January 2022

[romba]

1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Snow maps please.

we never learn

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Consistent with the pattern, odds are the track of this is either good for snow or again further south and east.

WX/PT

The pattern should get better with the PNA spike.

[bluewave]

The Euro is back to being stronger with the Arctic outbreak next week.

12z January 11th

 

[EasternLI]

Longer term GEFS and EPS look good. There should be more chances this month. Here's the 12z eps 10-15 this is the 5 day mean. 

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Longer term GEFS and EPS look good. There should be more chances this month. Here's the 12z eps 10-15 this is the 5 day mean. 

That's a really nice look.  A look for a big snowstorm but we know it's not that easy.

[Allsnow]

Something will work out this month for us. It’s nice to finally be tracking stuff after months of looking at the long range 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's a really nice look.  A look for a big snowstorm but we know it's not that easy.

Its not bad. Reminiscent of 13/14

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Its not bad. Reminiscent of 13/14

That winter was a good  one

[LoboLeader1]

“Odds are against snow for New York City to Washington, D.C., on southward,” Rayno said.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/potential-for-another-snowstorm-to-hit-midwest-northeast/1119137

 

[mikem81]

1 hour ago, LoboLeader1 said:

“Odds are against snow for New York City to Washington, D.C., on southward,” Rayno said.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/potential-for-another-snowstorm-to-hit-midwest-northeast/1119137

 

Not sure what he is looking it... seems that OTS is more of a concern

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Not sure what he is looking it... seems that OTS is more of a concern

It is

[MJO812]

Holy PNA in the long range

 

There also might be a threat of a big storm mid month but that's too far out to talk about it..

[donsutherland1]

A snowstorm passed south of much of the region today. In New York City and Newark and northward, the clouds hung low and the wind picked up. But the dry air aloft squelched any falling snowflakes before they reached the ground. A spectacular sunset ended the daylight hours as the sun moved west of the retreating cloud deck before it slipped below the horizon.

Meanwhile, southern New Jersey southward to central Virginia picked up a moderate to significant snowfall. In Atlantic City, Baltimore, and Washington, DC, visibility was reduced to a quarter mile or less at times. Some locations in Maryland and Virginia experienced thunder that accompanied the heavily falling snow.

Snowfall amounts through 4 pm included:

Atlantic City: 9.5" (old record: 2.8", 2014)--through 1 pm
Baltimore: 6.8" (old record: 1.6", 1988)
Islip: Trace
Philadelphia: 0.5"
Richmond: 2.0"
Sterling: VA: 3.9" (old record: 0.9", 1989)
Washington, DC: 6.7" (old record: 2.4", 1988)

The last time Washington, DC picked up 6" or more snow while not even a trace was recorded in Central Park or Newark was March 16-17, 2014 when Washington received 7.2" of snow.

The last time Atlantic City received 10" or more snow, as appears extremely likely given the amount at 1 pm, while no snow was reported in New York City or Newark was February 24, 1989 when Atlantic City was buried by 12.3" of snow.

The snowstorm also set a record for highest snowfall the day after a 60° or above high temperature in Atlantic City. The previous record of 8.1" was set on February 17, 1967 following a 60° high temperature on the preceding day.

In the wake of the storm, it will be sunny, blustery and cold. The high temperature will rise no higher than the middle or upper 30s across most of the region. Milder air will return on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front.

January has commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the overall tendency toward cooler weather will occur. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly could be near or even somewhat below normal.

Late in the first week of January, the PNA could go positive. As that happens, the prospects for measurable snowfall could increase throughout the region. Since 1990, 66% of days with 1" or more snow in New York City occurred when the PNA was positive. In addition, 81% of days with 4" or more snow occurred when the PNA was positive.

Temperatures are now on a general path toward below seasonal figures. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada through this week. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. Arctic air could reach the Middle Atlantic region during the second week of January. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe.    

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +1.09 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.484 today.

On January 1 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.064 (RMM). The December 31-adjusted amplitude was 2.042 (RMM).

 

[BucksCO_PA]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

 

The last time Washington, DC picked up 6" or more snow while not even a trace was recorded in Central Park or Newark was March 16-17, 2014 when Washington received 7.2" of snow.

DCA had over 10" during a Jan 2019 storm while Newark & Central Park recorded 0.1" & a T respectively. Technically not a shutout however about as close as you can get.

Significant snow falls immediately following 60 degree days should be most common during late winter & early spring for our region. To have an event of this magnitude in early Jan following a top 10 warm Dec and the preceeding 5 days averaging 14-16 degrees above normal is beyond remarkable. 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

DCA had over 10" during a Jan 2019 storm while Newark & Central Park recorded 0.1" & a T respectively. Technically not a shutout however about as close as you can get.

Significant snow falls immediately following 60 degree days should be most common during late winter & early spring for our region. To have an event of this magnitude in early Jan following a top 10 warm Dec and the preceeding 5 days averaging 14-16 degrees above normal is beyond remarkable. 

Yes. That’s correct.

[Rjay]

23 degrees with a north wind gusting over 30 mph.  

[ForestHillWx]

19/5 right now. Coldest of the season. 

[LoboLeader1]

15* here as of 5:30 this AM.

[MJO812]

21 here in Brooklyn 

[Rtd208]

Cold morning out there. 

Current temp 19

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny, breezy and cold. High temperatures will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 33°

Newark: 35°

Philadelphia: 34°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.1°; 15-Year: 41.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 40.6°; 15-Year: 41.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.9°; 15-Year: 42.9°

Another system could bring snow to parts of the region on Friday.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A snowstorm passed south of much of the region today. In New York City and Newark and northward, the clouds hung low and the wind picked up. But the dry air aloft squelched any falling snowflakes before they reached the ground. A spectacular sunset ended the daylight hours as the sun moved west of the retreating cloud deck before it slipped below the horizon.

Meanwhile, southern New Jersey southward to central Virginia picked up a moderate to significant snowfall. In Atlantic City, Baltimore, and Washington, DC, visibility was reduced to a quarter mile or less at times. Some locations in Maryland and Virginia experienced thunder that accompanied the heavily falling snow.

Snowfall amounts through 4 pm included:

Atlantic City: 9.5" (old record: 2.8", 2014)--through 1 pm
Baltimore: 6.8" (old record: 1.6", 1988)
Islip: Trace
Philadelphia: 0.5"
Richmond: 2.0"
Sterling: VA: 3.9" (old record: 0.9", 1989)
Washington, DC: 6.7" (old record: 2.4", 1988)

The last time Washington, DC picked up 6" or more snow while not even a trace was recorded in Central Park or Newark was March 16-17, 2014 when Washington received 7.2" of snow.

The last time Atlantic City received 10" or more snow, as appears extremely likely given the amount at 1 pm, while no snow was reported in New York City or Newark was February 24, 1989 when Atlantic City was buried by 12.3" of snow.

The snowstorm also set a record for highest snowfall the day after a 60° or above high temperature in Atlantic City. The previous record of 8.1" was set on February 17, 1967 following a 60° high temperature on the preceding day.

In the wake of the storm, it will be sunny, blustery and cold. The high temperature will rise no higher than the middle or upper 30s across most of the region. Milder air will return on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front.

January has commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). This time around, the average will be warmer, but the overall tendency toward cooler weather will occur. By mid-month, New York City's temperature anomaly could be near or even somewhat below normal.

Late in the first week of January, the PNA could go positive. As that happens, the prospects for measurable snowfall could increase throughout the region. Since 1990, 66% of days with 1" or more snow in New York City occurred when the PNA was positive. In addition, 81% of days with 4" or more snow occurred when the PNA was positive.

Temperatures are now on a general path toward below seasonal figures. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada through this week. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. Arctic air could reach the Middle Atlantic region during the second week of January. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe.    

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +1.09 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.484 today.

On January 1 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.064 (RMM). The December 31-adjusted amplitude was 2.042 (RMM).

 

Wasn't March 2014 supposed to be snowy and somehow the storms all ended up suppressed (very unusual in a spring month)?

How did DC do in February 1989 and December 1989, Don?  Those were our two biggest busts in the 80s when 6-8" was predicted and we got virga in the former and rain in the latter.

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wasn't March 2014 supposed to be snowy and somehow the storms all ended up suppressed (very unusual in a spring month)?

How did DC do in February 1989 and December 1989, Don?  Those were our two biggest busts in the 80s when 6-8" was predicted and we got virga in the former and rain in the latter.

 

The tpv sat over Maine that month which suppressed everything south. It was a very cold and dry month 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

The tpv sat over Maine that month which suppressed everything south. It was a very cold and dry month 

We could've broken some snowfall records. I remember one of those storms was forecast to give us a foot of snow within about 12 hours of start time.....I think we got an inch or two lol.

 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We could've broken some snowfall records. I remember one of those storms was forecast to give us a foot of snow within about 12 hours of start time.....I think we got an inch or two lol.

 

Yeah. DCA ended up with 7-8 

[dmillz25]

Down to 17 here. Coldest of the year

[bluewave]

That forecast Arctic shot for early next week looks like it will be colder than anything NYC has seen in the last 2 winters. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
2021	14	0
2020	14	0
2019	2	0
2018	5	0
2017	9	0
2016	-1	0
2015	2	0
2014	4	0
2013	11	0
2012	13	0
2011	6	0
2010	13	0

 

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That forecast Arctic shot for early next weeks looks like it will be colder than anything NYC has seen in the last 2 winters. So this could be the first single digits for NYC in 3 years. The Euro continues with impressive cold for a few days. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
2021	14	0
2020	14	0
2019	2	0
2018	5	0
2017	9	0
2016	-1	0
2015	2	0
2014	4	0
2013	11	0
2012	13	0
2011	6	0
2010	13	0

 

 

It might be colder if we get snow pack.

[MJO812]

Cold pattern taking shape on the gfs

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  31degs.(25/36) or -2>>>-4 nowadays.

Reached 39 last midnight and 23 this midnight.       Just saw flurries around 1:30pm yesterday, no white anywhere.

20*(55%RH) here at 6am.     30* at Noon.      37* at 3:30pm.        34* at 6pm.

Today:  Rising steadily from 20 this AM to 36 tomorrow AM,  m. clear then cloudy late, wind n. to sw.   4" Thurs. night?