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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I went 8 to 16 max zones. Over a foot in areas already. Disaster though with trees down

That's probably going to be the biggest story in post-event reviews. Not buying the snow threat wasn't great, but then no real mention of a power outage threat. 

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

By the way those total snow depth change maps are bunk. 

I think you're being a little harsh there. 

ecmwf-deterministic-md-snow_24hr_kuchera

Kuchera and 10:1 were pretty similar maps.

ecmwf-deterministic-md-snow_depth-124360

But that depth map isn't that far off reported totals as it winds down. DCA reporting a snowfall and depth of 6.7/7. The over 10" amounts are just south of the DC area like shown on the 02/12z ECMWF. Maybe the depth is going to miss the highest amounts, but overall that map will be vastly better than the 10:1 or Kuchie maps. Of course that's why we don't like to forecast with clown maps to begin with.

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36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Box will probably cancel advisories and the warning on Nantucket soon what a bust for them

It was always going to be close there.  Even the HRRR was showing a decent bout of snow there until very recently.  Might be a few hours before they decide to abandon them entirely... it was a close call, but going with a warning instead of an advisory was probably the call to make based on the forecasting tools available.

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WPC day 4 map looks perfect, with the low forming right in the Delaware Bay and 24 hours later  NNE of NS.  That is a good track for interior SNE, CNE, NNE.  And from the discussion:

Regarding the early period East Coast low, the 06z/12z
GFS continues to be faster/more offshore with the track while the
bulk of the rest of the guidance suggests something closer to the
coast and a more impactful winter storm from the lower Ohio Valley
into the Northeast.

And in the threats/hazards everywhere form just nw of Philly into all of NE is under threat for heavy snow.  

I'm thinking a general 6-12 is coming.

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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

WPC day 4 map looks perfect, with the low forming right in the Delaware Bay and 24 hours later  NNE of NS.  That is a good track for interior SNE, CNE, NNE.  And from the discussion:

Regarding the early period East Coast low, the 06z/12z
GFS continues to be faster/more offshore with the track while the
bulk of the rest of the guidance suggests something closer to the
coast and a more impactful winter storm from the lower Ohio Valley
into the Northeast.

And in the threats/hazards everywhere form just nw of Philly into all of NE is under threat for heavy snow.  

I'm thinking a general 6-12 is coming.

Agreed, its not worth fretting over details at this point. It's better to just let the baroclinic zone and the west coast ridge do the macroscale work

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