40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Winter 2021/22, phase 8 is perpetually only 8 days away.... Maybe that's why its phase 8? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 I went and looked at the GEFS. They take the southern s/w and sharpen it, while the nrn stream s/w sort of lifts out enough for the heights to buckle. I can't really get excited when it's the only guidance showing this so far. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yikes La Nina. Spanish for "F U, little girl" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Many GFS runs from a couple weeks ago had like 36"+ snow depth here by now. Worked out well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 My guess it is gets storm near the end of that first of January with all of the mass flux, but really going to need to thread the needle here in SNE due to the fact that the NAO block is gone as the RNA becomes less hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 I think by mid month the pattern is shit...short window to work with the week of 1/7-14 and even then may need some luck. Latitude is best. I guess the hope is that we really pop a mid month PNA, like 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Euro ain't buying the GFS for the analfrontal system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro ain't buying the GFS for the analfrontal system. In others news, covid is contagious. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: In others news, covid is contagious. Exactly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro ain't buying the GFS for the analfrontal system. This is really surprising. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 RDU first inch of snow before BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think by mid month the pattern is shit...short window to work with the week of 1/7-14 and even then may need some luck. Latitude is best. I guess the hope is that we really pop a mid month PNA, like 2011. I'll be cheering for dews by then if it's shit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll be cheering for dews by then if it's shit. CFS is actually frigid for Jan, Feb, and March. It was correctly very warm for Dec.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Euro still liking 1/7 for something trackable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 That's the only one to look forward too at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: CFS is actually frigid for Jan, Feb, and March. It was correctly very warm for Dec.... Oh I am sure we are going to go straight to cold and dry at some point...then we can nickle and dime ourselves straight through March, but snow is snow and will be happy no matter what I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 We will finally get a pattern flip for March-April. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: We will finally get a pattern flip for March-April. The good ole’ April to June wheel of rhea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 I can't believe how bleak this looks. Latest snowfall of 1 inch or greater in Jeopardy, was January 19 2002. Still glad I live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think by mid month the pattern is shit...short window to work with the week of 1/7-14 and even then may need some luck. Latitude is best. I guess the hope is that we really pop a mid month PNA, like 2011. So if I read this right Ray ....best shot from say Jan.7-14th? And then we go down the shitter again? I think you mentioned in your outlook Jan was so so? But the way I read that January is "short lived", Have you lowered your seasonal projection or you still sticking by your guns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Man the GEFS and EPS are pretty different in the N PAC in the 11-15. GEFS has a nuclear EPO ridge…almost 2015-Esque. EPS are really lowering heights in AK though there is still some cross polar flow to the N of AK 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro still liking 1/7 for something trackable. This was posted (not by you necessarily) most of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man the GEFS and EPS are pretty different in the N PAC in the 11-15. GEFS has a nuclear EPO ridge…almost 2015-Esque. EPS are really lowering heights in AK though there is still some cross polar flow to the N of AK I don't mind the EPS..maybe clipper-ish? Has a decent ridge out west and a mean placement of surface high pressure north of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Man the GEFS and EPS are pretty different in the N PAC in the 11-15. GEFS has a nuclear EPO ridge…almost 2015-Esque. EPS are really lowering heights in AK though there is still some cross polar flow to the N of AK Typical EPS Bias with the lower heights in AK. As far as the GEFS goes I really hope it's right. Yes, many references going around this winter will be like 2014-2015. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Well good news is that SE ridging is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Typical EPS Bias with the lower heights in AK. As far as the GEFS goes I really hope it's right. Yes, many references going around this winter will be like 2014-2015. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 That turns into a nice Pacific pattern actually. I'd take that for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Man the GEFS and EPS are pretty different in the N PAC in the 11-15. GEFS has a nuclear EPO ridge…almost 2015-Esque. EPS are really lowering heights in AK though there is still some cross polar flow to the N of AK Lol that’s what I’ve been saying… pray the GEFS is right .. west coast ridge is trending better though on eps so that’s good, let’s just clean up Alaska. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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