The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: OMG This really is about to deliver a surprise slam isn’t it. No. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: You’re gonna get 8-12. Enjoy! No, but you might. I’m personally expecting 2” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Nantucket and Washington DC going to have more snow than Worcester on 1/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: No, but you might. I’m personally expecting 2” no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I'll take the under on he SREF output. Boy what a c**k****e for those S/E of 95 on that map... If I get some flurries/snow showers after this week I call it a win lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: No, but you might. I’m personally expecting 2” This storm would have to come a decent tick north to get 8-12". This is strictly a storm for the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I still think Boston is getting more snow than DC from this one. Im convinced we see another big north shift tomorrow, the trough looks like it’s more neutral than the guidance currently had it. That is a really good sign. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 The south shore of LI and the twin forks might do well. They are the line for a solid plowable adv level event. 18Z vs 00Z NaMmY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: yea ACK looks good for at least a half a foot, high end 12. I'd be shocked if those watches aren't converted to warnings, at least for ACK. MVY might go advisory. Looks fun for them, they deserve it. Where's @TheGrauplerisn't he on ACK? I'm surprised he isn't posting Maybe he got choked out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: no. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, OceanStWx said: LOL. What is the context of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: No. It might. That was a jarring tick N 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: OMG This really is about to deliver a surprise slam isn’t it. Look at those snow totals in E NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Lets do this for "James" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: The south shore of LI and the twin forks might do well. They are the line for a solid plowable adv level event. 18Z vs 00Z NaMmY Nice 75 mile bump north in 1 run lol. Let’s have another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: LOL. What is the context of this? Social media tornado report last year (of course it ended up being correct ) Still not seeing a lot of room for dramatic improvements here. Northern stream is still coming in deeper than model forecasts, which is going to tend to flatten the whole thing out. Any minor differences in the southern stream or ridging ahead of it doesn't look to be enough to overcome. It's really splitting hairs, but when the expectation is 2 inches at IJD and the highest model guidance is like 0.8", no wonder people are always disappointed around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Lol. AB meme. Also it was 86 in Alabama yesterday, grounds too warm to stick right... 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I think the Dover, Delaware area will end up being pretty close to the Jackpot in this particular snow event. I think about 10-12" may do it. Curious see the final results down there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Social media tornado report last year (of course it ended up being correct ) Still not seeing a lot of room for dramatic improvements here. Northern stream is still coming in deeper than model forecasts, which is going to tend to flatten the whole thing out. Any minor differences in the southern stream or ridging ahead of it doesn't look to be enough to overcome. It's really splitting hairs, but when the expectation is 2 inches at IJD and the highest model guidance is like 0.8", no wonder people are always disappointed around here. Amen. Still feel like the late surge north is a model hallucination, at least to a degree. Never touched this one with the blog...willing to risk getting burned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Greg said: I think the Dover, Delaware area will end up being pretty close to the Jackpot in this particular snow event. I think about 10-12" may do it. We'll see. I don't think anyone breaks 8". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think anyone breaks 8". Like I said my friend, "we'll see", just a mere tongue and cheek forecast from me is all it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, Greg said: Like I said my friend, "we'll see", just a mere tongue and cheek forecast from me is all it is. Yea, you could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Amen. Still feel like the late surge north is a model hallucination, at least to a degree. Never touched this one with the blog...willing to risk getting burned. There's going to be some brutal gradients on the northern edge too. Philly wondering WTF happened while 20 miles away gets 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: There's going to be some brutal gradients on the northern edge too. Philly wondering WTF happened while 20 miles away gets 6+. Feb 6, 2010 has entered the chat. I believe that was the one where there was huge gradient just on Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, OceanStWx said: There's going to be some brutal gradients on the northern edge too. Philly wondering WTF happened while 20 miles away gets 6+. PD1 light it's 1979 all over again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 35 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Nantucket and Washington DC going to have more snow than Worcester on 1/5 You gotta love anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think anyone breaks 8". It doesn't have the look of a great event. Marginal temps, start as heavy rain, counting on monster rates to materialize... I have seen many of these storms where it ends up spitting for hours at 33 instead of pounding big rates at 31. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 40 minutes ago, George001 said: I still think Boston is getting more snow than DC from this one. Im convinced we see another big north shift tomorrow, the trough looks like it’s more neutral than the guidance currently had it. That is a really good sign. Boston more than DC? It must be the NAVGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: It doesn't have the look of a great event. Marginal temps, start as heavy rain, counting on monster rates to materialize... I have seen many of these storms where it ends up spitting for hours at 33 instead of pounding big rates at 31. Bet they start as snow Balt Dc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Currently 50 at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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