January 2022 Obs/Disco

[moneypitmike]

35 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

You sound like Corey now

Perhaps, but I'd drive to Camden rather than Brattleboro.

[Ginx snewx]

Lol at infighting over anything a week out. Ray needs Bergs edibles. Lol 

Long week of tracking while the deck pops from cold expansion.  Minus 30 departure incoming 

 

Hi Lars

[brooklynwx99]

It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL:

This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why:

Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. 

The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms.

There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past.

Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table.

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Mother of God.jpg

 

Lol, push that thing 150 miles west and let's shut down the eastern seaboard.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah it seems like Friday is the storm not Monday 

[BrianW]

31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol at infighting over anything a week out. Ray needs Bergs edibles. Lol 

Long week of tracking while the deck pops from cold expansion.  Minus 30 departure incoming 

 

Hi Lars

My house was making all kinds of crazy expansion noises last night. It went from 17 to 32 in less than 10 mins last night. 

HVN obs.

23.20 17.6   N 0

23:25 21.2  SW 6.9

23:30 32    S 8

 

[LSC97wxnut]

Temps really rocketing up.

28.8 to 30.1 in the last 40 minutes or so.

[ORH_wxman]

48 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL:

This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why:

Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. 

The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms.

There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past.

Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table.

Good animations there. The STJ is an interesting addition recently. It should make things really interesting. Northern stream is still dominant which is good for New England (unlike some years when it’s congrats M.A.) but adding extra STJ moisture could make it more exciting. 

[Not me in VT]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Perhaps, but I'd drive to Camden rather than Brattleboro.

Come on up this way! Had to Brattleboro and head up route 30. 

[Ginx snewx]

54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL:

This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why:

Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. 

The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms.

There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past.

Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table.

Thanks great writeup. Totally on board with your thinking. Certainly has that 13 to 15 look. All aboard the weenie train. We are headed towards Epicosity city, last train leaves the 17th. 

[Ginx snewx]

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah it seems like Friday is the storm not Monday 

Nah that's not the one. Ctease

[Modfan2]

Still looks like a potential icing threat as most areas still in mid 20’s

[HoarfrostHubb]

46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah it seems like Friday is the storm not Monday 

Maybe even Thursday night?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nah that's not the one. Ctease

I happen to think it’s going to snow Friday

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Maybe even Thursday night?

Yes sir 

[UnitedWx]

Well, the driveway and walks are officially a sheet of ice. Freezing drizzle and snow grains 26°

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Maybe even Thursday night?

He loves rushing stuff in.

[Damage In Tolland]

Reading back thru the overnight posts , there definitely was a couple guys reading issues of High Times .. lots of erratic behavior 

[HoarfrostHubb]

The freezing rain is rushing in today

25F and light rain.   Things will get icy quickly 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Had a brief period of sleet around 7am

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I happen to think it’s going to snow Friday

Hope so Senioŕ Kevin. Bring back the Rev!!

[Ginx snewx]

Scooter wheres the Rev prayer

[HIPPYVALLEY]

24°  FZRA

It’s coming down hard enough that it’s sticking to surfaces but not so much to the trees branches or wires etc.  The roads are going to be a mess for a little while.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

24°  FZRA

It’s coming down hard enough that it’s sticking to surfaces but not so much to the trees branches or wires etc.  The roads are going to be a mess for a little while.

Congrats in the CAD zone

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

It's tough to lose it if you're getting 15".  But if they're getting 40" 25 miles away--I would.  Dive into the Kennebec.

4" here and nearly 4 feet in BGR?  Fortunately, nothing like that will happen.

[CoastalWx]

Had some snow grains earlier. 29.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Scooter wheres the Rev prayer

May need to rewrite it again. Unless someone saved it. 

[dendrite]

-ZR

18.6°

[The 4 Seasons]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengthen and remain stable thanks to a semi-permanent Aleutian ULL:

This pattern is pretty much a complete 180 from what we saw for most of December, as there is cross-polar flow established that continues throughout much, if not all of the month. This pattern is highly reminiscent of the 2013-15 winters, where there were extreme arctic outbreaks as well as increased storminess to go along with it. Now, this pattern is certainly not one that you'd normally see in a Nina, and here's why:

Note the negative height anomalies in the S US along with the split flow W of S CA. This signals that the STJ will be open for business, which is rare in -ENSO winters where the northern stream is dominant and the STJ is often nowhere to be found. 

The main reason, at least to me, as to why this pattern is so potent is because of the split flow. There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms.

There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past.

Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. Our next threat is around the 15th, and there's already a lot of phasing potential there. We will likely have to wait until after the 20th for the pattern to mature a bit, but a KU is certainly on the table.

Excellent breakdown, very impressed, and i agree.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

-ZR

18.6°

You can’t stop him