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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That type of phased PNA/EPO ridge in the second image is a very cold pattern historically. So it wouldn’t surprise me to see a very strong arctic outbreak at some point if that verifies. 

Hopefully that one prevents suppression depression.  Seems like plenty of room for storms to come north.  Would there be potential for phasers if pieces of that vortex break off?

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Tossing a model 48 hours out ? You would think it would be good this far out.

It’s a very similar setup and model error of last weeks “mini nuke.”  GFS was 100 percent wrong on a 48 hr forecast, this looks same.  It’s phantom bombing these lows 

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Tossing a model 48 hours out ? You would think it would be good this far out.

GFS is kind of on its own on this one. NAM wants none of this and it’s within range of it being relatively accurate. Will be surprised if GFS is right on this one.

The positive on this is that even though the storm is a miss, at it at least has a semblance of change in the pattern indicated with a storm actually strengthening into some sort of cyclone to the south of us, rather than shredded mozzarella we’ve been getting last two weeks. Slow progress…

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Happy New Year to all. 
Looking into the crystal ball. Baby steps I say baby steps, I'll be looking at the slow lowering of HGTS to the SE Ridge. Get that "modelled" cutter or crapper to pass open the gates to the cold thus a reallign to the overall wave pattern. Looks like a volitale pattern that the OP models have yet to sniff out.
A patern change looks to be in the making.    

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