HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Went to walk the dog. Mix of ZR and sleet pellets. Sun was popping in and out. Winds really picking up. Our side road was very icy despite the town salt truck going by earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 after zr most of the morning getting alot more sleet mixed in now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 18 and no precip here so far. If this shit isn’t snow keep it away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 28 minutes ago, dendrite said: Quickly up to 25°. Without any advection ZR can really pump up the latent heating. 38 here partly sunny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 38 here partly sunny Yup, dim sun platter here as well… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Temp up to 30.0⁰ after a low of 6.6⁰, everything glazed over with a few sleet pellets mixing in... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Getting a light wintry mix here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Our Weenie who art in Tolland Kevin be thy name Thy snow will come It will be done On Earth as it is in Tolland Give us this snow, our daily bread and forgive Ray for his trespasses As we forgive those who wish warmth against us And lead us not into coastal huggers But deliver us from cutters. For thine is the kingdom, the KU, the deformation glory. Amen. Lol Picture him giving a sermon in front of George, Anthony, Wolfie and Tiger Torch. Tiger Torch mumbling about how he hates being there and suddenly Wolfie headlocks him. All heck breaks out but the Rev raises his voice and shouts the weenie ten commandments, they turn their heads and nod in agreement. You shall have no other weenie Revs before Me. You shall make no Twitter idols. You shall not take the name of the Rev in vain. Keep Feb 1978 holy. Honor your weenie brothers and sisters You shall not mention non crystallized precipitation. You shall not commit to wishing for high dews in winter. You shall post 384 hour snow maps You shall not bear no snow against your weenie neighbors. You shall not cancel winter In the name of Kocin and Uccelini Amen 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Our Weenie who art in Tolland Kevin be thy name Thy snow will come It will be done On Earth as it is in Tolland Give us this snow, our daily bread and forgive Ray for his trespasses As we forgive those who wish warmth against us And lead us not into coastal huggers But deliver us from cutters. For thine is the kingdom, the KU, the deformation glory. Amen. This is the greatest post. Ever. I am going to work on an Ave Maria version. In Latin. edit: if we keep this up God will smote us with thundersnow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Can't get snow but seems like we've had no trouble with ZR, What a mess out there again this morning, 27/21°F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Man imagine Ray if we get the STJ and Miller As going? 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 18 and no precip here so far. If this shit isn’t snow keep it away. Freezing rain in BW and the mountain is making snow at the same time...I see how 2022 is going to go...well played 2022, well played 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Getting a light wintry mix here now. Get ready Phin. You are finally going to get a taste of real NNE cold. Last winter I barely got down to 0F. Way off my record of -19F. Take the kids out and do water experiments on Tuesday early. It can be fun to pour water on the car and have it freeze before it hits the ground etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 The last several GFS runs have a strong signal ~6 days out for a low pressure to form off the southeast and move northward while intensifying. Revent runs have moved it to the west and intensify the low by a greater degree. This is the 06z run for today, we watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man imagine Ray if we get the STJ and Miller As going? If we get a few Miller As, everyone should be thrilled except the south coast (should they hug). They tend to be better for building a pack anyways. I think Miller As have less of a gap between winners and loosers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL: This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why: Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms. There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past. Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table. Saw that last night, and it's really more of a continuation of that which was set into motion, within the GEFs mean, a few days ago; the 15th - end of the month. The difference overnight, there is a subtle (if perhaps eventually telling ) honing around the 300 hour range. Hard to say if that's a pattern maximization, vs one of those rarities where a signal has so much physical presence in the super synopsis, that it starts showing up at exotic lead times in the dailies ( Sandy, 1993, etc...) Time, ironically ... is the only thing that will bring circumstances into emergence and figure out which is which... But that is for now, a huge teleconnector convergence on that time frame, elucidated rather nicely with your animations/annotation. Naturally I'm in agreement on the two weeks of favorable circulation mode(s) overall. I was commenting with the NY members over there yesterday, that I am wondering if this may enter an "R-wave storm" event, mid month+ The Last time this happened was 2015 ... 2013 back toward the Lakes... They usually come with distinct re-enforcing events, perhaps a 3 to 5 day periodicity between, in total taking two or three weeks to exhaust before rollout - There was a meteorologist many decades ago that postulated these as more like planetary storms, each discrete events like squalls within - getting metaphorical but the idea was couched similarly. I've always rather liked the concept of that, however. It's one of the "cozy" assertions that just feels right. Anyway, wandering sorry lol. But other notable years were 1995-1996 and 1977-1978, but not as analogs, for occurrence. Locales can amass > 50% of a seasonal quota that way. They define intraseasonal anomaly scopes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol Picture him giving a sermon in front of George, Anthony, Wolfie and Tiger Torch. Tiger Torch mumbling about how he hates being there and suddenly Wolfie headlocks him. All heck breaks out but the Rev raises his voice and shouts the weenie ten commandments, they turn their heads and nod in agreement. You shall have no other weenie Revs before Me. You shall make no Twitter idols. You shall not take the name of the Rev in vain. Keep Feb 1978 holy. Honor your weenie brothers and sisters You shall not mention non crystallized precipitation. You shall not commit to wishing for high dews in winter. You shall post 384 hour snow maps You shall not bear no snow against your weenie neighbors. You shall not cancel winter In the name of Kocin and Uccelini Amen BAHAHAHA That’s too dam funny.. lmfao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said: If we get a few Miller As, everyone should be thrilled except the south coast (should they hug). They tend to be better for building a pack anyways. I think Miller As have less of a gap between winners and loosers They typically max out to our south, which he despises. They can work just fine for a large event, but typically jack the mid atlantic area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Full on scalp fest right now, 22° F. This is one of the only times I'm actually happy to be getting sleet as it would otherwise be freezing rain. Not sure how long I'll stay sleet with the WAA ongoing aloft though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 19 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: The last several GFS runs have a strong signal ~6 days out for a low pressure to form off the southeast and move northward while intensifying. Revent runs have moved it to the west and intensify the low by a greater degree. This is the 06z run for today, we watch? We don't take our eyes off it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Kind of an interesting observation outside right now. Winds are gusting maybe 30 mph while it's 33 F in a mist of light rain. But, some of the snows that lingered in their stenciling of the tree limbs is being knocked to the vagaries of the winds, and sets to whirling in the breeze as though immediately it is still powdery in nature. It's like a recording of the colder recent times, spilling into the present tenths of a failing "warm" up - it's a temp recovery, but it ain't warm out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Rain and 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 28 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: The last several GFS runs have a strong signal ~6 days out for a low pressure to form off the southeast and move northward while intensifying. Revent runs have moved it to the west and intensify the low by a greater degree. This is the 06z run for today, we watch? I'm just waiting for the 80 hour NAM 925 millibar low civilization ending runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 36 minutes ago, dryslot said: Can't get snow but seems like we've had no trouble with ZR, What a mess out there again this morning, 27/21°F This has to be at least the 6th ZR event this season here. Relentless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Can't even see out the window 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Winds are roaring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 33 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: The last several GFS runs have a strong signal ~6 days out for a low pressure to form off the southeast and move northward while intensifying. Revent runs have moved it to the west and intensify the low by a greater degree. This is the 06z run for today, we watch? Hazey's drooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Rain and 33F. Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 There are a few 6z eps members that hit eastern Maine with the ocean event on the 13th, the 17/18th wave looked bit less amplified vs 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Winds are roaring Weird, Tip said same but pretty calm here. Driveway is a skating rink though. Up to 29° with steady light rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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