January 2022 Obs/Disco

[UnitedWx]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Been awhile since touching down in this thread... Not sure what the status is, so tfwiw -

Firstly, re that cold:  don't be surprised if it ends up less extreme.  These cold waves that take the long trajectory through southern Canada, and then come here while the L/W  and N-stream are relaxing, tend to be over modeled at this range.   Nonetheless, -20 850s with successful cryo landscape now/then in place will bite.

2nd:   Signal around D9 is real ... might be able to play with date, but something is going on out there just beyond the cold wave next week. I wouldn't thread for it at this time, but it's legit.  It's been in the deep field ens, perhaps just the "cadence" if you will, more so than directly observable. I believe it was mentioned earlier in the week in the other thread, ' a fuzzy signal mid month..' 

Anyway, now the 00z EPS and GEFs mean are more materialized in their depiction. The EPS in particularly has rather robust signal, D8 ..10, and it is one that -imho - does synchronize with modes/modalities transmitting downstream, which at larger scales are also multi-model cluster agreed upon.  Those being, a quasi -instilled +PNA cyclic flexing, the first of which we have relaxed(ing) height garland from old Mexico to Bermuda, while the flow plumbs toward TV latitudes.  The EPS closes off a contour already and runs up to NS. 

I would be less inclined to mention much of this if the abv mentioned, larger scaled scaffolding were not recognizable.  It is also encouraging for "hunch" confidence, because they essentially agree as said.  

In fact, just for muse for now, the extended range GEFs imply winter rock and rolls from the 20th to some unknown ends.

 

It's uncanny. I just got back to the office and was thinking, OK whats next as I haven't looked the last couple days. Thanks for the update. It does seem like there's been a signal there for a few days...at least there's something interesting to watch.

[George001]

I don’t know if it means anything now, but the La Niña trending towards being more and more east based could be really good for later in the winter. The pattern looks to be really good for the rest of Jan on the long range models, could the East based nature of the Nina  help us in Feb and March?

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I't be nice to see a clipper, been awhile.  a nice strip of 4-6 20:1 low viz Iowa style

I've seen 3-5" down with the orb of the sun dim visible, aggregates transiting in front of it, yet 1/2 mi vis on the ground ...  Those are neat clippers when they roll down through a deep blue arctic air mass. 

 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

16 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

It's hour 366, so lock it in.

You should start a thread.

Nor shall the days in which a thread beginnan exceed the length of thy ween. Let it be done.

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've see 3-5" down with the orb of the sun dim visible, aggregates transiting in front of it, yet 1/2 mi vis on the ground ...  Those are neat clippers when the roll down through a deep blue arctic air mass. 

 

the very best refreshers when you are in a deep winter pattern, and then followed 3 days later by a slow moving Miller A blocked up since that clipper became a 50-50 under a greenland block.  And followed by a Miller B as the 50-50 drifts ene and the blocken slackens off.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

What time frame? I haven't had a chance to look... I'm in the plow truck

Was out day 9, but it did turn to rain.

[Ginx snewx]

7 days until I start my thread....

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

7 days until I start my thread....

Be nice if we can get whatever is out there in that time frame(1/17-1/18?), to trend back to a coastal look…if it’s indeed real? 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

It's uncanny. I just got back to the office and was thinking, OK whats next as I haven't looked the last couple days. Thanks for the update. It does seem like there's been a signal there for a few days...at least there's something interesting to watch.

For winter enthusiasts and that "d-drip contingent" ... post mortem can be tricky on the psyche.. After an event, alleviation of "withdraw syndrome " comes from perpetuity of some kind; and when the model-telecons-ens mean mathodone clinic's open for business ...? ahhhh

I'm kidding of course... but we've all been there.  Sense of 'loss' after a big storm, it's like post-partum depression in some ways.  Interesting... This event had lots of ramp up time resulting in a fever pitch.  What next?   If say ... we were staring down the barrel of a mode shift toward interminable warmth, that would almost make it worst to have had this event at all. 

...It appears we go from this into an interesting pattern, one which may actually contain a target too ... We'll see - preliminary is D9/negotiable

[Typhoon Tip]

56 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

the very best refreshers when you are in a deep winter pattern, and then followed 3 days later by a slow moving Miller A blocked up since that clipper became a 50-50 under a greenland block.  And followed by a Miller B as the 50-50 drifts ene and the blocken slackens off.

This reply made me laugh a little...  I mean it's like, 'yeah, just get a steady diet of snow storms' and call it day. lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

the very best refreshers when you are in a deep winter pattern, and then followed 3 days later by a slow moving Miller A blocked up since that clipper became a 50-50 under a greenland block.  And followed by a Miller B as the 50-50 drifts ene and the blocken slackens off.

I'm sure the next event will nail your area and sleet the shit out of me.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For winter enthusiasts and that "d-drip contingent" ... post mortem can be tricky on the psyche.. After an event, alleviation of "withdraw syndrome " comes from perpetuity of some kind; and when the model-telecons-ens mean mathodone clinic's open for business ...? ahhhh

I'm kidding of course... but we've all been there.  Sense of 'loss' after a big storm, it's like post-partum depression in some ways.  Interesting... This event had lots of ramp up time resulting in a fever pitch.  What next?   If say ... we were staring down the barrel of a mode shift toward interminable warmth, that would almost make it worst to have had this event at all. 

...It appears we go from this into an interesting pattern, one which may actually contain a target too ... We'll see - preliminary is D9/negotiable

You have the hot hand so you must start the next storm threat thread!!

[NorEastermass128]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure the next event will nail your area and sleet the shit out of me.

This will probably be my only pure snow event of >3” this winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

I don’t know if it means anything now, but the La Niña trending towards being more and more east based could be really good for later in the winter. The pattern looks to be really good for the rest of Jan on the long range models, could the East based nature of the Nina  help us in Feb and March?

Agree, George.

[ORH_wxman]

Next "events" for those wondering:

Small events:

Maybe minor ZR threat Sunday? This shouldn't be a big deal and mostly for the deeper interior, but we've already seen a couple of these throw roads into chaos.

Monday has a windex threat...mostly for NNE but even SNE could see something

Thursday has had a clipper system showing up on a few runs....looks fairly weak, but sometimes you get a band. Wouldn't expect much right now.

 

Bigger events:

Next weekend still has a signal for potentially something bigger...but no guarantees. None of the OP models today were biting on it.

[JC-CT]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Next weekend still has a signal for potentially something bigger...but no guarantees. None of the OP models today were biting on it.

Yeah there's a decent signal sometime between the 16th-18th, we'll see

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah there's a decent signal sometime between the 16th-18th, we'll see

EPS was "liking" 1/16...I used the quotes since it's not a super strong signal, but it does have a mean closed low pressure near or just SE of the BM.

[Modfan2]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS was "liking" 1/16...I used the quotes since it's not a super strong signal, but it does have a mean closed low pressure near or just SE of the BM.

Is Sunday a pack washer?

[DavisStraight]

 If we can preserve most of today's snow before the next we can start pack building.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

Is Sunday a pack washer?

No I doubt it....maybe on the Cape it could be where they spend most of the day in the 40s....but for the rest of the region its prob just a few hours in the 35-40 range before FROPA late afternoon/evening....and parts of the deeper interior may never even get above freezing.

For example, the Euro actually keeps ORH to BDL in the mid 30s as highs.

[kdxken]

55 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

This will probably be my only pure snow event of >3” this winter. 

I was hoping you got some snow. If I had to wager on snake bit you would be near the top of the list.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

 If we can preserve most of today's snow before the next we can start pack building.

The 20:1ness of the snow quality might be problematic without refits, outside of the meso band/lolly axis.  The 4-5'ers, those of us skirting that band, sublimation might take some toll on it. 

That said, it does not appear there is any kind of rapid turn-around in thickness after this thing.  In fact, it'll be rather chilly through the weekend.  As Will mentioned - there's some sort of whisky boundary threat for rain/snow showers ..probably ending as a WINDEX as that arctic truer blue expression comes through.   Between the cold before that front, and the cold during next week... probably what fell is safe.  Areas like me to ASH and FIT may be down to grass blades poking through.   Squalls can help but not much...

Fleeting possibility a clipper like S/W later this week may emerge from the mid range as refit potential but that's long odds.  

 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No I doubt it....maybe on the Cape it could be where they spend most of the day in the 40s....but for the rest of the region its prob just a few hours in the 35-40 range before FROPA late afternoon/evening....and parts of the deeper interior may never even get above freezing.

For example, the Euro actually keeps ORH to BDL in the mid 30s as highs.

We need ice and water in this pack. Otherwise it vaporizes. Slightly worried 

[DavisStraight]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The 20:1ness of the snow quality might be problematic without refits, outside of the meso band/lolly axis.  The 4-5'ers, those of us skirting that band, sublimation might take some toll on it. 

That said, it does not appear there is any kind of rapid turn-around in thickness after this thing.  In fact, it'll be rather chilly through the weekend.  As Will mentioned - there's some sort of whisky boundary threat for rain/snow showers ..probably ending as a WINDEX as that arctic truer blue expression comes through.   Between the cold before that front, and the cold during next week... probably what fell is safe.  Areas like me to ASH and FIT may be down to grass blades poking through.   Squalls can help but not much...

Fleeting possibility a clipper like S/W later this week may emerge from the mid range as refit potential but that's long odds.  

 

It'll get crushed down but after Tuesday it may be a nice solid base, albeit half as deep.

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We need ice and water in this pack. Otherwise it vaporizes. Slightly worried 

You're not losing it on Sunday....lol. Maybe if you had 3" of feathers you would but you have a half inch of liquid in there. It's not a ton, but it's not getting wiped out by a few hours in the upper 30s or even low 40s if that was the case. But in order for it to survive longer, it will definitely need some additional events on top of it....even in cold weather it's going to sublimate slowly.

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We need ice and water in this pack. Otherwise it vaporizes. Slightly worried 

The first step will be natural compaction. I always find my snow tends to want to compact toward 10:1 over a few days. Then possible 30s and liquid precip will knock it down to an extent. Tuesday will try to sublimate some, but that won’t do much to it. But you’ll still have a tough base after this weekend. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The first step will be natural compaction. I always find my snow tends to want to compact toward 10:1 over a few days. Then possible 30s and liquid precip will knock it down to an extent. Tuesday will try to sublimate some, but that won’t do much to it. But you’ll still have a tough base after this weekend. 

Hopefully can add ice Sunday even if does get into mid 30’s for a few hours. 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You're not losing it on Sunday....lol. Maybe if you had 3" of feathers you would but you have a half inch of liquid in there. It's not a ton, but it's not getting wiped out by a few hours in the upper 30s or even low 40s if that was the case. But in order for it to survive longer, it will definitely need some additional events on top of it....even in cold weather it's going to sublimate slowly.

Maybe the clipper amps up a bit mid week. Sometimes we see those do that like a day or two in advance 

[Modfan2]

39 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

It'll get crushed down but after Tuesday it may be a nice solid base, albeit half as deep.

My thought is you will have 3-4” of solid ice by Tuesday; pack padding

[ice1972]

All right lets go.......shit or get off the pot winter......we'll need consistent shots now - repeated over and over and over like Jan 2011.......but we can't go even a week without something