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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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Yeah Scott is right…that is the best EPS look we’ve had all winter and probably since 2018 if you love snow and deep cold going with it. 
 

I’m still being a little cautious given the struggles guidance has had…but it’s a good sign that the start of that pattern is now inside of D10. 

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49 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Will, what’s the difference between the two maps? They both say ensemble mean, and are both valid for the same day, which is Sunday 1/16/22, 360 hrs out.  Is one just a 10-15 day mean? And the other a mean for the whole 16 days? 

Jerry confirmed what I was going to respond with…yeah, it’s a 5 day mean vs a single point in time map. That last map was for hour 360 at the end of the run. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jerry confirmed what I was going to respond with…yeah, it’s a 5 day mean vs a single point in time map. That last map was for hour 360 at the end of the run. 

Ok thanks a lot. Ya I kind of was figuring that too..but wasn’t completely sure.  And thanks to Jerry too.  

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jerry confirmed what I was going to respond with…yeah, it’s a 5 day mean vs a single point in time map. That last map was for hour 360 at the end of the run. 

For whatever it’s worth at this juncture...they both looked great. Hope we can keep it looking good over the next week.

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This may sound crazy but I’m still keeping an eye on Monday for a last minute 50-100 mile NW jump, I like seeing the RGEM and long range HRRR on board but would like to see the NAM, euro, and Canadian guidance move NW before I jump on board. Low probability, but worth keeping an eye on the potential for a surprise nor’easter on Monday, that southern stream energy is really powerful. Then we have the bigger storm threat Friday (looks like a miller b to me), the strength of the low keeps increasing on the models with each run for that one. 

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