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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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Our Weenie who art in Tolland 

Kevin be thy name

Thy snow will come 

It will be done

On Earth as it is in Tolland

Give us this snow, our daily bread and forgive Ray for his trespasses

As we forgive those who wish warmth against us 

And lead us not into coastal huggers

But deliver us from cutters.

For thine is the kingdom, the KU, the deformation glory. 
 

Amen. 

 

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL:

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1641686400-1642204800-1643068800-10-1.thumb.gif.05fadbeca58ddda0a0e0b3e03bcb5f46.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1641686400-1642204800-1642982400-10-1.thumb.gif.70319252d1ceaa96dfe16d4deb3ae65e.gif

This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why:gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-2766400.thumb.png.eb81b44cd6e180b4c75f2fd0e443862d.png

Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. 

The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms.

There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past.

Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table.

Nice write up.  Chime in on this board early and often!

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Euro last night going back to back big dawgs w/ a touch of ensemble support. Goofus going out a bit, showing a parade of coastals. Me thinks we are heading towards something special. Other Mets have eloquently explained this with science and data. I’m like a weenie hype man,  standing behind jay-z(who in this case are Will, Scott, Dendy and many other brilliant folks, too many to list) and I’m just behind them, emphatically belting out every third word, “Uh, yeeeaaaahhh, snow, Uh, storms, yeaahhh, KU’s, whaaaaaT” 

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol at infighting over anything a week out. Ray needs Bergs edibles. Lol 

Long week of tracking while the deck pops from cold expansion.  Minus 30 departure incoming 

 

Hi Lars

Wife woke me up at 130 this morning...Did you hear that loud popping sound? I see the low got down to 6.6⁰ right around that time, definitely the deck. Was it 2017 when the ground was cracking around here? 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

May he have an entire week’s worth of ARW runs smoking N VT. 

Thanks guys.  I want some PSU E-Wall SREF crush job maps, toggle to ARW family.  :lol:

Pouring very tiny sleet with ZR mixed in here at the mountain.  Just when we were starting to build some fluff it crusts over, this winter is the winter that just keeps giving, ha.

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