Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
 Share

Recommended Posts

I saw an interesting image on another forum, the 18z euro is a miss to the south, but it moved NW about 40-50 miles from the last run and more importantly it is very close to being something much bigger if that northern stream phases just a little quicker. This is so close to being something big even in new england. We have a storm missing us like 50 miles to the south on most guidance 2 days out with a raging La Niña in place….

image.gif.9c76aa41d3d11063401903131d3b242f.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice conflicting signals tonight as sonde data comes in. Both the northern stream and the southern stream are deeper than 12z guidance forecast. 

Conflicting because ensemble sensitivity suggested that you wanted a deeper southern stream/weaker northern stream to produce a stronger/farther west system for Monday. 

So then the question becomes which feature do we believe dominates. I'm personally leaning that the northern stream is going to "cap" just how much room this one has to sneak north. If we can't give ridging enough room to flex ahead of the southern stream that pretty well limits potential.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Nice conflicting signals tonight as sonde data comes in. Both the northern stream and the southern stream are deeper than 12z guidance forecast. 

Conflicting because ensemble sensitivity suggested that you wanted a deeper southern stream/weaker northern stream to produce a stronger/farther west system for Monday. 

So then the question becomes which feature do we believe dominates. I'm personally leaning that the northern stream is going to "cap" just how much room this one has to sneak north. If we can't give ridging enough room to flex ahead of the southern stream that pretty well limits potential.

 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Nice conflicting signals tonight as sonde data comes in. Both the northern stream and the southern stream are deeper than 12z guidance forecast. 

Conflicting because ensemble sensitivity suggested that you wanted a deeper southern stream/weaker northern stream to produce a stronger/farther west system for Monday. 

So then the question becomes which feature do we believe dominates. I'm personally leaning that the northern stream is going to "cap" just how much room this one has to sneak north. If we can't give ridging enough room to flex ahead of the southern stream that pretty well limits potential.

Recent runs have pushed snow a little further north into NVA, and I could see that continue a little bit. But it may not translate up the coast for the reason you mention. The precipitation edge seems to be running more east-west instead of northeast up the coast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s obeying the old srn s/w rule, but I feel like we might be too far NW. 

We need the northern stream to be weaker and sheared but it isn’t playing ball. That southern vort keeps strengthening but if the northern one does too then it’s prob not enough for us. 
 

Chris was talking about the competing forces there earlier and it’s a good way to put it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...