wdrag Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 No thread for Monday. The sounding provided by eduggs is helpful to illustrate a potential GFS problem. Nevertheless, keeping an eye upon. 18z EC is a touch north as is GGEM (both shown below). However NDFD (NWS forecast digital database) is basically nil, as is the prob for >1" (shown below). Will rereview at 7AM Sunday but no thread, at least for now. 22z/1 WPC chance of >1" of snow continues receding southward Monday. I know a lot of folks are talking big hit in mid Atlantic but this does not imply that at all. It defies GFS, GGEM and EC. So unless it's mixed precip and or melting at 33-34F, it seems that some of these stronger hitting models are going to be too heavy on snow, or the WPC ensemble is far far too conservative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I live near Patriots place, so you guys are in a better spot than I am for this threat based on current model guidance, but even in my area I am keeping in eye on a last minute NW trend. It has already been moving north the last few runs on most guidance, enough to make this go from sliding harmlessly out to sea by like 200 miles to a very near miss (50 miles or so). The blocking is starting to weaken some and we are in a raging La Niña, plenty of room for this one to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Eps ticked north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Eps mean of a inch now to nyc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 15z vs 21z sref 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 15z vs 21z sref Can't deny the trend. We may be able to will our way to a couple inches in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 You can see already thru 24 hours the NAM is coming NW but that is not saying much since it basically was nowhere near any other model so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 31 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 15z vs 21z sref Lol that's ridiculous 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 NAM is way more amped through 25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 closer but no cigar. southern nj gets brushed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Mid Atlantic special. Not enough for NJ and NYC but a big shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Lol a few more of those and we are good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 It's come NW for the past 4 runs. Including this one. Which started basically as nothing 4 runs ago. So that's interesting alone. Better wave spacing each time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Can this continue to come north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Can this continue to come north? Yes if the confluence lessens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 See if the gfs comes north again. Biggest runs of the season!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That’s the upgraded GFS hi res- how’s it performed this season? The regular GFS is upgraded already to the FV3, wonder why the hi res/NAM hasn’t been moved over yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is deceiving at best.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Heavy rain falling here. Picked up 0.65" of rain so far today. Temp 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 absolutely pouring outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Finally pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 58 minutes ago, Rjay said: Lol Minor differences lol It does give the GFS legitimacy though even if it still stays south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Icon came north, gfs looks more amped at 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: It's coming!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 wow, this is much more robust. closed contour at 500mb as well as higher heights over NJ 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 GFS has gone from giving D.C. little if any snow earlier today, now were talking double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: It's coming!!! You may be in a good spot with this one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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