ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still think post 10th is good. Maybe the one thing I'll get right. Yeah at least there is good agreement on a good pattern for most of this month....but I'm hoping the GEFS are more correct because they are a Ron Burgundy pants tent rather than merely a good pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Actually triple phase potential there. I know what my weekend blog will be about..... I really like the mid Jan period. Tons of potential there, even some -NAO blocking showing up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 There's probably going to be some really good arctic outbreaks too in this pattern. The phased PNA/EPO ridge is a classic arctic outbreak signal for our area. It tends to push the PV more toward eastern Canada. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 49 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: need to max this next light/mod snower to salvage the first half of month? looks cold and very very dry beyond... 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah at least there is good agreement on a good pattern for most of this month....but I'm hoping the GEFS are more correct because they are a Ron Burgundy pants tent rather than merely a good pattern. hmmm, who do i believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still think post 10th is good. Maybe the one thing I'll get right. I went with 2010-2011 and 2020-2021 as my two primary ENSO analogs due to placement of max anomalies, but the mistake I made was not adhering more closely to 2010-2011 due to how well coupled this la nina is, as opposed to last year's no-show ordeal. I needed to incorporate strength more. Big oversight on my part in November...that would have alleviated the main flaw in my forecast, which was reversing the PNA from December to January. As far as the warm December goes, the record RNA was just so massive and that is extremely difficult to foresee. I'm happy with how I have handled the polar domain, though I think the lower AK heights also persisted a bit longer into December than I had envisioned, which further augmented the warmth that I missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I went with 2010-2011 and 2020-2021 as my two primary ENSO analogs due to placement of max anomalies, but the mistake I made was not adhering more closely to 2010-2011 due to how well coupled this la nina is, as opposed to last year's no-show ordeal. I needed to incorporate strength more. Big oversight on my part in November...that would have alleviated the main flaw in my forecast, which was reversing the PNA from December to January. As far as the warm December goes, the record RNA was just so massive and that is extremely difficult to foresee. I'm happy with how I have handled the polar domain, though I think the lower AK heights also persisted a bit longer into December than I had envisioned, which further augmented the warmth that I missed. The extreme magnitude of the RNA trough definitely mucked up some forecasts....even medium range forecasts, not just long range. Honestly, we had a legit good NAO block so even a slightly less deep RNA trough probably nets us a lot more cold and snow in December. But that's how the dice fall sometimes. The change in the PAC is pretty fortunate timing since we have lost the NAO blocking for the time being....we're going to be living off the Pacific. Some of the guidance hints at -NAO trying to come back later in the month but I'm not biting on that yet. My guess is any big NAO block would likely wait until later in the winter to return. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The extreme magnitude of the RNA trough definitely mucked up some forecasts....even medium range forecasts, not just long range. Honestly, we had a legit good NAO block so even a slightly less deep RNA trough probably nets us a lot more cold and snow in December. But that's how the dice fall sometimes. The change in the PAC is pretty fortunate timing since we have lost the NAO blocking for the time being....we're going to be living off the Pacific. Some of the guidance hints at -NAO trying to come back later in the month but I'm not biting on that yet. My guess is any big NAO block would likely wait until later in the winter to return. I agree...I think the next big NAO is later Feb into March....but even just trend it more neutral for January. This is shaping up a lot like January 2011, though...obviously that doesn't have to mean 50" of snow, but you get the idea. As far as December goes, I can live with missed forecasts when they are easily explained. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree...I think the next big NAO is later Feb into March....but even just trend it more neutral for January. This is shaping up a lot like January 2011, though...obviously that doesn't have to mean 50" of snow, but you get the idea. As far as December goes, I can live with missed forecasts when they are easily explained. What do you think about the one GEFS is showing for mid month? Head fake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: What do you think about the one GEFS is showing for mid month? Head fake? It looks more like N ATL ridging rather than true blocking....though there's some hints of it trying to form a block in Greenland/Davis Strait, but even N ATL ridging can be useful. The GEFS are definitely more bullish on any of that getting back into Greenland/Davis strait than the EPS. The EPS was more just straight N ATL ridging. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah at least there is good agreement on a good pattern for most of this month....but I'm hoping the GEFS are more correct because they are a Ron Burgundy pants tent rather than merely a good pattern. looks dry on the long range models no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It looks more like N ATL ridging rather than true blocking....though there's some hints of it trying to form a block in Greenland/Davis Strait, but even N ATL ridging can be useful. The GEFS are definitely more bullish on any of that getting back into Greenland/Davis strait than the EPS. The EPS was more just straight N ATL ridging. Ya GEFS are beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Clown range Euro is cooking up a monster....clown range as it is, but ensembles have also been hinting at that mid-month period for something bigger. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Clown range Euro is cooking up a monster....clown range as it is, but ensembles have also been hinting at that mid-month period for something bigger. With a 1035 high in Canada 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 58 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: What do you think about the one GEFS is showing for mid month? Head fake? I’m not a gfs guy, but the other guidance has a similar look (maybe a bit less blocking, which is fine). I haven’t seen a look this good on guidance since March 2018, and us having a moderate snowstorm on our doorstep makes me optimistic that this pattern is for real and not a model hallucination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Clown range Euro is cooking up a monster....clown range as it is, but ensembles have also been hinting at that mid-month period for something bigger. That is for real...imagine if that PV lobe phased in. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Clown range Euro is cooking up a monster....clown range as it is, but ensembles have also been hinting at that mid-month period for something bigger. You beat me to it. What a thing of beauty, and only 40 more euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 34.5F for the high and starting to drop. Almost no rn and no "pack" loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: What do you think about the one GEFS is showing for mid month? Head fake? I'd be surprised if we popped another legit NAO in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 We take... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We take... Looks like the PV lobe wants to play ball on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Long range lookin' nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Clown range Euro is cooking up a monster....clown range as it is, but ensembles have also been hinting at that mid-month period for something bigger. Please just one 20 incher this month would be so nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I don’t remember seeing the long range ever looking this good last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Long range lookin' nice. Its harder to fail when its a pacific rooted pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its harder to fail when its a pacific rooted pattern. It is King. Fact not opinion. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 50 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: 34.5F for the high and starting to drop. Almost no rn and no "pack" loss. meh , spoke too soon. Temp heading up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 36.0 at home...nothing to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 29.2°…a couple tenths of sn/pl out there. Dropped about 10° on the car thermo from CON to home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 52.7F was the high. Currently 50.8F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 52.7F was the high. Currently 50.8F How's your pack holding up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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