January 2022 Obs/Disco

[Heisy]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know you guys … it’s not as far fetched as we think that ice and/or mix could creep toward S VT/NH over the 1st .. 2nd - talking just prior to the ANA/frontal wave the GFS is pimping. 

some guidance hitting again at weightier high pressure setting up and  with that type of flat open characteristic of the overall … if cold gets underneath it would be back built …. We’re not there yet but there’s both hints and time 

I'll pull a Will here and say that the 00z nam also made a trend towards what we'd want to see. More lagging of southern vort, more separation. End of the run so doesnt mean much, hopefully we see that continue

[powderfreak]

Very little snow into later January.  Folks melting down.  Futility talk. Then the best winter on record occurs after January 25th for many of the forum.  Way too early to worry.  You get a big month and all is well.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

As a long time weenie, I would just say don’t get sucked into the analfrontal deals

I don’t really think of them as real possibilities… more like “placeholders“… Kind of like the models are making reservations in case they change their mind. I think I’ve seen one successful ANA verify. I’ve come to find that more often they either evolve into an actual cyclones or they go the other way and just become sharp cold fronts

[snowfan]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Very little snow into later January.  Folks melting down.  Futility talk.  Then the best winter on record occurs after January 15th for many of the forum.  Way too early to worry.

That first pic is so dang good. The light…..geesh.

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

As a long time weenie, I would just say don’t get sucked into the analfrontal deals

That's good advice. Analfrontal is deviant, especially for sucked weenies.

What the 18z GFS is showing isn't really anafrontal. If you only look at the surface graphics, if looks like that. But if you look at H5 and H3 you see there is a legitimate southern stream wave. Problem is there isn't enough support for this robust look right now.

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don’t really think of them as real possibilities… more like “placeholders“… Kind of like the models are making reservations in case they change their mind. I think I’ve seen one successful ANA verify. I’ve come to find that more often they either evolve into an actual cyclones or they go the other way and just become sharp cold fronts

I've seen plenty verify as snow, especially in the higher terrain of VT and NH.  Low level temps in the coastal plain are often problematic. Ana's are kind of what we call the rare scenario in between the full cyclone and frontal crossing. I agree most do go one way or the other.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Very little snow into later January.  Folks melting down.  Futility talk. Then the best winter on record occurs after January 15th for many of the forum.  Way too early to worry.  You get a big month and all is well.

It wasn’t until 1/27/15 when the blizzard hit..I mean pretty much the whole month of January was over before it got going that year. So ya, your point is very well taken  and accurate. 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This has been the trend today, IMO. GFS has been getting pretty close to mix storm here if not an outright snowstorm.

Yeah I’m not convinced we ignore that down into central NE until 72 hrs no.

Could end up a longer duration transitional ptype event.

I gotta think you’re snowing in NNE above that boundary because that’s pretty cold near by southern QUE/SE Ontario so the thermal gradients would be packed. 

[ice1972]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It wasn’t until 1/27/15 when the blizzard hit..I mean pretty much the whole month of January was over before it got going that year. So ya, your point is very well taken  and accurate. 

Teach me how to be ok with winter getting it’s act together late January when there’s only like three weeks left to actual winter…..idk what people smoke in here

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Teach me how to be ok with winter getting it’s act together late January when there’s only like three weeks left to actual winter…..idk what people smoke in here

So what you are saying, is that in SNE, winter is really just Dec 15th to about Feb 15th?  Gawdamn shortest season out of the 4!

[dendrite]

I don't care how much it snows, but this run we've been on with warm winter mins has been great. The last time I had a min colder than -1F COVID was just barely beginning to be reported in the country.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I've seen plenty verify as snow, especially in the higher terrain of VT and NH.  Low level temps in the coastal plain are often problematic. Ana's are kind of what we call the rare scenario in between the full cyclone and frontal crossing. I agree most do go one way or the other.

Plus I wonder … you can also get an initiation of upslope snow happening pretty quick when cold air floods in and pushes a wet airmass up the topography etc.

ANAs are mid-level mechanics though where there is still strong jet running parallel to the boundary over pass-through …. pulling moisture back across the boundary interface usually some 8000 feet up.

Other aspect to your point is that your higher elevation up there may allow the precipitation actually make it to the ground because a lot of times what’s going on is that the models are not seeing evaporation going on below the fall column under the ANA area so they got fallacious QPF 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don't care how much it snows, but this run we've been on with warm winter mins has been great. The last time I had a min colder than -1F COVID was just barely beginning to be reported in the country.

But isn’t that bad for soil chemistry the following farming season?

I thought frozen ground was better for keeping nitrogen closer to the surface… Which would be particularly useful in a year where there’s less snow because snow is the nitrogen fix; so if you have less of it you don’t want it percolating down deep below root levels. 

It’s one of those things where I kind of understood it but didn’t dig very deep when I read about it in all honesty

[ice1972]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

So what you are saying, is that in SNE, winter is really just Dec 15th to about Feb 15th?  Gawdamn shortest season out of the 4!

For the goods that’s exactly what I’m saying…..everyone knows and tells everyone else not to expect the goods until late December and while some try very hard to say late February into March is also winter nobody really believes that…..this is why I am baffled when the same folks argue it’s not…..but then somehow this season it’s fine to complain how bad it is…..I’ve complained in late December before and everyone was like “rookie”…..lol

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

So what you are saying, is that in SNE, winter is really just Dec 15th to about Feb 15th?  Gawdamn shortest season out of the 4!

Don’t forget the winter between April 11 and June 5th …

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Don’t forget the winter between April 11 and June 5th …

That can be more psychologically damaging to some on this forum than actual meteorological winter. 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

But isn’t that bad for soil chemistry the following farming season?

I thought frozen ground was better for keeping nitrogen closer to the surface… Which would be particularly useful in a year where there’s less snow because snow is the nitrogen fix; so if you have less of it you don’t want it percolating down deep below root levels. 

It’s one of those things where I kind of understood it but didn’t dig very deep when I read about it in all honesty

To be honest my ground rarely freezes much below the surface here unless there's no snow cover. When I have 8"+ of pack my 6" soil temp usually bottoms out around 32-33F. I changed it up this summer and have sensors at 4" and 8" so I'm curious how low the 32F can get.

Right now the pack is a dense 7". 4" down is 35F while 8" down is 36F.

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I'll pull a Will here and say that the 00z nam also made a trend towards what we'd want to see. More lagging of southern vort, more separation. End of the run so doesnt mean much, hopefully we see that continue

I don’t think that southern stream feature has much of a chance frankly unless it ends up correcting much more powerful. Not impossible but less likely

perfect reason to have it go ahead and happen where it’s just strong enough lol.  Otherwise hgts are so high over adjacent southeast that as a it comes in it’s just going to compress the flow/speed shear will absorb it. 
 

 

[dryslot]

0Z GFS looking a lot flatter for 01/02, More of a overunning look.

[PhineasC]

LOL at the 00z GFS.

[dryslot]

Thats warning snow from DC into SNE.......lol

[MJO812]

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL at the 00z GFS.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

GFYes please

[Typhoon Tip]

I still think that’s over baked with that follow up southern trough thing…

The thing is … it can happen. Yup

but there are more reasons to be suspect of that. Ridging  in the southeast is one but the other… How many times have shortwaves been over amplified by the GFS in that time range. It did pay off in the last system remember the euro actually had it no event till 36 hours out even though it turned out to be crap and rain and whatever, GFS it saw it first. 

I’m really more interested in the lead stuff trending colder like Phinny and I were tracking. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know you guys … it’s not as far fetched as we think that ice and/or mix could creep toward S VT/NH over the 1st .. 2nd - talking just prior to the ANA/frontal wave the GFS is pimping. 

some guidance hitting again at weightier high pressure setting up and  with that type of flat open characteristic of the overall … if cold gets underneath it would be back built …. We’re not there yet but there’s both hints and time 

Long shot for SNE.....hard sell.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Look at how narrow those fields are. Testament to compression I guess  

This whole b-c passage is kind of like a pseudo H.A. correction event.  The lower latitude ridge is really in process of progressing east - so there’s action at synoptic inflection, so to speak. It’s  just is getting crowded by the eager trough arriving.  One can wonder if the trough slows down just a little bit and timing am I actually open the door for a little bit more of a New Jersey model type low. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Look at how narrow those fields are. Testament to compression I guess  

This whole b-c passage is kind of like a pseudo H.A. correction event.  The lower latitude ridge is really in process of progressing east - so there’s action at synoptic inflection, so to speak. It’s  just is getting crowded by the eager trough arriving.  One can wonder if the trough slows down just a little bit and timing am I actually open the door for a little bit more of a New Jersey model type low. 

That run is all wrong.....shift the heart of that FU sliver about 12mi south, and that should cover it.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Long shot for SNE.....hard sell.

Well yeah… I was trying to throw central New England folks a bone. 

Funny thing is if the Gfs corrects another tick like the one it just did then we’re probably getting ice down to the pike And west of Methuen.  
lol. Jk

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Well yeah… I was trying to throw central New England folks a bone. 

Funny thing is if the Gfs corrects another tick like the one it just did then we’re probably getting ice down to the pike And west of Methuen.  
lol. Jk

I'm all set with power outages on NY....keep it west.