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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can honestly say that its more fun losing to NNE than SNE and it's not close....powder and subby holes are so boring. Much rather track the coastal front, rain/snow line, deal with paste and note the changing landscape as I travel to work. 

6” is 6” whether it’s man snow or not. I could care less who I lose out to. Why is it so triggering? And in Boxing Day you had almost a foot. It’s not like you had 3” of sand and lost out to Boston. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6” is 6” whether it’s man snow or not. I could care less who I lose out to. Why is it so triggering? And in Boxing Day you had almost a foot. It’s not like you had 3” of sand and lost out to Boston. 

We'll agree to disagree. I value paste more than sublimation sauce...and to me, tracking rain/snow line and cf is more fun than watching death bands and oes streamers run the train on the coast and I95.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you should extrapolate the Navy out 8 days and go for it. 

I'll post a grid map for snow depth in that timeframe if you insist, but for what reason I have no idea? Heck even MSLP is way "off" (wrong) in the LA-LA land of modelling. 
Potential is there, support from ensembles, some model agreement. Further runs needed to validate threat... something to watch. I think something else is going to pop in the interim.    

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We'll agree to disagree. I value paste more than sublimation sauce...and to me, tracking rain/snow line and cf is more fun than watching death bands and oes streamers run the train on the coast and I95.

Maybe we can get the CF over Salem NH?

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’d probably pay up myself to experience a retro stalled out 30+ event too. My biggest of all time is Jan96 with 26”. 

My 31 in Jan 96 (philly) coast me 5K in consulting fees.  I couldn't afford that, but apparently I could.  A few inches down that morning as the storm was just getting going, and I was due to go to the airport to fly in Cincinatti.  The flight hadn't been cancelled, much to my alarm.  I just said fook it and pretended I couldn't get to the airport and they were cancelling all the flights.  In retrospect, worth every penny.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right. I live in Methuen right now...pretty standard KU here. Nothing extraordinary 

I lived in Randolph at the time, moving to Westwood about 1 1/2 years after the blizzard.  We had the Army clear close to 4 feet of snow from the street because no plows could handle it.

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Just now, 78Blizzard said:

I lived in Randolph at the time, moving to Westwood about 1 1/2 years after the blizzard.  We had the Army clear close to 4 feet of snow from the street because no plows could handle it.

You probably had around 3 feet...those were likely drifts. Not here to argue, just MHO. I Think the 40"+ was a small area in N RI

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was a really nice looking euro run even if we didn’t get totally buried. You can see all the opportunities there. I do not think it will be a boring week of model watching coming up. 

 

I don't either....was just saying past few days of OP runs were boring verbatim...FWIW.

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26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can't wait for scooter to distract me by typing out how he thinks my area looks good with one hand, while he steals my snow with the other. 

Neat trick-

Don’t forget hammering home the point of regression while he waits for his snowblower to warm up so he can clear his latest foot.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You probably had around 3 feet...those were likely drifts. Not here to argue, just MHO. I Think the 40"+ was a small area in N RI

Actually, N RI was the area that had some 50"+ reports.  Also, it was a very wet snow so drifting was minimal.  I know, because we had to shovel it from the driveway without a snowblower.  Luckily it was a small driveway.

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I'm gonna be interested in the EPS mean ...

This operational run has definitely taken a step toward "seeing" the potential in the flow beyond D6.  I'd be willing to hunch that future cycles tend to sans one or two of those entities between D 7 and 10, in lieu of more focus on one.  It's generating it's own neg interference. The 500 mb evolution centered on D7.5-8 is a gem for huge problems NYC --> NE, but its paltry surface reflection.  I don't have a problem with rapidity and repetition, ... but not with such deep features.  Those aren't exactly shallow troughs.

But the prior/leading EPS means have been pretty consistent with a signal that corroborates the notion for "D9" amplitude in general.  The 12z GEFs made a subtle trend toward more depth. 

The stasis in the elevated PNA ... and now we have a -NAO ?  interesting party arrival... west based, arrival.  Don't want it statically negative, but with the PNA leading and western ridge in place ( better than recently) this starts to suggest teleconnector convergence ( disparate indicators targeting the same region ) may be evolving. 

 

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