MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Feb 2010 flashbacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 It's definitely still trending north but is it too late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Feb 2010 flashbacks No monster block so this could keep ticking north. Getting flashbacks of some of those 13-15 storms that trended last minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 fantasyland special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: fantasyland special 42 hours out is fantasy ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: 42 hours out is fantasy ? Once I hear Mr. Drag say this is real I will be a believer....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 0Z GFS Friday is a miss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Cmc and Ukie are south for Monday . Tomorrow will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc and Ukie are south for Monday . Tomorrow will be very interesting. Canadian definitely came north from 12Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, mob1 said: Canadian definitely came north from 12Z Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc and Ukie are south for Monday . Tomorrow will be very interesting. The Ukie is out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: The Ukie is out? Yes on the French site but the graphics suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, mob1 said: Canadian definitely came north from 12Z The north ticks continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's definitely still trending north but is it too late? Might not be for a few inches. Right now big changes are needed in a short time for more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, mattinpa said: Might not be for a few inches. Right now big changes are needed in a short time for more than that. If the past few years are any indication then this system will keep ticking NW till it begins. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I only counted 3 out of 30 GEFS members that were good hits for NYC. And the GEFS are by far the most favorable ensemble for snow. But then again the ensemble clusters tend to shift with the operational model in the short term. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Canadian is all aboard for Fridays potential 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Interesting. If this S/W can really amp and trend north it would be against the sheared/progressive trend this season but something has to break it I guess. I’m still definitely not on the get hopes up train but if 6z/12z continue the trend, might really happen. For SE NJ I’d definitely be paying attention. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Ukie is a nice hit for Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Picked up 1.16" of rain for the day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Interesting. If this S/W can really amp and trend north it would be against the sheared/progressive trend this season but something has to break it I guess. I’m still definitely not on the get hopes up train but if 6z/12z continue the trend, might really happen. For SE NJ I’d definitely be paying attention. I agree with everything in this post. Would be great to see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 12/31/2021 at 7:25 PM, EasternLI said: Scandinavian/NAO blocking seems to have dominated. Some similarities with a standard la Niña pattern in the Pacific. Strange year really. Basically a -NAO la Niña. Like 2010-11? why cant more winters be like that? what if that was actually the base state of the atmosphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 12/31/2021 at 7:35 PM, bluewave said: A perfect Nov to Apr -NAO /-EPO pattern with a ridge near California. Maybe Walt can comment on what the long range forecasts looked like. I really got interested in longer range forecasting after reading Walt’s great AFD’s out of the Boston NWS office in the late 90s. Probably the greatest long range AFDs in NWS history. But I still need to ask why this is so rare and what it would take to make this the base state for the atmosphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 12/31/2021 at 6:35 PM, NEG NAO said: 1916-17 0 0 0 0 T 14.5 5.8 12.2 11.7 6.5 0 0 50.7 1922-23 0 0 0 0 1.0 8.0 24.5 18.8 8.1 T 0 0 60.4 1947-48 0 0 0 0 T 30.2 15.3 13.6 4.7 0 0 0 63.8 1960-61 0 0 0 T 0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 0 0 54.7 1963-64 0 0 0 0 T 11.3 13.3 14.1 6.0 T 0 0 44.7 1995-96 0 0 0 0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 0 0 75.6 2013-14 0 0 0 0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 0 0 57.4 1916-17 was also a la nina ... funny a few of these are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 12/31/2021 at 6:40 PM, EasternLI said: Dateline forcing in 02-03. Hence the love affair with Modoki El Niño’s. Fortuitous little warm pool sitting right there that year. +PDO too. was that a wall to wall winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 A balmy 52 here as of 1:25 this AM, while temps are currently running in the low teens down in the Panhandle (Amarillo 10*) area of Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 0z Euro takes Friday's storm right over JFK. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: If the past few years are any indication then this system will keep ticking NW till it begins. The Monday event is “ticking” NW today because of the SE ridge press and lack of a -NAO block….this is why the risk for Friday is an inland runner, I think that event most likely ends up further west than what the Euro and the other models are showing right now as we get closer to that event. Models underestimating the SE ridge until we get right up to the event. Once that shortwave amps for Friday’s event, there’s no -NAO block to force secondary redevelopment off shore or tame the SE ridge. If there’s any thunderstorm blowups over the SE as the storm develops, the latent heat release aloft from the t-storms pumps the SE ridge even more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 00z EPS mid month 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: The Monday event is “ticking” NW today because of the SE ridge press and lack of a -NAO block….this is why the risk for Friday is an inland runner, I think that event most likely ends up further west than what the Euro and the other models are showing right now as we get closer to that event. Models underestimating the SE ridge until we get right up to the event. Once that shortwave amps for Friday’s event, there’s no -NAO block to force secondary redevelopment off shore or tame the SE ridge. If there’s any thunderstorm blowups over the SE as the storm develops, the latent heat release aloft from the t-storms pumps the SE ridge even more You need to at least admit that your bashing of the gfs was wrong with this system….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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