EasternLI Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agreed. The window for “wintry” here IMO is mid-January. As far as the pipe dream that the MJO is going into phase 8….we’ve been hearing that the MJO is going to phase 8 since Halloween now, it’s time for certain people to give that wishcast up, just like the SSW that we’ve been hearing is coming since November and the very weak SPV for Dec, Jan…… Ok, not sure who's being referenced. I think there's been plenty of warnings of various factors in these threads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 The 18z NAM looks a lot more threatening for Monday than the previous runs. Significant changes. Southern shortwave is much sharper this run. That looks like it would produce a decent snowstorm in the mid-South through parts of the mid-Atlantic. We'd still probably need a little help to get snow to our region, but if this run is onto something real, it's something to watch for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, this run with the EPS was better with moving the MJO again. It get wishy-washy sometimes so need a few more runs. But it was nice to see anyway. The EPS VP anomalies as of the 0z showed more motion to the east. Starts out in phase 6 next week and progresses over to phase 7 during the 2nd week of January. So it’s no surprise there is so much volatility from run to run with the NEPAC pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The EPS VP anomalies as of the 0z showed more motion to the east. Starts out in phase 6 next week and progresses over to phase 7 during the 2nd week of January. So it’s no surprise there is so much volatility from run to run with the NEPAC pattern. Yes, that's true. It seemed to want to linger more near Indonesia on the 00z run though to me. So that gave me pause. I've seen that before. This run was moving it along a bit better again though. So we'll see if that continues for a few runs. Tricky situation with that warm pool and La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 The GEFS Control with it's perennial Coldest Day in History output. Jan. 30, this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Gfs ticked northwest with the storm on the 3rd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs ticked northwest with the storm on the 3rd The GFS is has a pretty wound up southern stream shortwave. It looks a lot like the NAM, just about 8 hours faster. That's gotta be a good hit for parts of the mid-Atlantic. Nice trend at 18z with the American guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 The RGEM is not nearly as sharp in the SE as the GFS/NAM, but it still managed to get a little backside snow to EPA, CNJ, NYC etc. Maybe the start of a trend? I find the RGEM much more believable with a more strung out look instead of the wound up look. Not sure if that's just pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Definitely a healthy looking vort at least. Close up the mid levels a bit more on that gfs run would have helped a lot. Wouldn't take a lot to see a better solution. Nothing major of course. Hey, at least it's something to look at for a change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Agreed. The window for “wintry” here IMO is mid-January. As far as the pipe dream that the MJO is going into phase 8….we’ve been hearing that the MJO is going to phase 8 since Halloween now, it’s time for certain people to give that wishcast up, just like the SSW that we’ve been hearing is coming since November and the very weak SPV for Dec, Jan……I like how negative you are and how positive other people are; I figure it helps novices like me to split the difference between the two, and the outcome will be there in the middle.. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 hour ago, eduggs said: The 18z NAM looks a lot more threatening for Monday than the previous runs. Significant changes. Southern shortwave is much sharper this run. That looks like it would produce a decent snowstorm in the mid-South through parts of the mid-Atlantic. We'd still probably need a little help to get snow to our region, but if this run is onto something real, it's something to watch for sure. 18Z GFS is moving precip further north into our area again 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 There is a chance the minimum temperature on New Year's Day will be higher than the minimum temperature we had the past Memorial Day for the Park. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Glad to see more people taking interest in the potential snow threat early Monday. Some of the models seem to be leaning toward what the GFS has been indicating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 18z euro shifted towards the gfs with slower vort and better ridge. Gets light snow into acy 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 overall, this event is certainly a "thread the needle" type storm, but things still look interesting given today's trend of a stronger, slower SS vort with less NS interaction. a GFS-like solution cannot be discarded at this juncture it looks like the American models are doing a decent job with this, as the ECMWF and RGEM took some steps towards the GFS/NAM. the 18z ECMWF made a nice shift towards a more favorable solution: of course, this remains rather unlikely, but I think it's worth looking to see if the 00z runs continue this trend 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 No thread from me on the Sunday night-Monday morning event/non event. Have seen all that is spoken of above from the past 4 hours (3PM onward). EPS/GEFS give an inch or less to entire NYC subforum. WPC midday issuance has 10-29% 3+" far se NJ. This plus the 18z/EC operational is dry here Sunday night-Monday morning which all guides me to wait til tomorrow mornings model adjustments for a thread, if any. Could be a period of snow or flurries, esp LI/s of I80 in NJ but so far no sign of an 850 low with the second wave so, myself, I need to withhold the love for much, if anything. It's possible this scenario will adjust north on the 00z or 12z/31 related cycles? I am picking up on some SREF ZR- in southern NYS (BGM area) with the transition to colder Sunday. So Chicago picked up its first snow of around 2" Dec 28-29, and now with a 60% chance of more than 6" on NYD. It' going forecast is 3-5". Can that eventually happen here this winter? Hope so. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 hours ago, eduggs said: The RGEM is not nearly as sharp in the SE as the GFS/NAM, but it still managed to get a little backside snow to EPA, CNJ, NYC etc. Maybe the start of a trend? I find the RGEM much more believable with a more strung out look instead of the wound up look. Not sure if that's just pessimism. mentioned on WABC tonight they are monitoring a possible snow event for early Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Glad to see more people taking interest in the potential snow threat early Monday. Some of the models seem to be leaning toward what the GFS has been indicating. yup Lee Goldberg said he is monitoring it as the chances are increasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, wdrag said: No thread from me on the Sunday night-Monday morning event/non event. Have seen all that is spoken of above from the past 4 hours (3PM onward). EPS/GEFS give an inch or less to entire NYC subforum. WPC midday issuance has 10-29% 3+" far se NJ. This plus the 18z/EC operational is dry here Sunday night-Monday morning which all guides me to wait til tomorrow mornings model adjustments for a thread, if any. Could be a period of snow or flurries, esp LI/s of I80 in NJ but so far no sign of an 850 low with the second wave so, myself, I need to withhold the love for much, if anything. It's possible this scenario will adjust north on the 00z or 12z/31 related cycles? I am picking up on some SREF ZR- in southern NYS (BGM area) with the transition to colder Sunday. So Chicago picked up its first snow of around 2" Dec 28-29, and now with a 60% chance of more than 6" on NYD. It' going forecast is 3-5". Can that eventually happen here this winter? Hope so. it's better to have it south of us at this point the trend has been for everything to shift north for years now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 NAM is weaker/south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 As others have said the southern S/W has to slow down and amp so the snow can reach far enough north. I wouldn't buy anything outside of 72hrs this winter so I guess that's a plus that it won't just snow in Richmond and the Delmarva, but the trend this "winter" so far has been very progressive, so that's a reason to think it won't happen. I guess keep an eye out but odds are against it. Latest NAM shows the problem-stays too positively tilted/progressive so whatever does form is shunted straight out to sea. That would be congrats Norfolk even. Would be fitting for this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 GFS lost the Monday event like the NAM. The southern shortwave is clearly a very sensitive feature. The wide ensemble spread supports this sensitivity too. Since the majority of guidance for several runs says we don't get any snow out of this, that is clearly the most likely outcome. But based on the individual ensemble members, we should probably expect something like one or two out of 10 operational runs to be hits or near misses. And maybe that's the approximate likelihood of getting some snow out of this in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 memphis TN gets 1-2 inches of snow on Sunday after being in the mid 70's for the past 3 days , we get zilcho. The epitome of this winter thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 where's snow88 aka metfan? lol 00z Euro looks good next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 hours ago, yoda said: where's snow88 aka metfan? lol 00z Euro looks good next weekend Sleeping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Gfs is starting to latch on to the euro storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 13 hours ago, bluewave said: The EPS VP anomalies as of the 0z showed more motion to the east. Starts out in phase 6 next week and progresses over to phase 7 during the 2nd week of January. So it’s no surprise there is so much volatility from run to run with the NEPAC pattern. Besides the MJO, the strength and coupling of the La Niña/-PDO, the SPV was another poorly forecasted factor going into this winter, we kept hearing that we would see a weak to very weak SPV for December and January, now we have anything but with no signs whatsoever of a SSW and signals that it may couple with the troposphere going into late month: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Besides the MJO, the strength and coupling of the La Niña/-PDO, the SPV was another poorly forecasted factor going into this winter, we kept hearing that we would see a weak to very weak SPV for December and January, now we have anything but with no signs whatsoever of a SSW and signals that it may couple with the troposphere going into late month: Pacific is going to improve according to the models. That should help the pattern . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 EPS with another decent run moving the MJO along on the 00z. Some signs of it making it's way back around to the warm pool area for later in the month. Will keep monitoring it. That would seem to make sense to me. Nice run again with the western ridging. Hopefully we can make something happen with that while we have it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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