January 2022

[StormchaserChuck!]

Jan 1981 was the biggest +PNA on record for DJFM(CPC)

 

[EasternLI]

  On 12/26/2021 at 9:57 PM, bluewave said:

 

 

 

 

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Yeah, that very warm water over there just keeps feeding the convection. So it's like it's holding it back almost. Pretty crazy actually. That's what it looks like keeps happening. 

[EastonSN+]

Love watching football in the snow IN SEATTLE.

Wild.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

  On 12/26/2021 at 9:44 PM, EasternLI said:

Super El Niño followed both of these years.... 2 years later. 

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The super super duper El Niño is most likely on the way. There’s just too much heat around to sustain La Niña (even though it’s wind based). If NYC were to ever see a 50”+ storm that’s how you get it done, with an atmospheric river flowing in to a nor’easter with a nice source airmass

[EasternLI]

  On 12/26/2021 at 10:06 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The super super duper El Niño is most likely on the way. There’s just too much heat around to sustain La Niña (even though it’s wind based). If NYC were to ever see a 50”+ storm that’s how you get it done, with an atmospheric river flowing in to a nor’easter with a nice source airmass

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Super duper could be this next one if this phase 7 business keeps going thats for sure. That's what's building up all of the subsurface heat right now. At high amplitude too.

[EasternLI]

  On 12/26/2021 at 10:33 PM, bluewave said:

The long range model runs have been underestimating the extent of the convection north of Australia for weeks now.

New run

Old run

 

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Yeah, it's almost like it's trapped between that and La Niña. Some of it moves on at times, but that base area just stays put. I think it's a testament to the amplitude of the MJO this year. The QBO argued for that. Because of cooling in the very upper troposphere. It's impressive. 

[EasternLI]

Gefs and eps are doing different things with that ridge after it gets cut off. Eps retrograding it. Gefs it's still meandering around just north. Found that difference interesting. 

[leo2000]

  On 12/26/2021 at 10:13 PM, EasternLI said:

Super duper could be this next one if this phase 7 business keeps going thats for sure. That's what's building up all of the subsurface heat right now. At high amplitude too.

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Yeah super duper El Nino means very very warm winter. 

[NEG NAO]

It is interesting what the GFS OP is trying to do on the last couple of runs -developing LP on the front coming through early next week and turning it into a rain to heavy snow scenario here - but this is probably going to go away in future runs

[HeadInTheClouds]

  On 12/27/2021 at 4:24 AM, NEG NAO said:

It is interesting what the GFS OP is trying to do on the last couple of runs -developing LP on the front coming through early next week and turning it into a rain to heavy snow scenario here - but this is probably going to go away in future runs

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CMC had a similar evolution at 12z although a little further west. 

[RippleEffect]

euro shows a nice one to two hours of snow even for the city tomorrow afternoon with temps in the mid 30's. probably comes in as sleet more likely and if it does come in as snow the temps will drop from dynamic cooling effect. a dusting is definitely possible

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Anyday now 

[Superstorm]

  On 12/27/2021 at 10:42 AM, MJO812 said:

Anyday now 

Almost there.


.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

  On 12/27/2021 at 2:06 AM, leo2000 said:

Yeah super duper El Nino means very very warm winter. 

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It does, but it also means amped up super moisture charged Miller A’s. Time some cold just right and you have January 16s record NYC snows. Tweak a few variables and that’s how you go for 50”. Chances are warmth will win before we ever see that however. 

[EasternLI]

  On 12/27/2021 at 11:15 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It does, but it also means amped up super moisture charged Miller A’s. Time some cold just right and you have January 16s record NYC snows. Tweak a few variables and that’s how you go for 50”. Chances are warmth will win before we ever see that however. 

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The greater concern, to me, in light of this potential. Is that a global temperature spike is known to be associated with such events. Something the planet could really do without IMO. 

[MJO812]

  On 12/27/2021 at 11:15 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It does, but it also means amped up super moisture charged Miller A’s. Time some cold just right and you have January 16s record NYC snows. Tweak a few variables and that’s how you go for 50”. Chances are warmth will win before we ever see that however. 

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I miss Miller A storms 

[thunderbolt]

  On 12/27/2021 at 10:42 AM, MJO812 said:

Anyday now 

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Here’s a question for you fellas what’s the Longest the MJO has ever hung around in a certain phase?

[MJO812]

  On 12/27/2021 at 11:44 AM, thunderbolt said:

Here’s a question for you fellas what’s the Longest the MJO has ever hung around in a certain phase?

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Bluewave would know this question. I believe it was a few weeks.

 

[EasternLI]

  On 12/27/2021 at 11:44 AM, thunderbolt said:

Here’s a question for you fellas what’s the Longest the MJO has ever hung around in a certain phase?

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I think we're looking at it right now TBH, at least back to 1975 during winter months. 

[EasternLI]

Would like to have @bluewave thoughts on this?

[EastonSN+]

  On 12/27/2021 at 4:24 AM, NEG NAO said:

It is interesting what the GFS OP is trying to do on the last couple of runs -developing LP on the front coming through early next week and turning it into a rain to heavy snow scenario here - but this is probably going to go away in future runs

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Imo the 6z GFS makes more sense, trailing waves are usually weaker and more suppressed. Hard to get a trailing wave to amp up like that.

[EastonSN+]

  On 12/27/2021 at 11:44 AM, thunderbolt said:

Here’s a question for you fellas what’s the Longest the MJO has ever hung around in a certain phase?

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Working in our favor. Phase 7 works well of us in January while IF it touches 8 we may be able to save February. 

That is best case scenario not a forecast.

[MJO812]

  On 12/27/2021 at 12:44 PM, EastonSN+ said:

Working in our favor. Phase 7 works well of us in January while IF it touches 8 we may be able to save February. 

That is best case scenario not a forecast.

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Hopefully it stalls out in 8 

[EastonSN+]

I do not have the EC ensembles past 240, however looks like a gradient patters sets up day 10 on GEFS with our area north of the gradient. The SE ridge would work in our favor battling suppression from the non stop Negative AO.

[MJO812]

Gefs 

[EastonSN+]

  On 12/27/2021 at 1:03 PM, MJO812 said:

Gefs 

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Do you have the picture that's shows phase 7 in January?

[EasternLI]

  On 12/27/2021 at 12:49 PM, EastonSN+ said:

I do not have the EC ensembles past 240, however looks like a gradient patters sets up day 10 on GEFS with our area north of the gradient. The SE ridge would work in our favor battling suppression from the non stop Negative AO.

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Gefs being more stubborn than eps with the western trough. But also more stubborn with higher heights in the arctic. This is 06z Gefs vs 00z eps for the same timeframe, which is the end of the eps run. So some differences noted here.

[EastonSN+]

  On 12/27/2021 at 1:06 PM, EasternLI said:

Gefs being more stubborn than eps with the western trough. But also more stubborn with higher heights in the arctic. This is 06z Gefs vs 00z eps for the same timeframe, which is the end of the eps run. So some differences noted here.

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That's funny. Both would work for us for different reasons.

TBH I would take the EPS as the negative AO is shredding Everything. Sure we would be at a cutter risk but would setup trailing wave potential.

GEFS could still work but more light event potential.

At some point we WILL snow. 

[EasternLI]

I'd be cautious of those RMM charts if I were you...