NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is starting to latch on to the euro storm what makes you think there will even be a storm at 12Z on the Euro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: what makes you think there will even be a storm at 12Z on the Euro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Jan 7-8: Euro likes it best but when looking at last 4 cycles, varying latitude and certainly too early for me to highlight-thread, given the less than reliable wintry modeling beyond 3 days. WPC 10z/31 ensemble probs less than 30% for 3" in our I84 area D7; and WPC ensemble probs for 1" NC to s NJ for this Sunday night are very low except NC Mountains. I think we need something in the southern stream out of Texas to NC to give me some hope (850 low developing to our south). Models can inspire me..maybe that will happen soon? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: what makes you think there will even be a storm at 12Z on the Euro ? This wave has been on the models for two plus days now. It will be there at 12z, though that doesn't mean it will show snow. Easy to be negative right now, I dont blame you, but this is probably the best threat if the year so far imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Some of the guidance is showing that an Alaskan Ridge regime could develop for a time in coming weeks. That typically affords more opportunity for cold. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL085592 The PNA could also go positive late in the first week of January. So, January is looking better than December has been. It might not be severely cold or extremely snowy, but it should be colder and snowier than this December has been. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 At this point looks like the mid Atlantic around Virginia, Delaware could get some decent snows on Monday. Long Island may get brushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Cmc got closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc got closer Goes to show how much luck plays a part in snowfall. Who would have thought in a moderate la Nina that some areas to the south will end up with above average snowfall to date while we wait for the first inch plus storm. That's usually an El nino issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Goes to show how much luck plays a part in snowfall. Who would have thought in a moderate la Nina that some areas to the south will end up with above average snowfall to date while we wait for the first inch plus storm. That's usually an El nino issue. That happens on occasion in La Ninas due to progressiveness of the pattern. DCA/BWI in general do way worse than NYC in La Nina winters but they have had some decent snow events and they are almost always a product of either fast/progressive Pac flow or northern stream shunting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Some of the guidance is showing that an Alaskan Ridge regime could develop for a time in coming weeks. That typically affords more opportunity for cold. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL085592 The PNA could also go positive late in the first week of January. So, January is looking better than December has been. It might not be severely cold or extremely snowy, but it should be colder and snowier than this December has been. Snowman is going to flip when he reads this…everyone get ready for numerous tweets about how it won’t last long 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 I made a point about this similarities in this pattern, and 10 days before Jan 25, 2000 It will probably shift west, but not as cold We are coming out of -NAO-storm ^ It was a pretty good -NAO, with 3 cold-waves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 42 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Goes to show how much luck plays a part in snowfall. Who would have thought in a moderate la Nina that some areas to the south will end up with above average snowfall to date while we wait for the first inch plus storm. That's usually an El nino issue. The STJ may be getting a Nino-like boost with the current WWB near the dateline. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Snowman is going to flip when he reads this…everyone get ready for numerous tweets about how it won’t last long Realistically, if the latest guidance is taken at face value, it would last about two weeks or so. The Arctic Low pattern is shown redeveloping in late January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 36 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Snowman is going to flip when he reads this…everyone get ready for numerous tweets about how it won’t last long Or sun angle. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 59 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc got closer 12z Euro gets a little accumulating snow up to Cape May County NJ. Close to an inch for the southern part of the county. Looks like a longshot for us, but it's close enough that we still have to keep a close eye on it. We have a slight chance. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro gets a little accumulating snow up to Cape May County NJ. Close to an inch for the southern part of the county. Looks like a longshot for us, but it's close enough that we still have to keep a close eye on it. We have a slight chance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 I really like the idea of regimes. But I think it could use a little tweaking. It just feels like a bit of a misnomer calling this current regime a "arctic low". Which they are. I understand there's similarly. It just doesn't sound right to me looking at this IDK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Nice ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Cold is just 1 of the dots to be connected and your modeling the long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 We're going to get a real shot of cold this month if this is accurate. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Here's a storm chance after that passes IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Eps puts us in the freezer for the first half of the month 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Eps puts us in the freezer for the first half of the month 14-15th is ripe for something that run IMO. After that cold gets in here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 14-15th is ripe for something that run IMO. After that cold gets in here. Mjo going 7-8-1….hopefully we get gain some strength in p2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 34 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Here's a storm chance after that passes IMO That EPS forecast is starting to look like something from late January 2015. When I made my comment about losing a favorable Atlantic the other day, it was based on the ridge being much further west in the old EPS forecast. That kind of blocking over Western North America could produce a 6”+ snowstorm in NYC even with a very +AO vortex. Old run I commented on ridge further west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Mjo going 7-8-1….hopefully we get gain some strength in p2 We take this look. Now we're getting somewhere for day 5-10 mean. Finally looking much better this run. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: That EPS forecast is starting to look like something from late January 2015. When I made my comment about losing a favorable Atlantic the other day, it was based on the ridge being much further west in the old EPS forecast. That kind of blocking over Western North America could produce a 6”+ snowstorm in NYC even with a very +AO vortex. Old run I commented on ridge further west Yeah, that was a nice run this time. Verbatim has a low pressure off the coast on the 15th too. Can't ask for much more at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Now I know you are trolling As Allsnow was. But in all honestly, that pattern is temporary, enjoy it while it lasts and hope it produces 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Most dud winters have at least one storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: As Allsnow was. But in all honestly, that pattern is temporary, enjoy it while it lasts and hope it produces I do think it gets bad closer to February. but in Niña like this we usually get a 2-3 week window to get something . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now