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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, The spacing is rather short between them, I think we get one of them though.

Depends on how things end up, obviously, but yeah if the first one keeps getting slower than the next one will be squashed. If it sped up, the opposite.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

But even that doesn’t have a raging pac jet slamming against the west coast head on. 

Progressive ( you now this just sayn' ..) doesn't mean fast in the sense of packed isohypses resulting in fast flow... Progressive means the L/W and S/W are moving east, faster relative to climo, and that storm tracks propagate right of the predecessor... so if you miss a storm E, the next one misses even farther east.. And models will bully waves in  -  the flow in the 12 Euro is progressive. The flow in the 18z GFS is pretty neutral.  That flow out there (abv), looks neutral, but saturated with gradient. 

 -EPO dump down Pacific-Canada, which will temporarily stall a L/W there.. .and hopefully for storm enthusiasts, splits a separate jet across southern Canada,

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully said confined space isn't the Bay of Fundy.

It might be ...  It doesn't stop the significance of the signal, nor (probably) the significance of the storm itself if it misses, but try explaining that to anyone that lives between NYC and CAR.

I'm confident enough to fire a thread off even at D7.5 which is probably more normal for me, but I cannot get around the risk of this region watching a dream bomb E on radar, despite even adept foresight.  

I was explaining earlier that that the runs that revert to progressivity bias, whiff...  Runs that show that backing off ( and the flow its self slowing enough that S/W have bigger mechanical force in the stream(s)) end up like the 18z-esque. 

The GEFs ensemble mean is showing dangerous spread west with Cat 4 hurricane pressure depths... there's got to be some solutions in that membership that best even this operational one - wow.   I think I'll let the chips fall where they may if the 18z EPS trends favorably... I've been on the fence with this f'cker all day.

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