40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It might be ... It doesn't stop the significance of the signal, nor (probably) the significance of the storm itself if it misses, but try explaining that to anyone that lives between NYC and CAR. I'm confident enough to fire a thread off even at D7.5 which is probably more normal for me, but I cannot get around the risk of this region watching a dream bomb on radar, despite even adept foresight. I was explaining earlier that that the runs that revert to progressivity bias, whiff... Runs that show that backing off ( and the flow its self slowing enough that S/W have bigger mechanical force in the stream(s)) end up like the 18z-esque. The GEFs ensemble mean is showing dangerous spread west with Cat 4 hurricane pressure depths... there's got to be some solutions in that membership that best even this operational one - wow. I think I'll let the chips fall where they may if the 18z EPS trends favorably... I've been on the fence with this f'cker all day. Absolutely...though, I will say that I was pretty impressed that this forum was, for the most part, able to compartmentalize their frustration and not allow it to bias perception in relation to what was a nice long range call at distant lead times last week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Something like that 'bomb on rad E only' happened near the end of 2014's winter... March. We had a really fantastic beast out there, for days it was always within error margins to be historic like ...on land. But just never did and stayed just too far E. I think the Cape did okay. Heh, the other day ... folks were discussing/trying to recall Cape specials.. no one mentioned that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Absolutely...though, I will say that I was pretty impressed that this forum was, for the most part, able to compartmentalize their frustration and not allow it to bias perception in relation to what was a nice long range call at distant lead times last week. yeah ..honestly, the key is leave p-type out haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah ..honestly, the key is leave p-type out haha Leave precipitation vs cirrus out, in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Something like that 'bomb on rad E only' happened near the end of 2014's winter... March. We had a really fantastic beast out there, for days it was always within error margins to be historic like ...on land. But just never did and stayed just too far E. I think the Cape did okay. Heh, the other day ... folks were discussing/trying to recall Cape specials.. no one mentioned that one. I remember it...happened the week of my dad's death. I desperately needed an escape, but there wasn't one to be had. May have been a blessing in disguise because it allowed me to focus on processing my emotions as we buried him on that cold, blustery and dry March day. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Absolutely...though, I will say that I was pretty impressed that this forum was, for the most part, able to compartmentalize their frustration and not allow it to bias perception in relation to what was a nice long range call at distant lead times last week. Thanks man. Long way to go though with more whining, meh’s, and mini melts to fight off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thanks man. Long way to go though with more whining, meh’s, and mini melts to fight off. Yea, the whining is one thing, but aside from a few comments made in jest, no one really projected that frustration on to John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I remember it...happened the week of my dad's death. I desperately needed an escape, but there wasn't one to be had. May have been a blessing in disguise because it allowed me to focus on processing my emotions as we buried him on that cold, blustery and dry March day. Of course, I will always feel that truly epic next winter (2014-2015) was my dad giving me a wink from above. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Something like that 'bomb on rad E only' happened near the end of 2014's winter... March. We had a really fantastic beast out there, for days it was always within error margins to be historic like ...on land. But just never did and stayed just too far E. I think the Cape did okay. Heh, the other day ... folks were discussing/trying to recall Cape specials.. no one mentioned that one. 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I remember it...happened the week of my dad's death. I desperately needed an escape, but there wasn't one to be had. May have been a blessing in disguise because it allowed me to focus on processing my emotions as we buried him on that cold, blustery and dry March day. I think that was the last one I remember tracking with messenger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 THAT THERE IS "POTENTIAL." Could be a contender, consideration of timeframe (168h) that's all anyone can hope for. I think February is going to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, ROOSTA said: THAT THERE IS "POTENTIAL." Could be a contender, consideration of timeframe (168h) that's all anyone can hope for. I think February is going to deliver. I love that you still participate and track these. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 EPS is much improved out west. less of a kicker, which leads to a deeper, farther W trough as a result 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is much improved out west. less of a kicker, which leads to a deeper, farther W trough as a result That’s what I needed to see thanks !! spread? - if not too much to ask 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: That’s what I needed to see thanks !! spread? - if not too much to ask no problem! only goes to 144 so the SLPs aren't of much use, especially given the slightly slower solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: no problem! only goes to 144 so the SLPs aren't of much use, especially given the slightly slower solution Ah right. Forgot that limitation of the hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: no problem! only goes to 144 so the SLPs aren't of much use, especially given the slightly slower solution Heh...really would like to see that suite play out- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 26 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I love that you still participate and track these. I have to give credit to my elder sister (a teacher) who got me started at the grasshopper age of 6. I've forgotten most of what has been learned over the years. Florida is a bore with the exception of tropical season. Once in your blood it never just goes away. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3/26/14 was that obscene bomb. The Cape did get into part of the CCB but not the heart of it so they picked up like 8-12 instead of feet. They had some legit blizzard conditions though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 3/26/14 was that obscene bomb. The Cape did get into part of the CCB but not the heart of it so they picked up like 8-12 instead of feet. They had some legit blizzard conditions though. God, I remember that. Was in Falmouth for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 If this storm lives up to it’s potential, it will be measured in feet, not inches and it would be a widespread area too. From what I see there is both very strong northern stream energy and a very strong southern stream energy. There are like 4-5 pieces of energy, and if even 2 of them phase it’s a big storm. If everything phases, in my opinion the low will deepen even more than the models are saying right now, possibly all the way to the 940s or even 930s. I’ve never seen so many pieces of energy that strong so close together on the models, last time we got a low that deepened to the 960s (mid March 2018), the much of the region saw 18-24 inches with isolated 24-30 totals with blizzard conditions. We had a monster blizzard with a low in the 960s, if it gets down to the 940s or 930s which could happen if this maximizes it’s potential, there is a very real chance of a widespread 40-48 inches with an isolated 48-60. That is what a low that gets down to the 930s that stalls over the cape would do. Due to how many pieces of energy there are and how strong each piece is, there is a lot of room for error in my opinion. Even if only 2-3 pieces phase, if it comes up the coast that’s still a huge storm. 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, George001 said: If this storm lives up to it’s potential, it will be measured in feet, not inches and it would be a widespread area too. From what I see there is both very strong northern stream energy and a very strong southern stream energy. There are like 4-5 pieces of energy, and if even 2 of them phase it’s a big storm. If everything phases, in my opinion the low will deepen even more than the models are saying right now, possibly all the way to the 940s or even 930s. I’ve never seen so many pieces of energy that strong so close together on the models, last time we got a low that deepened to the 960s (mid March 2018), the much of the region saw 18-24 inches with isolated 24-30 totals with blizzard conditions. We had a monster blizzard with a low in the 960s, if it gets down to the 940s or 930s which could happen if this maximizes it’s potential, there is a very real chance of a widespread 40-48 inches with an isolated 48-60. That is what a low that gets down to the 930s that stalls over the cape would do. Due to how many pieces of energy there are and how strong each piece is, there is a lot of room for error in my opinion. Even if only 2-3 pieces phase, if it comes up the coast that’s still a huge storm. Brb with another costanza gif… 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 It could be the first octuple phaser 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, George001 said: If this storm lives up to it’s potential, it will be measured in feet, not inches and it would be a widespread area too. From what I see there is both very strong northern stream energy and a very strong southern stream energy. There are like 4-5 pieces of energy, and if even 2 of them phase it’s a big storm. If everything phases, in my opinion the low will deepen even more than the models are saying right now, possibly all the way to the 940s or even 930s. I’ve never seen so many pieces of energy that strong so close together on the models, last time we got a low that deepened to the 960s (mid March 2018), the much of the region saw 18-24 inches with isolated 24-30 totals with blizzard conditions. We had a monster blizzard with a low in the 960s, if it gets down to the 940s or 930s which could happen if this maximizes it’s potential, there is a very real chance of a widespread 40-48 inches with an isolated 48-60. That is what a low that gets down to the 930s that stalls over the cape would do. Due to how many pieces of energy there are and how strong each piece is, there is a lot of room for error in my opinion. Even if only 2-3 pieces phase, if it comes up the coast that’s still a huge storm. We all salute you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, George001 said: If this storm lives up to it’s potential, it will be measured in feet, not inches and it would be a widespread area too. From what I see there is both very strong northern stream energy and a very strong southern stream energy. There are like 4-5 pieces of energy, and if even 2 of them phase it’s a big storm. If everything phases, in my opinion the low will deepen even more than the models are saying right now, possibly all the way to the 940s or even 930s. I’ve never seen so many pieces of energy that strong so close together on the models, last time we got a low that deepened to the 960s (mid March 2018), the much of the region saw 18-24 inches with isolated 24-30 totals with blizzard conditions. We had a monster blizzard with a low in the 960s, if it gets down to the 940s or 930s which could happen if this maximizes it’s potential, there is a very real chance of a widespread 40-48 inches with an isolated 48-60. That is what a low that gets down to the 930s that stalls over the cape would do. Due to how many pieces of energy there are and how strong each piece is, there is a lot of room for error in my opinion. Even if only 2-3 pieces phase, if it comes up the coast that’s still a huge storm. the elusive five stream phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Leave it to george to take even this one too far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just broad brush 4-6ft across the entire region and sit back: 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Could be the first centuple bunner post, making history left and right here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, George001 said: If this storm lives up to it’s potential, it will be measured in feet, not inches and it would be a widespread area too. From what I see there is both very strong northern stream energy and a very strong southern stream energy. There are like 4-5 pieces of energy, and if even 2 of them phase it’s a big storm. If everything phases, in my opinion the low will deepen even more than the models are saying right now, possibly all the way to the 940s or even 930s. I’ve never seen so many pieces of energy that strong so close together on the models, last time we got a low that deepened to the 960s (mid March 2018), the much of the region saw 18-24 inches with isolated 24-30 totals with blizzard conditions. We had a monster blizzard with a low in the 960s, if it gets down to the 940s or 930s which could happen if this maximizes it’s potential, there is a very real chance of a widespread 40-48 inches with an isolated 48-60. That is what a low that gets down to the 930s that stalls over the cape would do. Due to how many pieces of energy there are and how strong each piece is, there is a lot of room for error in my opinion. Even if only 2-3 pieces phase, if it comes up the coast that’s still a huge storm. Just remember, it's not a lie if you believe it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 LOL 10 weenies per 10 minutes.....blinding rates 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: LOL 10 weenies per 10 minutes.....blinding rates In between bands too…during the dead zone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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