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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

We need a Canadian solution, which makes the ocean storm weak sauce.

Problem is that:

1) The Canadian is the only model doing that, and I'd feel more confident in George resolving the situation via mathematics.

2) The consensus is more likely to have a better handle on that one given its at day 4.

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4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

LOL, we will be watching model runs today rooting for a storm to be weak and OTS!

I mean, if that one would hit....cool, I'm all for it. But it just seems very unlikely at this range given the systems out west keeping the ridge in check. Bottom line is we just need to catch a break as far as the spacing here goes...don't want to use the "L" word and trigger a host of folks, but it is what it is.

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1 minute ago, ROOSTA said:

Ocean Bomb storms are my favorite to track. The unpredictablity of going from a clear and cold forecast to a 2' blizz is on a razors edge. They tend to be slow movers and back in at the 11th hour. Something to watch. Big model runs upcoming, there's a big one in there somewhere 

Yea, I mean if things looked great right now, we'd be citing the range and raising caution flags...so we def shouldn't be hammering any nails into coffins at this point. Should be changes forthcoming that hopefully help out.

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Once we get some clarification on evolution we can use ensemble clusters to give us a better idea. WPC has a 40% chance of over. 25 melted Sunday

20220110_090611.jpg

Depending on tides, we could still get some coastal flooding from that storm on Friday even if the snow misses.

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