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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 2019 was pretty legit. Coldest max high at ORH since Jan 1994. 
 

Last year I think many of the rad spots went below 0F pretty easily but ORH had a low of 0F. Second year in a row not breaking 0F. Last time that happened I think was the 2000-2001 and 2001-2002 winters. 

Last subzero max here was January 6, 2018.  Also had 2 subzero highs in December plus a 1° high in each month during that remarkable cold spell - 5 out of 10 days 12/28-1/6 had highs from 1 to -6.  Only a weird diurnal pattern prevented 1-2 more in January 2019.  Both the 20th and 21st were below zero during the daylight hours (including IP at -2 on the 20th) but the temp rose to 6° during the evening of the 20th and stayed there long enough to contaminate the 21st.  Coldest max last winter was a modest 14, as we were getting fringed by the December mega band.

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Better 12z GFS rollin' in wrt to scaffolding a significant event D7 - 9, comparing 00z.

00z was too bold with N/stream insertion into the NP, ... causing suppression/compression and velocity problems that ventured on in negative interference to not doing much in the time frame above. 

The larger super synopsis of the hemisphere leading ...offers more support and probably atones for the EPS ( and GEFs...) signal -above normal coherence for 192 hours off the 00z run. 

Anyway, 12z has substantive N/stream amplitude descending without out it being so overwhelmingly powerful.. Thus, conserves the S/stream eject through the west underneath ... "possibly" setting stage for more then less phasing. 

The flow overall in that period is relaxed over the velocity saturation as of recent weeks ( and f'n winters for that matter). 

Interesting aside, this sort of gradient slackening took place last January, too, thought gradient and speed came back in Feb.

The numerical telecon spread is fiddling with the PNA in a not so savory way.  It's still neutral ( esque), but seems members slipping neggie out there. Not sure it's real.. We just spent a day and half with server farm/comms problems down at NCEP, so maybe these are temporarily unstable.  Both the graphical means of EPS and GEFs, offer wave amplitude ... less neg interference E of 100 W across the continental mid latitudes -

Maybe a thread tomorrow...

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28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Better 12z GFS rollin' in wrt to scaffolding a significant event D7 - 9, comparing 00z.

00z was too bold with N/stream insertion into the NP, ... causing suppression/compression and velocity problems that ventured on in negative interference to not doing much in the time frame above. 

The larger super synopsis of the hemisphere leading ...offers more support and probably atones for the EPS ( and GEFs...) signal -above normal coherence for 192 hours off the 00z run. 

Anyway, 12z has substantive N/stream amplitude descending without out it being so overwhelmingly powerful.. Thus, conserves the S/stream eject through the west underneath ... "possibly" setting stage for more then less phasing. 

The flow overall in that period is relaxed over the velocity saturation as of recent weeks ( and f'n winters for that matter). 

Interesting aside, this sort of gradient slackening took place last January, too, thought gradient and speed came back in Feb.

The numerical telecon spread is fiddling with the PNA in a not so savory way.  It's still neutral ( esque), but seems members slipping neggie out there. Not sure it's real.. We just spent a day and half with server farm/comms problems down at NCEP, so maybe these are temporarily unstable.  Both the graphical means of EPS and GEFs, offer wave amplitude ... less neg interference E of 100 W across the continental mid latitudes -

Maybe a thread tomorrow...

I have owned it for 8 days now.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Better 12z GFS rollin' in wrt to scaffolding a significant event D7 - 9, comparing 00z.

00z was too bold with N/stream insertion into the NP, ... causing suppression/compression and velocity problems that ventured on in negative interference to not doing much in the time frame above. 

The larger super synopsis of the hemisphere leading ...offers more support and probably atones for the EPS ( and GEFs...) signal -above normal coherence for 192 hours off the 00z run. 

Anyway, 12z has substantive N/stream amplitude descending without out it being so overwhelmingly powerful.. Thus, conserves the S/stream eject through the west underneath ... "possibly" setting stage for more then less phasing. 

The flow overall in that period is relaxed over the velocity saturation as of recent weeks ( and f'n winters for that matter). 

Interesting aside, this sort of gradient slackening too place last January, too.

The numerical telecon spread is fiddling with the PNA in a not so savory way.  It's still neutral ( esque), but seems members slipping neggie out there. Not sure it's real.. We just spent a day and half with server farm/comms problems down at NCEP, so maybe these are temporarily unstable.  Both the graphical means of EPS and GEFs, offer wave amplitude ... less neg interference E of 100 W across the continental mid latitudes -

Maybe a thread tomorrow...

Tip- your typically not the one to start and early thread, but given your eagerness with the last storm and sounds like your liking the D7-9 look has to be encouraging.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

:lol:…ya he’s always worried about ground temp…so silly. 

It really isn't though, it's basic science.  Of course in big dog bombs it doesn't matter, but in marginal little critter events it does matter if you get some blowing and road cover versus just a wet road.  k? 

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