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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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On 12/30/2021 at 7:25 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I don’t think you want it over us for a snowy stretch just nearby. With a favorable trough axis. 

Walking the dogs around 545am, temp was 11F with a slight wind-chill of 9, starting to feel down here like winter, just need the white stuff on the ground!

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Long range still looks pretty good. That relaxation if you will may feature some storminess. Next week could be very cold for a couple of days before it relaxes a bit. After that, we'll see what the PAC does. Should be a decent -EPO, but PNA may drop a bit. Good news is that with wider wavelengths (wider space of cold) and more storminess, could spell some fun.

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22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My day 15 storm is now day 12

Looks like a set up that works for many from NC to Maine.  Does the Atlantic high pressure act to slow it down? With that PNA and extreme meridional flow, you would expect a very amplified system, perhaps a very far south Miller B?  Is the set up sufficent to bring it north and slow it down?

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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Looks like a set up that works for many from NC to Maine.  Does the Atlantic high pressure act to slow it down? With that PNA and extreme meridional flow, you would expect a very amplified system, perhaps a very far south Miller B?  Is the set up sufficent to bring it north and slow it down?

Classic look

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Ensemble-based analogs are pretty tasty....Jan 2005, Jan 2009, Jan 2003, Jan 1994, Jan 1961 are all showing up as analogs as we get out into days 8-12.

Hopefully that sticks. I agree with Scott that it looks like -PNA is trying to return near month-end, but we'll see. If a really good AK ridge gets established, then it might keep the PNA more near neutral late month and into early February which would be ideal.

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