MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Not a bad pattern shaping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, wdrag said: No thread on Friday but GEFS-EPS ensembles have decent interior snowfall for 96+ hours away. Euro and GGEM continue steady for the event and 06z GFS working its way west. Waiting on results for today before looking ahead. Thanks Walt. Interesting to see both the EURO and CMC show 4 to 10 inch accumulations in the tri state despite the low essentially riding the coast into LI. Even with the track the majority of the Tri state stays snow on both models. I think that last storm to produce that much snow with that type of coastal running track was December 30 2000 (just in track not intensity or speed). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Walt. Interesting to see both the EURO and CMC show 4 to 10 inch accumulations in the tri state despite the low essentially riding the coast into LI. Even with the track the majority of the Tri state stays snow on both models. I think that last storm to produce that much snow with that type of coastal running track was December 30 2000 (just in track not intensity or speed). Feb 2021 big snowstorm had a low really tucked in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Feb 2021 big snowstorm had a low really tucked in Yup. Can happen as the models depicted. I chose Dec. 2000 given the progressive nature of the system, transfer from inland primary and ultimate track over eastern LI. Of course we could flip to rain or more likely dry slot, but I would gladly take 2 to 4 on the front end. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The 6z EPS is really tucked in. With no -NAO block and a SE ridge, the risk here is an inland runner IMO, could be wrong, but I think that’s the risk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The 6z EPS is really tucked in. With no -NAO block and a SE ridge, the risk here is an inland runner IMO, could be wrong, but I think that’s the risk Quite possible but the euro and eps have a tendency of overamping storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Walt. Interesting to see both the EURO and CMC show 4 to 10 inch accumulations in the tri state despite the low essentially riding the coast into LI. Even with the track the majority of the Tri state stays snow on both models. I think that last storm to produce that much snow with that type of coastal running track was December 30 2000 (just in track not intensity or speed). For all the snow we had last year, I think just one was all snow at the coast. The rest all had mixing in some part of it. If we have cold air going into the storm and the snow shield is heavy and not shredded we can pile it up fast before any changeover. The Dec storm last winter was something of a disappointment here since the snow shield went shredded and allowed the warm air to take over sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The 6z EPS is really tucked in. With no -NAO block and a SE ridge, the risk here is an inland runner IMO, could be wrong, but I think that’s the risk Its not especially common to have an inland running Miller B...we usually either straight up fail because it redevelops at too far north a latitude or goes OTS....there are a few instances of classic Miller Bs which went over top of us or just west but its not a very long list. They've tended to occur when the western ridge is on or off the W Coast vs over the Rockies. What MAY happen here is this simply does not become a true Miller B and the primary goes way into OH/PA.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 12z cmc more progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: The 6z EPS is really tucked in. With no -NAO block and a SE ridge, the risk here is an inland runner IMO, could be wrong, but I think that’s the risk Progressive flow counteracts that risk. A whiff is much more probable imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Progressive flow counteracts that risk. Nice all snow event thursday night into friday morning on the 12z GGEM run that just came out. Let's hope that's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Cmc looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Last 3 runs of the CMC, trending more progressive/off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Progressive flow counteracts that risk. A whiff is much more probable imo Maybe, the ridge out west is very shallow and not particularly tall and amplified...but the shortwave drops in fairly far west in ID/MT/WY that despite that it has the time to still sharpen...as usual without the -NAO and a stout west ridge there are small differences which will impact this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Not a bad pattern shaping up close enough too bad IMO - weird might be a better word 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Not a bad pattern shaping up MJO looks to stay around 7 to 8 occasionally so should be a back and forth pattern. Potential for snows will exist through mid Jan probably the 20th. I still think late late and Feb are toast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: MJO looks to stay around 7 to 8 occasionally so should be a back and forth pattern. Potential for snows will exist through mid Jan probably the 20th. I still think late late and Feb are toast. this winter is going too have uneven and unusual snowfall totals in the northeast and mid atlantic we are going in that direction already,,,,,, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Ukie looks way flatter for Friday, hard to tell how it progressed on the 24 hr panels though. Flatter/OTS seems to be the way that storm is trending with the GFS leading the way, lots of time for changes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, romba said: Ukie looks way flatter for Friday, hard to tell how it progressed on the 24 hr panels though. Flatter/OTS seems to be the way that storm is trending with the GFS leading the way, lots of time for changes though. Gfs is an outlier to its ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Euro is southeast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Euro looks to be right over benchmark 992. That'll get it done for everyone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is southeast still way to early too even say we will see anything out of this system in the metro IMO... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Snow maps please. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Snow maps please. Both 12z GGEM and 12z Euro would be a nice moderate snow event for our area. With the concern of the progressive pattern, hopefully this won't keep trending south and end up being a miss for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The ski resorts in the Poconos may have to shut down, maybe for the season if there is no snow this upcoming week. Making snow for their base only to see it gone by a typical January thaw is not productive and become really expensive especially in this Covid climate too. The only saving grace was the nearly one inch of rain we got last week in the drought stricken areas of Eastern PA to allow further pumping of water out of the ground or out of the streams to replenish the artificial snow base. Lets hope this progressive pattern goes away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Ouch.. 12z was no bueno. Hopefully the GFS isn't leading the way with this event. Its been consistent on showing a non event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, snywx said: Ouch.. 12z was no bueno. Hopefully the GFS isn't leading the way with this event. Its been consistent on showing a non event. Look at the ensembles. They are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Consistent with the pattern, odds are the track of this is either good for snow or again further south and east. WX/PT 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The 500 mb pattern with the ridge bridge near Alaska to Greenland can work for us with the right storm track. We also have another +PNA spike over the Rockies. So this may be our best shot of the season so far if things work out. While it’s not a perfect match, the Euro 500 mb pattern on Friday almost has a Feb 14 type look. Hopefully, we can put something together. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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