PhineasC Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Phinn comes to my mind, He moved up to NNE and winter has gone to sh it the last 2 years, Hope he's willing to take one for the team. LOL not my fault it turned out NE snow climo was overhyped and destined to crash back to earth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: How about General Cosgrove? - can’t deal with snowless winter He has been backing away from the favorable period post holidays in the NE without acknowledging that he's doing so...that aggravates me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 He usually likes or replies to every response on his FB updates...on the last one, I said "seems like the favorable stretch for the NE is getting pushed back", and he never touched it. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was always perilous for NYC points southward, but once that RNA got into record territory, SNE was sank, too.....despite blocking. TBH, we probably would have seen more snow without the block. It would have been warmer, but there would have been more storminess owed to less compression. Agree. If we didn’t have blocking we would have had more precipitation but I think temps would have been warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, Allsnow said: Agree. If we didn’t have blocking we would have had more precipitation but I think temps would have been warmer. .....And I think all of us would have taken that. its a catch 22....going into it, you say "hey, the pattern is not awful, we'll have our chances..I'll take it", but if said chances go belly up, you want out and can't get out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: .....And I think all of us would have taken that. its a catch 22....going into it, you say "hey, the pattern is not awful, we'll have our chances..I'll take it", but if said chances go belly up, you want out and can't get out. Facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 The worst pattern imaginable is a pattern that isn't ostensibly bad enough to be alarming, but ends up bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He usually likes or replies to every response on his FB updates...on the last one, I said "seems like the favorable stretch for the NE is getting pushed back", and he never touched it. lol I know you and Jerry follow him, but him and DT to me have struggled for years . Not that any Mets have done that well in these Nina winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The worst pattern imaginable is a pattern that isn't ostensibly bad enough to be alarming, but ends up bad. SBD patterns....silent but deadly assassins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I know you and Jerry follow him, but him and DT to me have struggled for years . Not that any Mets have done that well in these Nina winters Larry has done very well past couple of years....DT has been awful. Honestly, Cosgrove absolutely nailed last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Larry has done very well past couple of years....DT has been awful. Honestly, Cosgrove absolutely nailed last winter. Fisher may have done the best . At least that I’ve seen. He’s nailed this winter thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Fisher may have done the best . At least that I’ve seen. He’s nailed this winter thus far Kind of right for the wrong reason...I don't think he expected the blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kind of right for the wrong reason...I don't think he expected the blocking. Kind of like the inverse of my 2014-2015 season, in which I nailed sensible weather, but misdiagnosed the arctic. Still early, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I know you and Jerry follow him, but him and DT to me have struggled for years . Not that any Mets have done that well in these Nina winters Agree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How about General Cosgrove? - can’t deal with snowless winter General Cosgrove Special is $95.96.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 If you go on Cosgrove's site, pull up his forecast from last season....it was very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Not really...we've had plenty of La Nina ratters....the weird part is struggling in a La Nina when there has been a lot of high latitude blocking. I know this is annoying mantra at this point... but, imho the HC shit is imposing. It manifests as greater gradient --> speed saturation of the flow. Basically then situating blocking over the top, which intrinsically is a wave signal from the N forcing the jets south, means those are competing forces. I think what we are seeing in all this 'destructive/negative interference' is at minimum, partially related to that competition. Just a furthering concept: CC has added 3 to 5 dm to the total integral of the tropical/sub-tropical Walker circulation since 1980 - according to survey/climate papers back in 2018 - can't imagine that's gone the other way since... And that may seem subtle, but it's like with the sun? It's like where .1% dip in total radiative output of old sol, has a big response in the atmosphere here on Earth. There's a relativity to it, because that .1% at the sun's end becomes a rather large issue for a tiny world that is sensitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Even though they like to troll and bust balls a lot, I think its only fair to give credit to the guys like @qg_omega, @forkyforkand @Torch Tiger this month. I feel like it would be hypocritical not to because at the end of the day, their slew of warm graphics ended up more right than wrong this month. Kudos, and I stand corrected with respect to December. That said, I still feel better times are ahead later this season. We'll see. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I know this is annoying mantra at this point... but, imho the HC shit is imposing. It manifests as greater gradient --> speed saturation of the flow. Basically then situating blocking over the top, which intrinsically is a wave signal from the N forcing the jets south, means those are competing forces. I think what we are seeing in all this 'destructive/negative interference' is at minimum, partially related to that competition. Just a furthering concept: CC has added 3 to 5 dm to the total integral of the tropical/sub-tropical Walker circulation since 1980 - according to survey/climate papers back in 2018 - can't imagine that's gone the other way since... And that may seem subtle, but it's like with the sun? It's like where .1% dip in total radiative output of old sol, has a big response in the atmosphere here on Earth. There's a relativity to it, because that .1% at the sun's end becomes a rather large issue for a tiny world that is sensitive. I think the record RNA played a large role, though I'm sure the HC acted as a source of constructive interference for the deconstructive interference lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 If it can't get worse, it can only get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Nothing says wonderful like a dank dark drizzly day in the 30s… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: Nothing says wonderful like a dank dark drizzly day I’m the 30s… Heroin and fentanyl for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Nothing says wonderful like a dank dark drizzly day in the 30s… Ineedsnow and Mitch slapping dongs . They love this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ineedsnow and Mitch slapping dongs . They love this In the warm season. Wood chippers are currently starting and warming up in Srn VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The worst pattern imaginable is a pattern that isn't ostensibly bad enough to be alarming, but ends up bad. If it's gonna be bad then give me 60s and sun. These rainy, dreary days are disgusting. We're getting Seattle's weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Congrats Delmarva on 3-6” Sunday night ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I know this is annoying mantra at this point... but, imho the HC shit is imposing. I think it was Raindance (I could be wrong) who posted research showing the HC expansion is a big deal in summer, but not winter. As compressed as the flow is in our region, there is no such problem out west. Could it be the compression we are experiencing is primarily a La Nina issue? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Yeah gfs still playing frontsie backsie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Meanwhile, the mighty NAM does not like the second-wave theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Meanwhile, the mighty NAM does not like the second-wave theory. It's way too early to go by the NAM model. I wouldn't even look at that right now till we get closer to the Saturday time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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