January 2022

[wdrag]

Does the December 2021 La Nina pattern edge to increasingly wintry scenarios here, with the - or neutral NAO largely persisting through January?

The results of the LaNina pattern here: The first 24 days of December showed basically less than half of normal precipitation with temps 2-4F above normal and less than half of normal seasonal snow.  Persistence (little change) would be good for heating bills and general travel - free of hazardous road conditions. Not so good for winter weather enthusiasts including skiing-skating-shoveling-plowing.

Monthly normal snowfall is 8.8" in CP. 

 

Added some CPC graphics at 11A. the 1 month outlook made Dec 16, and the 1 and 2-3 week outlooks made 12/24.

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Big storms showing up on the gfs around the 2nd and 8th. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Big storms showing up on the gfs around the 2nd and 8th. 

Ensembles are flatter for the 2nd 

[wdrag]

I hope I set the bar low enough for NYC Jan snow -= 1/2 of the normal.  I think many on here would be thrilled.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

I hope I set the bar low enough for NYC Jan snow -= 1/2 of the normal.  I think many on here would be thrilled.

it depends on what kind of snow it is-- all is not created equal

if its 1/2 of normal snow in storms that change to rain and is washed away getting no snow at all is far better

 

[EasternLI]

WAG but I'm digging the 8-10th period to maybe do something. Fingers crossed. 

[MJO812]

 

[MJO812]

Gfs trended away from a lakes cutter and has more of a SWFE look to a coastal. Nice press of cold air to the north. So close for the coast but interior areas get buried

 

[MJO812]

Cmc is also way less amped. Ukie also followed suite for the 2nd storm

 

[MJO812]

Mjo getting close to 8

[qg_omega]

16 hours ago, wdrag said:

I hope I set the bar low enough for NYC Jan snow -= 1/2 of the normal.  I think many on here would be thrilled.

Can’t imagine many being thrilled with 4.4 inches of snow for all of January

[snowman19]

@bluewave @donsutherland1 The talk of a cold and snowy early-mid January may need to be tamed a bit: 

 

 

[Allsnow]

@snowman19 no pattern lasts forever. It will flip just like every pattern the past few years that usually lasts 4-6 weeks

[wdrag]

Nothing a lock and I'm no long range expert-- but the NAEFS is spreading colder air east-southeastward across the northern part of the country in early January.  Cold enough for wintry mixes.  Jan 2-3 as previously noted is of interest for a potentially complex sizable multi wintry element event. I did not say major snowstorm but it seems like 1/2"+ of melted wintry qpf is possible for a part of our area. NO thread yet from myself, but will rereview modeling trends late today.  Have a good day!

 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Nothing a lock and I'm no long range expert-- but the NAEFS is spreading colder air east-southeastward across the northern part of the country in early January.  Cold enough for wintry mixes.  Jan 2-3 as previously noted is of interest for a potentially complex sizable multi wintry element event. I did not say major snowstorm but it seems like 1/2"+ of melted wintry qpf is possible for a part of our area. NO thread yet from myself, but will rereview modeling trends late today.  Have a good day!

 

Yeah, looks like a strat hit that will send cold our way around the 1st. After that the pac looks to reshuffle around the 7th. 

[EasternLI]

I'm a little wary of that Euro MJO forecast. It did try to push it to phase 8 late. The GEFS however seemed to back off a little and is slower. They were in better agreement yesterday IMO. Reminder, I'm not using those RMM charts. I'm looking at the what the ensembles are actually doing with the MJO. I'd just like to see some consistent agreement here. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I'm a little wary of that Euro MJO forecast. It did try to push it to phase 8 late. The GEFS however seemed to back off a little and is slower. They were in better agreement yesterday IMO. Reminder, I'm not using those RMM charts. I'm looking at the what the ensembles are actually doing with the MJO. I'd just like to see some consistent agreement here. 

Looping in 7 but getting closer also

Like Allsnow posted a few days ago , we can work with 7 in January. 

 

 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I'm a little wary of that Euro MJO forecast. It did try to push it to phase 8 late. The GEFS however seemed to back off a little and is slower. They were in better agreement yesterday IMO. Reminder, I'm not using those RMM charts. I'm looking at the what the ensembles are actually doing with the MJO. I'd just like to see some consistent agreement here. 

Latest olr map gets it into 8 finally but weakly. Perhaps that’s why we are seeing the ensembles flip the pac in the 11-15 day now 

[MJO812]

Got this from the Mid Atlantic subforum

[MJO812]

[EasternLI]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Latest olr map gets it into 8 finally but weakly. Perhaps that’s why we are seeing the ensembles flip the pac in the 11-15 day now 

I do believe that a Pacific flip is in the cards. The jet extension is the catalyst IMO. That's happening. But what does the MJO do? Not sure. The models have tried to move it along previously this year and it got stuck. Models are terrible with the MJO and this year has been even more challenging. So I'm just trying to keep an open mind and look at it objectively. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, EasternLI said:

I do believe that a Pacific flip is in the cards. The jet extension is the catalyst IMO. That's happening. But what does the MJO do? Not sure. The models have tried to move it along previously this year and it got stuck. Models are terrible with the MJO and this year has been even more challenging. So I'm just trying to keep an open mind and look at it objectively. 

Yeah, it’s convection (like thunderstorms in the summer) hard to really predict so far in the future. I think we go 7-(weakly) 8-1-2

 

It probably gets back in 3/4 to start February unfortunately 

[snowman19]

56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If he’s right, yea you get rid of the super -PNA but you also get a +EPO to go along with it, he says it in his tweet chain, that is NOT what you want to see, especially when AAM may work to also flip the NAO positive…Matt Hugo touched on that 

 

 

 

[EasternLI]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, it’s convection (like thunderstorms in the summer) hard to really predict so far in the future. I think we go 7-(weakly) 8-1-2

 

It probably gets back in 3/4 to start February unfortunately 

It's so hard to have an idea what actually happens. As bluewave posted in the December thread, even NOAA notes how unusual this is. But it's far far better to be where we are now instead of being stuck in 3/4 currently. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

It's so hard to have an idea what actually happens. As bluewave posted in the December thread, even NOAA notes how unusual this is. But it's far far better to be where we are now instead of being stuck in 3/4 currently. 

Agree 100%

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 The talk of a cold and snowy early-mid January may need to be tamed a bit: 

 

 

I’m continuing to think that January 1-10 will average cooler (near or somewhat below normal) but not very cold. Snowfall events will probably be small. 

[MJO812]

41 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

It's so hard to have an idea what actually happens. As bluewave posted in the December thread, even NOAA notes how unusual this is. But it's far far better to be where we are now instead of being stuck in 3/4 currently. 

Long range in general is very tricky to forecast.

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Long range in general is very tricky to forecast.

Always. I personally believe a significant portion of the reason for that is tropical convection. Which is tricky. I don't like the very long range models at all. I've read a study once, that said even a theoretical "perfect" model wouldn't be effective beyond 2 weeks. Even if it had far more computing power than is available currently. That's the reason I ignore them, for the most part. 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Always. I personally believe a significant portion of the reason for that is tropical convection. Which is tricky. I don't like the very long range models at all. I've read a study once, that said even a theoretical "perfect" model wouldn't be effective beyond 2 weeks. Even if it had far more computing power than is available currently. That's the reason I ignore them, for the most part. 

It seems like the EPS weeklies only have skill beyond 15 days when a pattern change happens during week 1. This works well when the new pattern lasts at least 4 weeks. But many pattern changes first show up on the EPS radar between days 8-15. So in those  cases, the old week 3 forecast can be way off. I am not sure how many times the weeklies have correctly predicted a pattern change that happened beyond week 2. 

[EasternLI]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It seems like the EPS weeklies only have skill beyond 15 days when a pattern change happens during week 1. This works well when the new pattern lasts at least 4 weeks. But many pattern changes first show up on the EPS radar between days 8-15. So in those  cases, the old week 3 forecast can be way off. I am not sure how many times the weeklies have correctly predicted a pattern change that happened beyond week 2. 

This makes sense. I've noticed too they can be very good at rolling a pattern forward. As long as there isn't an emerging factor that could change the equation. The study I mentioned also stated that internal variability within a pattern was an issue.