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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This one isn't going to rat....as frustrating of a start as it has been, I stand by the notion that it will be decent.

I mean with storm climo the way it’s been in recent years … one blockbuster should end any debate. 

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12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

3k is really nice.

00z HRRR went far north with a very blocked flow and snowfall upstream of barriers.  It does make sense if it stays north and a bit more mild.  The cold air advection in the lowest levels quickly deep into the western sides of barriers, aided by topographic slowing/convergence/lifting, can certainly favor those west of both of us.  Depends on when the cold air gets situated.  Pre-event CAA we are good on more eastern orientation… later in the event with shallow surface cold hitting first, anything northwest is best.

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2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Then there's the 0z NAM.

True, total miss on the NAM at the moment... but it's at the edge of the 12K range and not in the range of the 3k yet... probably not worth factoring it in for now considering it's not even in agreement with any of the globals on the strength of that low anywhere on the east coast.

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3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

True, total miss on the NAM at the moment... but it's at the edge of the 12K range and not in the range of the 3k yet... probably not worth factoring it in for now considering it's not even in agreement with any of the globals on the strength of that low anywhere on the east coast.

I think it's a big red flag for anyone in coastal VA, MD, DE, NJ hoping for snow that the NAM continues to be so flat at this relatively short range.

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Hard to conjure 2022.  I remember as a young boy thinking about 2000 and realizing I'd be in my 50s....thinking oh man-I'll be so old!  Now it's 22 years later and I'm 75 and glad to be alive!   Bruce in his heyday sang...said it so well.....

"For the ones who had a notion-a notion deep inside that it ain't no sin to be glad you're alive"

 

 

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