread from myself this eve. will revisit either Thu or Sunday events in the morning. First up: Ice, at least I95 west. First up ice and then possibly coldest temperatures in years and hopefully a storm to follow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 WWA moved a little more southeast. Down to 17 degrees here, 14 in Syosset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 There has been an increase in strength with the La Niña over the past month, enough to be considered a moderate La Niña at -1.0 Celsius on the ONI trimonthly scale. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL: This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why: Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms. There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past. Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Great post ^ Just wanted to add a supplemental visual example of the pattern advertised on overnight ensembles. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 27degs.(21/32) or -6>>>-8 nowadays. Month to date is 36.0[+1.4]. Should be 31.5[-2.5] by the 17th. Reached 35 yesterday. Today: 39-42, wind w. and breezy, cloudy, rain by 3pm, 22 by tomorrow AM. EURO has the Snow next Sunday. GFS has the cold, but is zippo till about the 20th. 32*(80%RH) here at 6am.{was 30 overnite} 34* at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Going to need to keep an eye on next weekend. Probably best to just keep paying attention from here on out TBH. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 No thread from myself on Sunday the 16th potential event. I don't think the 00z/9 EC op very close to the coast is the most probable outcome but respecting that this might yet be only I84, holding off. GGEM continues steady for a snow event. Will reevaluate for a thread at 8PM today or 6AM Monday. Looks like a nice winter pattern for the rest of January to possibly hold onto snow cover wherever its more than 3 inches deep this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 The GFS has a 28.30 low just off the coast on Friday. I know it means very little at this point but that is strong hurricane strength. Meanwhile other models show much weaker low pressure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 48 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Going to need to keep an eye on next weekend. Probably best to just keep paying attention from here on out TBH. Yeah, looks like a very active pattern on the EPS. This is one of the most dramatic December to January Pacific reversals that we have ever seen. The models are looking very Nino-like after one of the most extreme La Niña Decembers on record. Recent SOI drop 9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43 8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77 7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, looks like a very active pattern on the EPS. This is one of the most dramatic December to January Pacific reversals that we have ever seen. The models are looking very Nino-like after one of the most extreme La Niña Decembers on record. Recent SOI drop 9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43 8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77 7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97 Yeah, potentially the most dramatic. Looks like that translated to the most negative PNA on record in December. Impressive stuff going on this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 16 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, potentially the most dramatic. Looks like that translated to the most negative PNA on record in December. Impressive stuff going on this year. It will be interesting to see how long we can keep the MJO away from the Maritime Continent after the recent SST cooling in that region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and milder today. Some light rain is possible, with some freezing rain occurring north and west of New York City and Newark. High temperatures will likely reach upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 40° Newark: 41° Philadelphia: 44° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 39.5°; 15-Year: 40.5° Newark: 30-Year: 40.0°; 15-Year: 41.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.4°; 15-Year: 42.3° Arctic air will begin moving toward the region tomorrow. Tuesday will be the coldest day this winter so far. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see how long we can keep the MJO away from the Maritime Continent after the recent SST cooling in that region. The models are still insistent on IO convection firing at the end of the month. Guess we’ll have to wait and see if forcing really does move there or not….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The models are still insistent on IO convection firing at the end of the month. Guess we’ll have to wait and see if forcing really does move there or not….. I am very sorry for your loss. Yeah, the long range models have been pretty insistent in the IO convection firing near the warm pool south of India by February. MJO phases 2 and 3 can be good for us during a La Niña in February. But convection shifting closer to phase 4 would allow the +PNA ridge to pull back close to the Aleutians. So it will be interesting to see what the models come up with as we get closer to February. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see how long we can keep the MJO away from the Maritime Continent after the recent SST cooling in that region. Yeah, it's an interesting situation. I'm not really sure what happens beyond this point. It's going to be very interesting to monitor moving forward. You would think it would circle back there at some point just going by past events. However, does the current climate care about past events? So it's interesting to think about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 14 hours ago, snowman19 said: Thank you to you and everyone else. It was my Aunt, cancer, she had been fighting it for the last 17+ years, she first got diagnosed back in 2004, she finally lost her battle. At least she’s at peace now. Just an ugly, horrible disease. My hope is that one day they find a cure…. My condolences. She fought long and hard 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Sorry for your loss snowman. Just remember that she's in a better place. Free from that terrible disease now. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Sorry for your loss snowman Cancer is ruthless Lost my dad in 2012 to pancreatic cancer at 52 years old. 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Sorry snowman. That really sucks man. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, looks like a very active pattern on the EPS. This is one of the most dramatic December to January Pacific reversals that we have ever seen. The models are looking very Nino-like after one of the most extreme La Niña Decembers on record. Recent SOI drop 9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43 8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77 7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97 Like a 14/15 flip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 36* here with a light drizzle falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 12z GFS still insistent with that hurricane intense like low off the east coast on Friday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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