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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Our Weenie who art in Tolland 

Kevin be thy name

Thy snow will come 

It will be done

On Earth as it is in Tolland

Give us this snow, our daily bread and forgive Ray for his trespasses

As we forgive those who wish warmth against us 

And lead us not into coastal huggers

But deliver us from cutters.

For thine is the kingdom, the KU, the deformation glory. 
 

Amen. 

 

Lol 

Picture him giving a sermon in front of George, Anthony, Wolfie and Tiger Torch. Tiger Torch mumbling about how he hates being there and  suddenly Wolfie headlocks him. All heck breaks out but the Rev raises his voice and shouts the weenie ten commandments, they turn their heads and nod in agreement.

 

You shall have no other weenie Revs before Me.

You shall make no Twitter idols.

You shall not take the name of the Rev in vain.

Keep Feb 1978 holy.

Honor your weenie brothers and sisters

You shall not mention non crystallized precipitation.

You shall not commit to wishing for high dews in winter.

You shall post 384 hour snow maps

You shall not bear no snow against your weenie neighbors.

You shall not cancel winter

 

In the name of Kocin and Uccelini

Amen

Screenshot_20220109-073919_Chrome.jpg

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Our Weenie who art in Tolland 

Kevin be thy name

Thy snow will come 

It will be done

On Earth as it is in Tolland

Give us this snow, our daily bread and forgive Ray for his trespasses

As we forgive those who wish warmth against us 

And lead us not into coastal huggers

But deliver us from cutters.

For thine is the kingdom, the KU, the deformation glory. 
 

Amen. 

 

This is the greatest post.  Ever.  I am going to work on an Ave Maria version.  In Latin.

 

edit:  if we keep this up God will smote us with thundersnow.  

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Getting a light wintry mix here now. 

Get ready Phin.  You are finally going to get a taste of real NNE cold.  Last winter I barely got down to 0F.  Way off my record of -19F.   Take the kids out and do water experiments on Tuesday early.  It can be fun to pour water on the car and have it freeze before it hits the ground etc.

 

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The last several GFS runs have a strong signal ~6 days out for a low pressure to form off the southeast and move northward while intensifying. Revent runs have moved it to the west and intensify the low by a greater degree. This is the 06z run for today, we watch?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man imagine Ray if we get the STJ and Miller As going?

 

0523FF3A-093E-4084-B501-A9F10CBD67BE.jpeg

If we get a few Miller As, everyone should be thrilled except the south coast (should they hug). They tend to be better for building a pack anyways.  I think Miller As have less of a gap between winners and loosers

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3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL:

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1641686400-1642204800-1643068800-10-1.thumb.gif.05fadbeca58ddda0a0e0b3e03bcb5f46.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1641686400-1642204800-1642982400-10-1.thumb.gif.70319252d1ceaa96dfe16d4deb3ae65e.gif

This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why:gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-2766400.thumb.png.eb81b44cd6e180b4c75f2fd0e443862d.png

Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. 

The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms.

There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past.

Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table.

Saw that last night, and it's really more of a continuation of that which was set into motion, within the GEFs mean, a few days ago; the 15th - end of the month.   The difference overnight, there is a subtle (if perhaps eventually telling ) honing around the 300 hour range.  Hard to say if that's a pattern maximization, vs one of those rarities where a signal has so much physical presence in the super synopsis, that it starts showing up at exotic lead times in the dailies ( Sandy, 1993, etc...)  

Time, ironically ... is the only thing that will bring circumstances into emergence and figure out which is which...  But that is for now, a huge teleconnector convergence on that time frame, elucidated rather nicely with your animations/annotation.

 Naturally I'm in agreement on the two weeks of favorable circulation mode(s) overall.   I was commenting with the NY members over there yesterday, that I am wondering if this may enter an "R-wave storm" event, mid month+  

The Last time this happened was 2015 ... 2013 back toward the Lakes...  They usually come with distinct re-enforcing events, perhaps a 3 to 5 day periodicity between, in total taking two or three weeks to exhaust before rollout -  There was a meteorologist many decades ago that postulated these as more like planetary storms, each discrete events like squalls within - getting metaphorical but the idea was couched similarly.  I've always rather liked the concept of that, however.  It's one of the "cozy" assertions that just feels right.  Anyway, wandering sorry lol.  But other notable years were 1995-1996 and 1977-1978, but not as analogs, for occurrence.  Locales can amass > 50% of a seasonal quota that way.  They define intraseasonal anomaly scopes.

 

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16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol 

Picture him giving a sermon in front of George, Anthony, Wolfie and Tiger Torch. Tiger Torch mumbling about how he hates being there and  suddenly Wolfie headlocks him. All heck breaks out but the Rev raises his voice and shouts the weenie ten commandments, they turn their heads and nod in agreement.

 

You shall have no other weenie Revs before Me.

You shall make no Twitter idols.

You shall not take the name of the Rev in vain.

Keep Feb 1978 holy.

Honor your weenie brothers and sisters

You shall not mention non crystallized precipitation.

You shall not commit to wishing for high dews in winter.

You shall post 384 hour snow maps

You shall not bear no snow against your weenie neighbors.

You shall not cancel winter

 

In the name of Kocin and Uccelini

Amen

Screenshot_20220109-073919_Chrome.jpg

BAHAHAHA:lol:  That’s too dam funny.. lmfao

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1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

If we get a few Miller As, everyone should be thrilled except the south coast (should they hug). They tend to be better for building a pack anyways.  I think Miller As have less of a gap between winners and loosers

They typically max out to our south, which he despises. They can work just fine for a large event, but typically jack the mid atlantic area.

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19 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

The last several GFS runs have a strong signal ~6 days out for a low pressure to form off the southeast and move northward while intensifying. Revent runs have moved it to the west and intensify the low by a greater degree. This is the 06z run for today, we watch?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

We don't take our eyes off it.  

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Kind of an interesting observation outside right now.  Winds are gusting maybe 30 mph while it's 33 F in a mist of light rain.  But, some of the snows that lingered in their stenciling of the tree limbs is being knocked to the vagaries of the winds, and sets to whirling in the breeze as though immediately it is still powdery in nature.  It's like a recording of the colder recent times, spilling into the present tenths of a failing "warm" up  - it's a temp recovery, but it ain't warm out there.  

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28 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

The last several GFS runs have a strong signal ~6 days out for a low pressure to form off the southeast and move northward while intensifying. Revent runs have moved it to the west and intensify the low by a greater degree. This is the 06z run for today, we watch?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

I'm just waiting for the 80 hour NAM 925 millibar low civilization ending runs.

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33 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

The last several GFS runs have a strong signal ~6 days out for a low pressure to form off the southeast and move northward while intensifying. Revent runs have moved it to the west and intensify the low by a greater degree. This is the 06z run for today, we watch?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png

Hazey's drooling

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