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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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19 minutes ago, George001 said:

If this storm lives up to it’s potential, it will be measured in feet, not inches and it would be a widespread area too. From what I see there is both very strong northern stream energy and a very strong southern stream energy. There are like 4-5 pieces of energy, and if even 2 of them phase it’s a big storm. If everything phases, in my opinion the low will deepen even more than the models are saying right now, possibly all the way to the 940s or even 930s. I’ve never seen so many pieces of energy that strong so close together on the models, last time we got a low that deepened to the 960s (mid March 2018), the much of the region saw 18-24 inches with isolated 24-30 totals with blizzard conditions. We had a monster blizzard with a low in the 960s, if it gets down to the 940s or 930s which could happen if this maximizes it’s potential, there is a very real chance of a widespread 40-48 inches with an isolated 48-60. That is what a low that gets down to the 930s that stalls over the cape would do. Due to how many pieces of energy there are and how strong each piece is, there is a lot of room for error in my opinion. Even if only 2-3 pieces phase, if it comes up the coast that’s still a huge storm. 

Just think once you finish the bottle, Could be 60"+ totals and snow for weeks and weeks!!!

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52 minutes ago, George001 said:

If this storm lives up to it’s potential, it will be measured in feet, not inches and it would be a widespread area too. From what I see there is both very strong northern stream energy and a very strong southern stream energy. There are like 4-5 pieces of energy, and if even 2 of them phase it’s a big storm. If everything phases, in my opinion the low will deepen even more than the models are saying right now, possibly all the way to the 940s or even 930s. I’ve never seen so many pieces of energy that strong so close together on the models, last time we got a low that deepened to the 960s (mid March 2018), the much of the region saw 18-24 inches with isolated 24-30 totals with blizzard conditions. We had a monster blizzard with a low in the 960s, if it gets down to the 940s or 930s which could happen if this maximizes it’s potential, there is a very real chance of a widespread 40-48 inches with an isolated 48-60. That is what a low that gets down to the 930s that stalls over the cape would do. Due to how many pieces of energy there are and how strong each piece is, there is a lot of room for error in my opinion. Even if only 2-3 pieces phase, if it comes up the coast that’s still a huge storm. 

Lillie’s to 80

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1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Are there actually five streams in the northern and western hemisphere? Or are we tapping the southern and eastern hemispheres?

They're going the opposite direction, but we're ripping them over the equator and into it too. I'm not even sure which way my toilet water will flush down right now.

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6 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Hopefully on Britsh Air and be mask-free.  In any case you'll be able to ditch the mask in heathrow.

Actually I’d rather keep the mask on when I’m in close quarters because I don’t want to be stranded for five days in London if I get exposed. I think I wanna miss the storm at the end of the month?

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1 hour ago, George001 said:

If this storm lives up to it’s potential, it will be measured in feet, not inches and it would be a widespread area too. From what I see there is both very strong northern stream energy and a very strong southern stream energy. There are like 4-5 pieces of energy, and if even 2 of them phase it’s a big storm. If everything phases, in my opinion the low will deepen even more than the models are saying right now, possibly all the way to the 940s or even 930s. I’ve never seen so many pieces of energy that strong so close together on the models, last time we got a low that deepened to the 960s (mid March 2018), the much of the region saw 18-24 inches with isolated 24-30 totals with blizzard conditions. We had a monster blizzard with a low in the 960s, if it gets down to the 940s or 930s which could happen if this maximizes it’s potential, there is a very real chance of a widespread 40-48 inches with an isolated 48-60. That is what a low that gets down to the 930s that stalls over the cape would do. Due to how many pieces of energy there are and how strong each piece is, there is a lot of room for error in my opinion. Even if only 2-3 pieces phase, if it comes up the coast that’s still a huge storm. 

Good evening George. I believe many of our forum members are quietly hoping for your possible prediction to verify. This in spite of the fact that (by reaction) your giving Joey Chestnut a run for his crown. As always …

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3 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Way out in la-la-land (outside of 3 days) the 00z GFS snow depth change maps have 2' amounts in SEMA. Now to get some consistency and agreement on models. Way overdue, increasing interest and threat.   

That's been going back and forth the last few runs, one run had me at 40 inches then PF at 48 inches, at least something to watch.

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1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good evening George. I believe many of our forum members are quietly hoping for your possible prediction to verify. This in spite of the fact that (by reaction) your giving Joey Chestnut a run for his crown. As always …

Good evening. I am hoping that kicker energy crashing into the west coast weakens or slows down, despite that being an issue on the Canadian, the low still deepens to the 960s. Some of the southern energy is buried into the southwest as well, so on this run of the Canadian it is a sloppier, more progressive solution. However, I see this as a good thing in that with a sloppy phase and issues with the kicker, it still manages to scrape eastern mass and has a very powerful ocean low. This gives credit to the idea of what the ceiling could be if everything comes together, stronger low, earlier closing off, slower storm, farther west low, more expansive precipitation shield. 

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