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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was always perilous for NYC points southward, but once that RNA got into record territory, SNE was sank, too.....despite blocking. TBH, we probably would have seen more snow without the block. It would have been warmer, but there would have been more storminess owed to less compression.

Agree. If we didn’t have blocking we would have had more precipitation but I think temps would have been warmer. 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Agree. If we didn’t have blocking we would have had more precipitation but I think temps would have been warmer. 

.....And I think all of us would have taken that. its a catch 22....going into it, you say "hey, the pattern is not awful, we'll have our chances..I'll take it", but if said chances go belly up, you want out and can't get out. :lol:

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He usually likes or replies to every response on his FB updates...on the last one, I said "seems like the favorable stretch for the NE is getting pushed back", and he never touched it. lol
 

I know you and Jerry follow him, but him and DT to me have struggled for years . Not that any Mets have done that well in these Nina winters 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I know you and Jerry follow him, but him and DT to me have struggled for years . Not that any Mets have done that well in these Nina winters 

Larry has done very well past couple of years....DT has been awful. Honestly, Cosgrove absolutely nailed last winter.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not really...we've had plenty of La Nina ratters....the weird part is struggling in a La Nina when there has been a lot of high latitude blocking.

I know this is annoying mantra at this point...  but, imho the HC shit is imposing. It manifests as greater gradient --> speed saturation of the flow. Basically then situating blocking over the top, which intrinsically is a wave signal from the N forcing the jets south, means those are competing forces.  

I think what we are seeing in all this 'destructive/negative interference' is at minimum, partially related to that competition. 

Just a furthering concept:  CC has added 3 to 5 dm to the total integral of the tropical/sub-tropical Walker circulation since 1980 - according to survey/climate papers back in 2018 - can't imagine that's gone the other way since... And that may seem subtle, but it's like with the sun?   

It's like where .1% dip in total radiative output of old sol, has a big response in the atmosphere here on Earth.  There's a relativity to it, because that .1% at the sun's end becomes a rather large issue for a tiny world that is sensitive. 

 

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Even though they like to troll and bust balls a lot, I think its only fair to give credit to the guys like @qg_omega, @forkyforkand @Torch Tiger this month. I feel like it would be hypocritical not to because at the end of the day, their slew of warm graphics ended up more right than wrong this month.

Kudos, and I stand corrected with respect to December.

That said, I still feel better times are ahead later this season.

We'll see.

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know this is annoying mantra at this point...  but, imho the HC shit is imposing. It manifests as greater gradient --> speed saturation of the flow. Basically then situating blocking over the top, which intrinsically is a wave signal from the N forcing the jets south, means those are competing forces.  

I think what we are seeing in all this 'destructive/negative interference' is at minimum, partially related to that competition. 

Just a furthering concept:  CC has added 3 to 5 dm to the total integral of the tropical/sub-tropical Walker circulation since 1980 - according to survey/climate papers back in 2018 - can't imagine that's gone the other way since... And that may seem subtle, but it's like with the sun?   

It's like where .1% dip in total radiative output of old sol, has a big response in the atmosphere here on Earth.  There's a relativity to it, because that .1% at the sun's end becomes a rather large issue for a tiny world that is sensitive. 

 

I think the record RNA played a large role, though I'm sure the HC acted as a source of constructive interference for the deconstructive interference lol

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27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know this is annoying mantra at this point...  but, imho the HC shit is imposing.

I think it was Raindance (I could be wrong) who posted research showing the HC expansion is a big deal in summer, but not winter.  As compressed as the flow is in our region, there is no such problem out west.  Could it be the compression we are experiencing is primarily a La Nina issue?

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