Tatamy Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wow gfs gets a few inches up this way now and blasts areas further south Road trip to Cape May tomorrow night? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, forkyfork said: if 0z bumps north again it's time to get interested It's a long shot but these north ticks have continued up until storm day in the past which led to us mixing a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 RGEM further north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Gefs also bumped north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 On the 18z GEFS two members bring significant snows as far north as NYC while an additional one reaches LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs also bumped north The mean brings 9” to Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Gfs looks great for next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs looks great for next weekend Not even that far away. About 5 days til start time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 I'll believe it when I see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I'll believe it when I see it Pattern is changing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Blend that gfs with today's European for the 7th, that wouldn't be half bad for most. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 New Year’s Day at the New York Botanical Garden (following NYC’s 3rd warmest December): 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I'll believe it when I see it We’ve seen these things before, and wouldn’t shock me if that’s the case here. Nearly 30” in South central VA through at pure 10:1 though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The GFS was garbage for early Dec snowstorm I wouldnt buy into that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: The GFS was garbage for early Dec snowstorm I wouldnt buy into that That's why I'm not getting my hopes up. But every once in a while even the crappiest model gets something right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: The GFS was garbage for early Dec snowstorm I wouldnt buy into that How many times the euro has busted with a coastal ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2022 has begun with more unseasonable warmth. But a turn toward colder weather lies ahead in the medium-range. After an warm start tomorrow, temperatures will tumble late in the day. In the South, more near record and record heat prevailed for a final day of what has been an extraordinary month-long period of exceptional warmth. Preliminary records included: Birmingham: 80° (old record: 78°, 1952) Brownsville: 89° (old record: 83°, 1955 and 1989) Corpus Christi: 92° (old record: 84°, 2006) ***Tied January Record*** Galveston: 81° (old record: 76°, 1934) ***New January Record*** Houston: 85° (old record: 81°, 1917 and 2006) ***New January Record*** Jackson: 85° (old record: 81°, 1952) ***Tied January Record*** Mobile: 79° (tied record set in 1975) Montgomery, AL: 83° (old record: 79°, 1952) ***Tied January Record*** New Orleans: 82° (old record: 81°, 2006) January has commenced with an AO-/PNA- pattern. That typically favors somewhat cooler than normal readings in the East. For NYC, the January 1-10, 1991-2020 mean temperature for such cases was 33.5° (normal: 34.8°). Late in the first week of January, the PNA could go positive. As that happens, the prospects for measurable snowfall could increase. Since 1990, 66% of days with 1" or more snow in New York City occurred when the PNA was positive. In addition, 81% of days with 4" or more snow occurred when the PNA was positive. The latest guidance suggests that temperatures could head toward seasonal levels and then below seasonal levels as the first week of January progresses. The coldest air will likely remain confined to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and western and central Canada during that time. Afterward, the cold could press farther south into at least the northern Middle Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions. The colder pattern could last for two or perhaps three weeks before it breaks down. Thus, it could begin to break down sometime in the January 15-20 timeframe. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +3.82 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.338 today. On December 30 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.889 (RMM). The December 29-adjusted amplitude was 2.049 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: How many times the euro has busted with a coastal ? Since the recent upgrade its exhibited less of the overamped bias from 90-120 it had been having as well as the suppressed bias it was having inside 72 but the sample size is small 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 wow, this is an amazing look. strong vort diving S of the region with great jet support 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Monday's system just got more interesting with the significant amplified shift from the GEFS a couple more ticks like this and we're in business 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: The GFS was garbage for early Dec snowstorm I wouldnt buy into that Concerning the 6/7th time period, It's not just the 18z GFS showing a storm signal. The 12z Euro, Ukie, and ICON(FWIW) all showed a possible significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Gfs had a storm for next weekend since December 24 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: wow, this is an amazing look. strong vort diving S of the region with great jet support You were spot on with the upcoming pattern change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Wow gfs gets a few inches up this way now and blasts areas further south Something looks wrong with the GFS's QPF algorithm. There's a pronounced dry layer around 700mb on the sounding throughout NJ and EPA etc. on Monday morning. Dewpoints are like -20 to -30C. And at the same time, the GFS is printing out QPF. That's virga. No way snow is reaching the ground through that dry air if the sounding is right. Granted, H5 looks pretty decent for maybe SNJ to get clipped, but the GFS looks way off with QPF here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: Something looks wrong with the GFS's QPF algorithm. There's a pronounced dry layer on the sounding throughout NJ and EPA etc. on Monday morning. Dewpoints are like -20 to -30C. And at the same time, the GFS is printing out QPF. That's virga. No way snow is reaching the ground through that dry air if the sounding is right. Granted, H5 looks pretty decent for maybe SNJ to get clipped, but the GFS looks way off with QPF here. The GFS is awful. What it shows on Monday for our area is obviously virga. I don’t know why this terrible model is even being entertained given its pathetic performance so far this winter and it has zero support, extreme outlier status for Monday….. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: The GFS is awful. What it shows on Monday for our area is obviously virga. I don’t know why this terrible model is even being entertained given its pathetic performance so far this winter and it has zero support, extreme outlier status for Monday….. It's possible the problem is mostly confined to the QPF parameter. It could be nailing the synoptics but just not properly accounting for dry air interaction with precipitation. I am a little intrigued by its H5 depiction. A closed low at H5 gets pretty far north this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 PHL sounding at 15UTC Monday morning when the GFS shows moderate snow. If this sounding is reliable it would not be snowing at this location. That's a virga storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Euro bump north. Big hit for the Delmarva 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro bump north. Big hit for the Delmarva Inching closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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