January 2022

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

This makes sense. I've noticed too they can be very good at rolling a pattern forward. As long as there isn't an emerging factor that could change the equation. The study I mentioned also stated that internal variability within a pattern was an issue. 

Yeah, it’s a big challenge trying to figure out the week 3-4 forecast based on week 1-2. Analog roll forwards beyond week 2 can be very low skill. Older analogs from colder eras haven’t been working very well in our post 2010 warmer climate. There is also a small sample size issue since many patterns have unique features that don’t repeat in the same ways. Plus we have random events like wave breaks which analogs won’t work for. Maybe machine learning will be the next big leap forward in long range forecasting. I think that’s what the ECWMF is researching for improvement to the weeklies and seasonal forecasts.

[MJO812]

Big cutter on 12z gfs for the 2nd

[NEG NAO]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big cutter on 12z gfs for the 2nd

as we get closer the GFS agrees with the current pattern

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

as we get closer the GFS agrees with the current pattern

Yep and the gefs is further north

Have to wait longer 

[WeatherFox]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep and the gefs is further north

Have to wait longer 

Ya, that's a possible long range snowstorm for folks in Maine.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WeatherFox said:

Ya, that's a possible long range snowstorm for folks in Maine.

They get enough snow 

[MJO812]

Models shouldn't go out past 150. It toys with people's  emotions and they are erratic.

[WeatherFox]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Models shouldn't go out past 150. It toys with people's  emotions and they are erratic.

Agree.  When it's this far out there is no certainty to the forecast.  It's just something to keep an eye on. We know that even short range forecasts are not always certain.

[forkyfork]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models shouldn't go out past 150. It toys with people's  emotions and they are erratic.

ok metfan

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, WeatherFox said:

Agree.  When it's this far out there is no certainty to the forecast.  It's just something to keep an eye on. We know that even short range forecasts are not always certain.

Yep exactly 

[MJO812]

Interesting euro.  2 lows like the other models but the 2nd low is alot colder than the other models

[EasternLI]

Just a thought. I wonder what's going to happen to the PV because of this? That wouldn't be in range yet. Seems to me, if you shove a very anomalous ridge to the pole. Could have some kind of effect. Vertically. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Models shouldn't go out past 150. It toys with people's  emotions and they are erratic.

Maybe take your own advice and stop looking at op runs 3+ days out.

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, it’s convection (like thunderstorms in the summer) hard to really predict so far in the future. I think we go 7-(weakly) 8-1-2

 

It probably gets back in 3/4 to start February unfortunately 

If there’s no big SSW in January and that’s indeed what happens, February will be a furnace 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If there’s no big SSW in January and that’s indeed what happens, February will be a furnace 

I think mid Jan to Feb 15-20 will likely torch. If blocking hangs around then it'll be cooler. Best snowfall opportunities will be 1st half of Jan and then late winter. 

Good chance that blocking showing up now will show its face again and the -PNA won't be as damaging late winter due to wavelength changes. In fact a -PNA after Feb 20 is more favorable than a +PNA for snows here.

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Maybe take your own advice and stop looking at op runs 3+ days out.

True

[StormchaserChuck!]

27 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Just a thought. I wonder what's going to happen to the PV because of this? That wouldn't be in range yet. Seems to me, if you shove a very anomalous ridge to the pole. Could have some kind of effect. Vertically. 

Might even drop into the PNA

[StormchaserChuck!]

tied for this year for #1 strongest PNA

Strong La Nina

satellite era

[EasternLI]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Might even drop into the PNA

[EasternLI]

My take after the 12z eps and gefs MJO. The MJO isn't going anywhere. Phase 7 forever. Australia seems like an anchor just keeping it there. At least for the foreseeable. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

My take after the 12z eps and gefs MJO. The MJO isn't going anywhere. Phase 7 forever. Australia seems like an anchor just keeping it there. At least for the foreseeable. 

That's fine for us

[EasternLI]

Just now, MJO812 said:

That's fine for us

Not saying it isn't. Just saying what it looks like. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Not saying it isn't. Just saying what it looks like. 

8 will happen but it might take some time

[psv88]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Models shouldn't go out past 150. It toys with people's  emotions and they are erratic.

You spend too much time in the NE thread. It’s a different climate. 

[RippleEffect]

Anthony you're the man and i love your passion! you're also a very good at it! screw the haters

[StormchaserChuck!]

19 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

My take after the 12z eps and gefs MJO. The MJO isn't going anywhere. Phase 7 forever. Australia seems like an anchor just keeping it there. At least for the foreseeable. 

I wonder if it's correlated with western ENSO subsurface breaking +6c on CPC maps (today)

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I wonder if it's correlated with western ENSO subsurface breaking +6c on CPC maps (today)

That could keep going. That's pretty wild. 

[EasternLI]

I only saw 2 years that did anything like this with the MJO. Back to 1975 on the BOM website. But they were less amplitude and the timing was different. 

[EasternLI]

Super El Niño followed both of these years.... 2 years later. 

[EasternLI]

Also kind of interesting that those years were enso neutral.