TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yeah gfs still playing frontsie backsie. Is it? Looks way offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Is it? Looks way offshore Brushes the Cape and SE MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Gefs closer for Monday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Don't do it...... 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Don't do it...... Lol it is a big push west on GEFS too bad. What a juicy system! 1-2” qpf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the record RNA played a large role, though I'm sure the HC acted as a source of constructive interference for the deconstructive interference lol I remember you and I having this conversation last year, when this HC stuff was young. You were asking me about the 'effects' of it during the respective ENSO climates? I remember speculating that it may be more of dimming factor for El Nino's. The reasoning was entirely intuitive, mind you. HC and it's effect manifold is all still on the discovery table anyway. The papers/climate I've read about it seems to be open to debate... That said, the La Nina is a stronger easterly trade scenario. And HC expansion has an easterly trade mass, regardless. ... So it it is easy to see where I'm going with that. El Nino on the other hand enforces a break-down in the trade momentum... etc etc --> warming waters moving E across the Basin in the generic sense. That would be intrinsically in conflict with said HC momentum/assumption. ( again agian again ..we are juggling 'tendencies', not absolutes - people read this stuff ( if ever lol ...), and tend to think big ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs closer for Monday So is the Tobin. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don't do it...... Scooter knows? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I remember you and I having this conversation last year, when this HC stuff was young. You were asking me about the 'effects' of it during the respective ENSO climates? I remember speculating that it may be more of dimming factor for El Nino's. The reasoning was entirely intuitive, mind you. HC and it's effect manifold is all still on the discovery table anyway. The papers/climate I've read about it seems to be open to debate... That said, the La Nina is a stronger easterly trade scenario. And HC expansion has an easterly trade mass, regardless. ... So it it is easy to see where I'm going with that. El Nino on the other hand enforces a break-down in the trade momentum... etc etc --> warming waters moving E across the Basin in the generic sense. That would be intrinsically in conflict with said HC momentum/assumption. ( again agian again ..we are juggling 'tendencies', not absolutes - people read this stuff ( if ever lol ...), and tend to think big ). Well, certainly ENSO events have always been more and less coupled with the atmosphere, which the MEI attempts to quantify. It was always apparent that this particular cool ENSO event was very well coupled, as opposed to least year's event. I buy into what you are saying to a degree, but you do seem to kind of find a way to attribute everything to the HC. For instance, last year the la nina didn't act like a la nina because the HC nullifies ENSO...but this year, its constructively interfering with ENSO. Just seems a bit nebulous and perhaps overstated to me. Not trying to be a dick...I get that this is a novel concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We have just sort of stagnated in this compression induced meteorological purgatory of sort....once something, anything starts to change, that should "stir the pot", so to speak. Really ... this is entirely the whole package of cause-and-effect circuitry of the Archembault paper. Yup. Status quo means balance, thus rest. Something imposes change to a system, the balance is off ... in order to get back to balance = storm. That's it ... That is why all modes --> modality, regardless of whether it involves NAO this ... PNA that... WPO this ... EPO that.... If these are in stasis, and something disrupts the status quo ... = storm. I'm just entering that the H.A. stuff is applicable to all of nature, really ..certainly to the nature of weather restoring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Scooter knows? Nothing is ever zero, but I give it a very low chance of happening. Even the half cocked Canadian and Ukie laugh at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Scooter knows? That's disturbing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don't do it...... My left eye is starting to twitch..i can feel it starting to rope me in. 1/8 looks interesting, at least for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 35 minutes ago, weathafella said: Nothing says wonderful like a dank dark drizzly day in the 30s… With more to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 GFS actually has the 1/7 event now, though it’s a bit too far west for good snows. Still way out there, but EPS/Euro suite has been entertaining that system. So if you want something to latch onto, that system would likely be the best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, certainly ENSO events have always been more and less coupled with the atmosphere, which the MEI attempts to quantify. It was always apparent that this particular cool ENSO event was very well coupled, as opposed to least year's event. I buy into what you are saying to a degree, but you do seem to kind of find a way to attribute everything to the HC. For instance, last year the la nina didn't act like a la nina because the HC nullifies ENSO...but this year, its constructively interfering with ENSO. Just seems a bit nebulous and perhaps overstated to me. Not trying to be a dick...I get that this is a novel concept. I don't do that. When it comes up...such as Will's ( correct) observation, that there is blocking at high latitudes and the oddities in the results here...etc, then it becomes relevant as any possible aspect of speculation. I don't go out of my way, and I can prove that. I don't really care if folks accept this gunk, or pin it on me...? But "everything" in the above context, is bullshit just the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS actually has the 1/7 event now, though it’s a bit too far west for good snows. Still way out there, but EPS/Euro suite has been entertaining that system. So if you want something to latch onto, that system would likely be the best shot. I think that is the one that may have some hope...just an educated guess, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GFS actually has the 1/7 event now, though it’s a bit too far west for good snows. Still way out there, but EPS/Euro suite has been entertaining that system. So if you want something to latch onto, that system would likely be the best shot. Was just going to post that.. also think the 1/3 storm is still on life support but there’s a chance.. 6 of the individual GEFS have a significant 6”+ snowfall for SNE. With about 10 of them showing at least 2-4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't do that. When it comes up...such as Will's ( correct observation, that there is blocking at high latitudes and the oddities of the result here...etc), then it becomes relevant as any possible aspect of speculation. I don't go out of my way, and I can prove that. I don't really care if folks accept this gunk, or pin it on me...? But "everything" is bullshit just the same. It just seems common sense to me that an NAO block in conjunction with a record RNA pulse could do that, anyway....I mean, we have always had certain patterns more prone to compression. And what we do know is 1) HC didn't seem to constructively interfere with ENSO last year 2) It doesn't seem to be deconstructively interfering this year. Just some casual observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Was just going to post that.. also think the 1/3 storm is still on life support but there’s a chance.. 6 of the individual GEFS have a significant 6”+ snowfall for SNE. With about 10 of them showing at least 2-4” I’m completely ignoring the 1/3 system until non-GFS guidance shows anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Many will still have to wait until after the 15th i believe, If by then it still looks like crap then................. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even though they like to troll and bust balls a lot, I think its only fair to give credit to the guys like @qg_omega, @forkyforkand @Torch Tiger this month. I feel like it would be hypocritical not to because at the end of the day, their slew of warm graphics ended up more right than wrong this month. Kudos, and I stand corrected with respect to December. That said, I still feel better times are ahead later this season. We'll see. I never forecasted off the slew of (sometimes) warm graphics...and they weren't always warm, there have been plenty of differences in modeling and ensembles throughout the month 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: I never forecasted off the slew of (sometimes) warm graphics...and they weren't always warm, there have been plenty of differences in modeling and ensembles throughout the month No sarcasm intended...just honestly trying to credit your overall conceptualization, which proved more correct than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 The warmth was IMO not really in question. I mean yeah, it's likely warmer than many thought, but I don't feel it ever had a cold look. I guess for me, it's the lack of precip from systems like SWFE. That I did not anticipate back earlier in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: No sarcasm intended...just honestly trying to credit your overall conceptualization, which proved more correct than not. NP didn't take it that way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The warmth was IMO not really in question. I mean yeah, it's likely warmer than many thought, but I don't feel it ever had a cold look. I guess for me, it's the lack of precip from systems like SWFE. That I did not anticipate back earlier in the month. I'm just writing up a review now...while certainly not frigid, I expected it to be near normal to perhaps seasonably cold....but yea, what really killed us was the compression between that stagnant RNA/NAO couplet. The warmth in and of itself was not prohibitive to at least near climo snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 At least we can post about the proper name of a popular Chinese dish, and Hadley Christine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: NP didn't take it that way I think sometimes when people often post what the majority doesn't want to hear, they can get labeled as a troll....but its important to not allow that emotion to turn the majority into the trolls. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m completely ignoring the 1/3 system until non-GFS guidance shows anything. This. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS actually has the 1/7 event now, though it’s a bit too far west for good snows. Still way out there, but EPS/Euro suite has been entertaining that system. So if you want something to latch onto, that system would likely be the best shot. Winter 2021/22, it's perpetually only 8 days away.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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