40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: We have a raging La Niña? In certain respects... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Cmc ticked slightly north but nothing big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: PD1 lol Ray's already in the bathtub I really don't care about it. I'm not. This isn't PD I....its like a 4-8" deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Cmc ticked slightly north but nothing big Time is running out. I have a hard time seeing it much more north than what the gfs has. We’ll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Time is running out. I have a hard time seeing it much more north than what the gfs has. We’ll see. 4 more runs GFS is definitely way NW of anything and moving more that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, weathafella said: We have a raging La Niña? Yes, the La Niña has increased in strength even more and has crossed the moderate threshold. It crossed the -1.0 threshold about a week ago in the 3.4 region, -1.3 in the enso 3 region, -1.6 in the enso 1.2 region, and -.4 in the Enso 4 region. One thing I learned from reading the mid Atlantic forums is they often get screwed in la ninas, even when things look good just a couple days out. Even last year, in that big December storm it started with the lower mid Atlantic getting hammered and us being on the northern edge. Then just a few days out, it started trending north, and just kept trending north right up until it started snowing. That storm must have moved like 400-500 miles north on the models in just 3-4 days, we went from the southern edge to the northern edge, and the bullseye which was intially modeled to be in the lower mid Atlantic ended up being in upstate NY, with some areas getting over 3 feet. My area got about 15 inches or so. I don’t think it trends that far north since it’s only 2 days out, but even 100 miles north would be enough to bring a major nor’easter to eastern mass. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Check out the 2nd best model lol. That effing POS. That’s unacceptable from 12hrs ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Ukie, GEM, and GEFs look gold for Friday. Fwiw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ukie, GEM, and GEFs look gold for Friday. Fwiw. Don't mind seeing OP GFS suppressed right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't mind seeing OP GFS suppressed right now. Yeah it’s actually not far from being good. It’s fine to be honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, George001 said: Yes, the La Niña has increased in strength even more and has crossed the moderate threshold. It crossed the -1.0 threshold about a week ago in the 3.4 region, -1.3 in the enso 3 region, -1.6 in the enso 1.2 region, and -.4 in the Enso 4 region. One thing I learned from reading the mid Atlantic forums is they often get screwed in la ninas, even when things look good just a couple days out. Even last year, in that big December storm it started with the lower mid Atlantic getting hammered and us being on the northern edge. Then just a few days out, it started trending north, and just kept trending north right up until it started snowing. That storm must have moved like 400-500 miles north on the models in just 3-4 days, we went from the southern edge to the northern edge, and the bullseye which was intially modeled to be in the lower mid Atlantic ended up being in upstate NY, with some areas getting over 3 feet. My area got about 15 inches or so. I don’t think it trends that far north since it’s only 2 days out, but even 100 miles north would be enough to bring a major nor’easter to eastern mass. George, La Niña isn't judged on dailies. it's tri monthly. Not every wx event is explainable just by throwing enso at the wall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, weathafella said: George, La Niña isn't judged on dailies. it's tri monthly. Not every wx event is explainable just by throwing enso at the wall. You are both are correct in a way...this event is a significantly more prominent driver in the atmosphere than ONI would imply. But I also wince when people cite daily readings....weekly is worth following.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it’s actually not far from being good. It’s fine to be honest. Yea, no complaints. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 What a blue ball storm lol. Congrats ACK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 A man can only handle so much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Euro folds lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 24 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: A man can only handle so much. Some blinding snows from the southern wrecks to southern George's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12-16” for DC tomorrow. Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 12-16” for DC tomorrow. Unreal I'm hoping for a slight north shift here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 NAM be like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Has Phin melted yet? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Hi res Nam also north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Lots of dry air on NW side. Check soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lots of dry air on NW side. Check soundings It's going to be painful if we all miss out and the mid Atlantic is going to make snow angels . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: It's going to be painful if we all miss out and the mid Atlantic is going to make snow angels . I’m over it. Good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m over it. Good for them. I didn't even realize till just now that there was a storm coming there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's going to be painful if we all miss out and the mid Atlantic is going to make snow angels . It's been awhile. Maybe 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Gotta feel good for the weenies down in MD, DC, S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: It's been awhile. Maybe 2010? Cutoff looks like that Latest Euro bumped North slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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