bluewave Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 3:13 PM, EasternLI said: This makes sense. I've noticed too they can be very good at rolling a pattern forward. As long as there isn't an emerging factor that could change the equation. The study I mentioned also stated that internal variability within a pattern was an issue. Expand Yeah, it’s a big challenge trying to figure out the week 3-4 forecast based on week 1-2. Analog roll forwards beyond week 2 can be very low skill. Older analogs from colder eras haven’t been working very well in our post 2010 warmer climate. There is also a small sample size issue since many patterns have unique features that don’t repeat in the same ways. Plus we have random events like wave breaks which analogs won’t work for. Maybe machine learning will be the next big leap forward in long range forecasting. I think that’s what the ECWMF is researching for improvement to the weeklies and seasonal forecasts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Big cutter on 12z gfs for the 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 4:15 PM, MJO812 said: Big cutter on 12z gfs for the 2nd Expand as we get closer the GFS agrees with the current pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 4:43 PM, NEG NAO said: as we get closer the GFS agrees with the current pattern Expand Yep and the gefs is further north Have to wait longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 4:56 PM, MJO812 said: Yep and the gefs is further north Have to wait longer Expand Ya, that's a possible long range snowstorm for folks in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 5:11 PM, WeatherFox said: Ya, that's a possible long range snowstorm for folks in Maine. Expand They get enough snow 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Models shouldn't go out past 150. It toys with people's emotions and they are erratic. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 5:16 PM, MJO812 said: Models shouldn't go out past 150. It toys with people's emotions and they are erratic. Expand Agree. When it's this far out there is no certainty to the forecast. It's just something to keep an eye on. We know that even short range forecasts are not always certain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 5:16 PM, MJO812 said: Models shouldn't go out past 150. It toys with people's emotions and they are erratic. Expand ok metfan 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 5:26 PM, WeatherFox said: Agree. When it's this far out there is no certainty to the forecast. It's just something to keep an eye on. We know that even short range forecasts are not always certain. Expand Yep exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Interesting euro. 2 lows like the other models but the 2nd low is alot colder than the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Just a thought. I wonder what's going to happen to the PV because of this? That wouldn't be in range yet. Seems to me, if you shove a very anomalous ridge to the pole. Could have some kind of effect. Vertically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 5:16 PM, MJO812 said: Models shouldn't go out past 150. It toys with people's emotions and they are erratic. Expand Maybe take your own advice and stop looking at op runs 3+ days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 1:17 PM, Allsnow said: Yeah, it’s convection (like thunderstorms in the summer) hard to really predict so far in the future. I think we go 7-(weakly) 8-1-2 It probably gets back in 3/4 to start February unfortunately Expand If there’s no big SSW in January and that’s indeed what happens, February will be a furnace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 7:04 PM, snowman19 said: If there’s no big SSW in January and that’s indeed what happens, February will be a furnace Expand I think mid Jan to Feb 15-20 will likely torch. If blocking hangs around then it'll be cooler. Best snowfall opportunities will be 1st half of Jan and then late winter. Good chance that blocking showing up now will show its face again and the -PNA won't be as damaging late winter due to wavelength changes. In fact a -PNA after Feb 20 is more favorable than a +PNA for snows here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 6:53 PM, SnoSki14 said: Maybe take your own advice and stop looking at op runs 3+ days out. Expand True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 6:50 PM, EasternLI said: Just a thought. I wonder what's going to happen to the PV because of this? That wouldn't be in range yet. Seems to me, if you shove a very anomalous ridge to the pole. Could have some kind of effect. Vertically. Expand Might even drop into the PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 tied for this year for #1 strongest PNA Strong La Nina satellite era 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 7:17 PM, StormchaserChuck! said: Might even drop into the PNA Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 My take after the 12z eps and gefs MJO. The MJO isn't going anywhere. Phase 7 forever. Australia seems like an anchor just keeping it there. At least for the foreseeable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 8:50 PM, EasternLI said: My take after the 12z eps and gefs MJO. The MJO isn't going anywhere. Phase 7 forever. Australia seems like an anchor just keeping it there. At least for the foreseeable. Expand That's fine for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 8:51 PM, MJO812 said: That's fine for us Expand Not saying it isn't. Just saying what it looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 8:53 PM, EasternLI said: Not saying it isn't. Just saying what it looks like. Expand 8 will happen but it might take some time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 5:16 PM, MJO812 said: Models shouldn't go out past 150. It toys with people's emotions and they are erratic. Expand You spend too much time in the NE thread. It’s a different climate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Anthony you're the man and i love your passion! you're also a very good at it! screw the haters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 8:50 PM, EasternLI said: My take after the 12z eps and gefs MJO. The MJO isn't going anywhere. Phase 7 forever. Australia seems like an anchor just keeping it there. At least for the foreseeable. Expand I wonder if it's correlated with western ENSO subsurface breaking +6c on CPC maps (today) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 On 12/26/2021 at 9:09 PM, StormchaserChuck! said: I wonder if it's correlated with western ENSO subsurface breaking +6c on CPC maps (today) Expand That could keep going. That's pretty wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 I only saw 2 years that did anything like this with the MJO. Back to 1975 on the BOM website. But they were less amplitude and the timing was different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Super El Niño followed both of these years.... 2 years later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 Also kind of interesting that those years were enso neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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