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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s going to be a lot of snow over the next couple of weeks before it breaks down late month . Let’s get each one of these to perform starting with Friday 

Right now at least any breakdown waits until probably the final days of January or early February.    I’d like to see it just revert to Leon.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Right now at least any breakdown waits until probably the final days of January or early February.    I’d like to see it just revert to Leon.

Ensembles have a super strong signal at the end of their run which is like 1/24 or 1/25. Prob no true breakdown until February if that is close to correct. 
 

Things can always change though. We’ve seen that enough already this season. But I’m pretty optimistic. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

What’s the date on that MEX MOFOS Jerry? 

Friday and some Saturday.   Not muthufukkas beyond that time range as they cut off d6.    Fun times ahead-as I told my wife...majority of days rest of January are aob normal vs just the opposite prior.

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Friday and some Saturday.   Not muthufukkas beyond that time range as they cut off d6.    Fun times ahead-as I told my wife...majority of days rest of January are aob normal vs just the opposite prior.

Yes the Friday threat is very real . You can see it on all 3 ensembles . If it’s still there tomorrow noon, Will should start a thread on it. 

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. Right in the heart of winter climo. 

I had mentioned this to a friend of mine a couple of months ago when we were having drier and warmer weather here in the Boston area. What I felt would happen in January & February is now starting to show in the models.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles have a super strong signal at the end of their run which is like 1/24 or 1/25. Prob no true breakdown until February if that is close to correct. 
 

Things can always change though. We’ve seen that enough already this season. But I’m pretty optimistic. 

Yes. The remainder of January could be memorable.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles have a super strong signal at the end of their run which is like 1/24 or 1/25. Prob no true breakdown until February if that is close to correct. 
 

Things can always change though. We’ve seen that enough already this season. But I’m pretty optimistic. 

Sure do ...

I'm wondering if that is just the pattern's apex around that, vs one of those rarities where a signal has so much physical presence in the super synopsis, that it starts showing up at exotic lead times in the dailies ( Sandy, 1993, etc...) - if so, we may begin to see it?   I only suggest because looking at the GEF individual members, some of them have very large deep solutions along the EC...   Like KU on roids 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

My pack is getting pretty ripe/dense. No longer a fake effect fluffer pack. Around 5-6” but it’s gonna be a glacier by tomorrow morning. 
 

It’ll make a good bottom base layer on our march to 3+ feet OTG by early February. 

That's looking very possible right now.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Coming from the guy who pats himself on the back , issues letter grades on the board for each snow map, and cites his winter outlook in every other post. The most narcissistic poster on the board . Iron clad 

I'm sorry you feel this way. I try to also reference my failures. I sincerely hope Tolland excels in the coming pattern.

Happy New Year.

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26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Coming from the guy who pats himself on the back , issues letter grades on the board for each snow map, and cites his winter outlook in every other post. The most narcissistic poster on the board . Iron clad 

Damn...shitty way to publicly describe a friend...

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